This is peak season for player trades and free agent signings. Expect to see the biggest free agent names to sign, and a flurry of franchise-changing trades. Here's some things to watch for in the National League.
1. Parity Rules, Free Agent Spending is Everywhere
The Nashville Winter Meetings will provide evidence of a continued trend across baseball – bog-dollar free agent spending is everywhere and no longer confined to the big market, high-revenue teams like the Dodgers and Yankees.
MLB’s new collective bargaining agreement provides all clubs an additional $35M in annual revenue starting in 2013. Impact of this new cash began last year, as small-market clubs like the Cincinatti Reds re-signed Joey Votto to a 10 year, $225M extension, and the Tampa Rays extended Evan Longoria with an additional $100M for 10 years.
How does this play out in Nashville? I expect we’ll see surprising signings signed by smaller market clubs. Milwaukee may leverage Josh Hamilton’s long-time connection to Brewers’ coach Johnny Narron to sign him to his much-desired five or six year, $100M-plus contract. The Cincinnati Reds may keep adding players and payroll to acquire a true leadoff hitter and centre fielder in Michael Bourne.
National League signings seem a harder prediction than the American League. There’s a lot more mid-market clubs that will leverage the same pool of money to address their pitching and positional needs. But what I do know, is we’ll see some surprising NL signings that don’t match our long-held ideas of the senior circuit clubs.
2. Dodgers and Giants will Continue on Their Divergent Paths in Building for 2013.
There’s plenty long-standing rivalry between these two California franchises. The two clubs have witnessed very different recent histories; the Giants charting a path of stable ownership, a new stadium, rabid fan-base, pitching and smart player-development to win two World Championships. The Dodgers have had three ownership groups in ten years, a renovated (aged) stadium, inconsistent fan interest, big-money player transactions that defy all logic, and no post season success since 1988.
The Winter Meetings will clearly present these teams’ differing approaches.
The Dodgers are in on everybody. They’ve got an ownership group that’s stated the club has no payroll limitations. They’re on the verge of signing the richest television deal in sports history. They’re a club built for today, with a surprisingly aged core group of players. There’s few vacant positions, but there is space to upgrade the pitching rotation and bullpen. They’ll look to displace Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano at the back of the rotation with either Zack Greinke or Anibal Sanchez. These two pitchers are considered the cream of the pitching crop. As I said yesterday, Greinke looks poised to cash in on a deal in the vicinity of $170M for seven years. Sanchez, a solid number two starter may get his wish his desired five year, $90M contract. If the Dodgers can’t land a starting pitcher, they may look to shorten games by adding a reliever to the back of their bullpen. Closer Rafeal Soriano is the only veteran closer option would provide manager Don Mattingly greater comfort than incumbent closer Brandon League can provide.
In contrast, the Giants will look to address minor holes on a roster that’s won two of the last three World Series. The largest vacancy is in centre field, as Angel Pagan is trying to leverage BJ Upton’s new deal into his own four year, $40M contract. Considering Pagan’s checkered performance history, general manager Brian Sabean has reason to be wary of such an contract in what is a very deep centre field free agent market. He may re-up with Pagan, or await the centre fielder chair shuffle, see which player is still seeking a starting-position landing spot (my guess in Shane Victorino), and sign him to a team-friendly deal.
There’s always room to upgrade a team’s bullpen. While the Giants rode a strong bullpen to the World Series, teams can’t rely on such consistent bullpen performance year-after-year, especially considering the extra workload caused by a long playoff run. As the Giants have non-tendered Brian Wilson, Sabean must decide whether to keep Sergio Romo in the closer role, or add depth in the form of Jason Grilli or Koji Uhera.
3. Philadelphia Phillies will Add Offense and Youth Through a Center Field Addition.
The Phillies are an old group. They were built for a sustained win-now movement that finally faltered in 2012. While core players Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cliff Hamels cannot be counted on for further performance improvements, there’s enough there for a last-hope playoff run in 2013. What’s required is further offensive contribution, particularly in an outfield that currently features dregs Darin Ruf, John Mayberry and Dom Brown.
Michael Bourne and Angel Pagan would provide instant improvements to the Phillies offense and defense. They’re both amongst the top center field defenders. In the leadoff spot, either player would lengthen the Phillies lineup and provide a solid OBP player before the still-strong middle lineup combination of Utley-Howard-Ruiz.
I anticipate the Phillies will make a big splash in the Winter Meetings, locking up a key center fielder, while dabbling in the market for corner bat (Nick Swisher, Kevin Youkilis) that may also help.