The Major League Baseball season is getting into the swing of things as we approach the dog days of summer. This means that statistics are starting to stabilize and it is becoming easier to recognize who is slumping and who is streaking. This article will focus on the top players who are making an impact in fantasy leagues. Each player on this list have racked up a ton of fantasy points for fantasy owners and they would all be players to consider making a move for. Some of the players may surprise you and if you have a player like Carlos Gomez, who has benefitted from a lot of luck, it may be a good idea to try and trade them while their stock is high.
Some players have benefitted from some good luck, but others are showing true skill improvements. I used advanced statistical analysis to try and decide how these players have been having success compared to the rest of their careers. It’s very difficult to predict the future in baseball, as things are constantly changing on a daily basis. Over time, however, it seems that players’ numbers usually normalize and it is easier to rate players. I will refer to percentage rates a lot and will compare current numbers to those in past seasons to try and predict who can stay hot and who will not.
1. Jordan Zimmermann - SP - Washington Nationals (Season: 22 Points per start ; L15: 30.3)
In ESPN league's, Zimmerman has averaged 22 points per start over the span of the season. His last three starts, 30.3. That’s good enough to pace all pitchers. Watch for Zimmerman to continue his hot start. He has allowed a meager .824 WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning pitched) and has a very good K/BB ratio of 3.78. Zimmerman finished last season with a 2.94 ERA and his current ERA is 1.59. He won’t continue to average 30 points a start, but he will keep your walks, hits allowed and earned runs numbers down and while Zimmerman has never been known to strike out a ton of batters, he will be above average in almost every other category.
2. Miguel Cabrera - 3B - Detroit Tigers (Season: 4.4 Points per start; L15: 5.4)
Cabrera is a perennial power who was drafted at an average position of second overall in ESPN leagues. Cabrera is near the top of the league in batting average, hitting at a clip of .382. Cabrera’s K-rate is an astounding 11.3% which is over five percent below his career average. Expect Cabrera’s power numbers to improve though, as he has only hit a HR in 4% of his plate appearances, while in the past few seasons he has been closer to a six percent rate. Cabrera has been a little lucky as well with a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play, which is a statistic that can be compared to years past to figure out how lucky or unlucky a player may be when putting the ball in play) of .439. Cabrera’s career BABIP is .397, so expect the batting average numbers to drop and his Home Runs and Strikeouts to rise.
3. Evan Longoria - 3B - Tampa Bay Rays (Season: 3.3 Points per start; L15: 4.8)
Longoria is a career .279 hitter who is coming into the prime of his career in his sixth season as a major leaguer. Longoria has slugged 8 HRs already, but his K-rate, HR-rate and contact-rate (the percentage of times per plate appearance that the hitter puts the ball in play) are all in line with his career averages. Expect Longoria to draw a few more walks than he has been and also look for his batting average to fall from his torrid start of .331. Longoria’s BABIP is over 60 points higher than his career average (.422) and among one of the highest in the majors. Don’t expect that to keep up, but Longoria is still a solid player to have on your squad.
4. Felix Hernandez - SP - Seattle Mariners (Season: 22.3 Points per start; L15: 28)
Hernandez has been one of the best starting pitchers in the game over the past few seasons. He has not let down fantasy owner this year either. The Venezuelan native has allowed one run or less over his last five starts and has only allowed a total of three earned runs in his last 38 innings of work. Those numbers help to spell out the dominance of the 27-year-old. Hernandez’s advanced stats are equally as impressive, as he has a K/BB ratio of seven. Hernandez is about as dependable as it comes for a starter in the majors and expect him to continue his consistent ways.
5. Matt Harvey - SP - New York Mets (Season: 25.4 Points per start; L15: 25)
Harvey has been as hot as any starter in the league over the first month and a half of the season. The 24-year-old has allowed a total of seven earned runs in seven starts. Harvey was especially dominant in his last outing, as he tallied a complete game shutout, striking out 12 and allowing just one hit. Harvey leads the league in ERA and WHIP (1.28 and .689). While it is unlikely that Harvey will keep his numbers this low, he is still becoming one of the most respected young arms in the game today. Once hitters start to become more familiar with Harvey, expect his numbers to bounce a little higher though.
6. Carlos Gomez - OF - Milwaukee Brewers (Season: 3.3 Points per start; L15: 5.1)
Gomez might be the biggest surprise of any player on this list. He also is the luckiest with a BABIP of .484, nearly 150-points higher than his career average. Expect Gomez to see some serious drops in production. He is a career .254 hitter, that is currently batting .386. Gomez has always been a player who puts the ball in play frequently, boasting a career contact-rate of nearly 73 percent, but expect his strikeout numbers to increase. When dissecting the numbers of a player like this who is having a career or breakout year, it is difficult to decide if his numbers are representing an increase in skill or just luck. I would lean toward the luck argument and sell on Gomez while his stock is as high as ever.
7. Ian Kinsler - 2B - Texas Rangers (Season: 3.5 Points per start; L15: 3.5)
Kinsler has been captain consistency this year for fantasy baseball. Kinsler is one of the most solid choices at second base, but Kinsler has had a few surprises for fantasy baseball owners this season. His power numbers are not at a career-high, but are in line with the numbers he posted in 2009 and 2011 when he hit 31 and 32 HRs respectively. Kinsler is posting a career high contact-rate and will likely see a few more walks and strikeouts as the season progresses. Kinsler is a keeper right now and although he has not hit above .300 since 2008, he has a legitimate shot of flirting with that number this year.
8. Buster Posey - C - San Francisco Giants (Season: 2.8 Points per start; L15: 3.8)
Out of all of the position players on this list thus far, Posey probably has the most room for improvement as he is entering just his 4th-full season in the majors this year (and dealing with injuries in 2011 led to only 185 plate appearances). This makes it harder to get a baseline on his statistics and percentages. However, Posey has started to heat it up after a bit of a slow start. Posey is averaging 3.8 points per start over the last couple weeks. Most of Posey’s numbers are in line with his career averages, but unlike every other player on this list, Posey has actually been a little unlucky. Posting a below league average BABIP. Expect Posey to continue to post better numbers throughout the year as more of his hard hit balls start to find gaps.
9. Paul Goldschmidt -1B - Arizona Diamondbacks (Season: 3.3 Points per start; L15: 3.7)
Goldschmidt is only 25-years-old and is entering his second full season as a full-time player. This makes it a little more difficult when deciphering his statistics and predicting the future. Goldschmidt has been hot as of late, however, and as a young player who should be soon hitting his prime, I’d expect him to keep it up for the most part. Goldschmidt is posting an abnormally high BABIP of .430, so I would expect his numbers to fall a little. His current .308 batting average will likely drop, but expect Goldschmidt to continue his increased power surge as he continues to acclimate himself to major league pitching.
10. Nate McLouth - OF - Baltimore Orioles (Season: 3.4 Points per start; L15: 4.4)
McLouth is another fairly surprising name on this list. His numbers in the last 15 days absolutely warrant him a mention on the list though. The Oriole is a career .250 hitter who was considerably unlucky in the 2010 and 2011 campaigns. This year, he has gotten a few more breaks to the tune of a BABIP of .340. McLouth probably isn’t going to be on this list next month, but one must give him credit for putting the ball in play this season and not striking out as much as he normally does. Will this continue? One must ask themselves if it is likely for a 31-year-old journeyman to see a drastic increase in skills. Don’t expect McLouth to keep up his 10 percent K-rate, as his career number is 17.1 percent. McLouth’s power numbers may go up soon, but he is not likely to maintain his batting average and low strikeout numbers.