Through two games of play in the ALCS, the Detroit Tigers are up two game to none over the New York Yankees. Between the Yankees decimated offense and Detroit's strong starting pitching, it looks as though Detroit is a lock for their first World Series appearance since 2005.
However, Jim Leyland has a messy bullpen arrangement he'll need to settle. Whether it be through the remainder of the ALCS or in the World Series, bullpen management is an inevitable and critical part of the baseball postseason. Mixing and matching bullpen arms against the opposing lineup is the key to success in the late innings.
Jose Valverde has been the Tigers closer since his free agent signing at the start of the 2010 season. Leyland has been loyal to him through his three years in Detroit, but Valverde's performance in the 2012 postseason has shaken him from the closer role. Through 2.1 innings, he's allowed 7 runs with a 3.43 WHIP, a 27.0 ERA and two spectacular blown saves. Following his ALCS Game 1 meltdown, Leyland indicated that he would not remove the closers title from Valverde, but he may not be inserted in save situations in upcoming postseason games.
Leyland must walk a fine line, keeping his team happy and confident with his bullpen management, while assuaging his closer's ego, one that is slated for free agency this offseason and does not want to enter the bidding period with a 27.0 ERA to his name. I'll lay out the approaches Leyland's likely to use his bullpen arms for the remainder of the postseason, both this ALCS and in the World Series (assuming two games of data is any indication of the Yankees remote fighting chance).
1. Demote Jose Valverde to non-save situations, providing him the chance to improve his fastball speed and command in low-leverage situations. This is an easy move that provides Valverde the opportunity to work out his issues in low leverage situations. Leyland's been long-known as a manager loyal to his key players, so I expect he'll present this option to Valverde, stating this once he's rapidly improved his performance in such situations, he can be thrust back into the closer role.
2. Build a closer-by-committee bullpen utilizing the various arms available in the Detroit bullpen. Leyland was one of the pioneers of the closer-by-committee approach during his '90s days with the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. While every one bullpen arm available has their issues, Leyland has the pieces to cobble together a capable bullpen corps for the remainder of the post season. He'll use his bullpen arms in the following situations:
- Octavio Dotel is his veteran, been-with-13-teams, relief RHP. He holds a career 10.83 K/9 innings and shows no signs of slowing down in his age 39 season. He was called upon to save the Tigers' ALCS Game One after Valverde's blow-up and performed well. Dotel is death to RHBs as they have just a .524 OPS against him this year. However, LHBs have always been his kryptonite; they're sporting an .773 OPS against Dotel. Leyland will elevate Dotel as his primary firearm, using him in high-leverage situations where the majority of batters he'll face are right-handed. He'd match up particularly well against the St. Louis Cardinals, given their right-handed heavy lineup.
- Joaquin Benoit has been the Tigers setup man for the 2012 season. However, he's been prone to the long-ball, serving up HRs on 18% of the fly balls he allows. Further, he's not been hot this post-season, with a 4.68 ERA thus far. There's no room to allow HRs in the playoff's late innings, so I don't see a major place for Benoit the remainder of the playoffs. He can't be relied upon in close games, and with Valverde relegated to low leverage situations, Benoit doesn't have a clear place in this bullpen.
- Phil Coke is the mirror image of Dotel. He struggles against RHB (opposing RHB have 1.050 OPS in 2012), while he's useful against LHB (opposing .686 OPS in 2012). He strikes out nearly a batter an inning. I expect Coke will continue to be used as the first LHP out of the bullpen, available where there's a series of touch LHB. He could pick up the occasional save where it requires wading through the middle of the Yankee lineup in the 9th inning.
- Al Alberquerque is the youngest member of the bullpen corps. He's a live arm and tonne of potential; in his 13 innings in 2012, he struck out 12 per nine innings. He's got a deadly fastball/slider combination - and not a lot of big-league experience. Leyland might elevate Albequerque to Dotel's former role - first RHP from the bullpen in late innings to face a crucial series of RHBs. But he'll have a quick hook with him as his lack fo experience may come through in the magnified postseason.
3. Learn harder on the Tigers' starting pitching staff. The Tigers are built around a set of four power right-handed arms (Justin Velander, Doug Fister, Anibel Sanchez, Matt Scherzer). These pitchers have not been overly taxed in the playoffs and offer the best fit against the Yankee lineup (and potentially, the St. Louis Cardinals). Unless the day’s starting pitcher is struggling, Leyland should ride his starters harder, looking for a seventh inning before turning any lead over to his bullpen. He has enough options to mix and match his way through a decimated Yankee lineup, matching his relievers up with the batters at hand.