A less-demanding defensive position than elsewhere on the diamond, first base, historically, has been occupied by power hitters. Larger, stronger, often less mobile players - think Mark McGwire, Jason Giambi, David Ortiz and more recently, Chris Davis - whose bats are more valuable than their glove often find themselves on the far right side of the infield.
As home run totals have dropped across the board, the prototypical hulking first baseman is being replaced by the 2013 edition: a player with less raw power, but a greater balance of tools in the bag. Is this trend going to stick around? These five players represent the future of the position, especially as the top first base prospects are years away from breaking into the big leagues.
Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
After a solid first full season with the D’Backs in 2012, Goldschmidt’s offense has improved so drastically that he has surpassed - or is well on his way to surpassing - all of his career bests. Through 99 games this season, the 25-year-old has a .314/.398/.553 line, which puts him into territory only Joey Votto has ventured into in the National League in recent years. Not only does Goldschmidt get on base, he can hit with immense power and drives in runs at an incredible rate. He has 25 doubles and 21 home runs, and leads the league with 80 runs batted in. Goldschmidt’s breakout 2013 is no fluke - the offensive talent was always there, and with increased experience and discipline at the plate, fantasy owners can expect the youngster to be a top pick at first base for years to come.
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Braves fans remember a Sports Illustrated cover from February, 2011 that featured Freeman and right fielder Jason Heyward suited up with the palm trees of Florida and the optimism of Spring Training in the background. Heyward was the young Brave expected to make the greater, more immediate impact, though where injuries and slumps have hampered him, Freeman has picked up the slack as the model of consistency and improvement in the Atlanta offense.
Already posessing the size, strength and uppercut swing of a power hitter, Freeman’s actual power numbers have been slower to come around, with 10 home runs through the first half of the season and an average of 22 over his first two seasons. A year removed from eyesight issues that may have robbed him of some selectivity at the plate, he is still learning to take walks and to cut down on his strikeouts. With a batting average that has hovered around .300 for most of the season, Freeman is already an asset as a fantasy first baseman. If he can add the element of a 30-home run, 100 RBI season, he will reach the upper-most echelon at his position.
Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
Hosmer's 2013 has been both thrilling and maddening, as many predicted this would be the year for him to break out offensively. With only one home run and 16 runs batted in through the first two months of the season, Hosmer’s readiness as a big leaguer came into question, though his numbers have since rocketed into respectability. The lefty-swinging Hosmer hit .232 last season, but was affected by .255 BABIP, which can have a pronounced impact on a hitter who doesn’t strike out a lot. In two full seasons, he has averaged 17 home runs, so fantasy owners will have to wait and see whether his power will evolve to the point where he becomes a 25-30 home run threat. As it is, Hosmer is a .290 hitter who won’t kill you with K’s, can steal you 15 bases, and just may become a bonafide slugger.
Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
General Manager Theo Epstein reaffirmed his commitment to Rizzo at first base in a big way this offseason, signing the 23-year-old to a six-year contract extension. While he is batting only .242 on the season, there is much to like about Rizzo’s offense as it is today. He combines both above-average power - 28 doubles and 14 home runs - with patience at the plate not normally seen in a young power hitter. Rizzo has walked in 10.7 percent of his at bats this season for a total of 45 bases on balls. The 97 games he has appeared in this season is a career high for a man who broke in with the Padres in 2011. Traded three times already in his very young career, the Cubs are invested in his growth with the team. The success of the lineup around him will undoubtedly affect his production numbers, and arguably the strongest farm system in the league is making strides every day towards being ready to support Rizzo.
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
The kayakers in the McCovey Cove waters have suffered through a bit of a drought, ironically, since the departure of Barry Bonds. The lefty-swinging Belt, since debuting with the Giants in 2011, has three “splash hits” to his credit, and with some tweaks to his game could be even more of a power threat. ESPN senior baseball writer Keith Law, long a believer in Belt, still has faith that changes to the mechanics of his swing will ultimately help him realize his potential. Giants fans, after a disappointing start to 2013, are significantly less patient.
Belt has a .263 batting average, 10 home runs and 39 runs batted in through the first half, all serviceable numbers for a Major Leaguer, but not for a starting first baseman on a contending team. A tall, lean athlete, Belt is far from a base-clogger, especially after stealing 12 bases last season. He finally has the consistent playing time he lacked from his debut - now fantasy owners must sit back and watch how he makes adjustments. He could be a breakout candidate for the second half of the season, or he could find himself back on Bruce Bochy’s bench.