Two Games In: Lessons from the AL Playoffs

We’ve seen two games played in each of the American League Divisional Series (ALDS). The Baltimore Orioles have split their two home games and now head to New York for a best of three against the Yankees. The Athletics head home to Oakland, down two games to none against the Detroit Tigers. They’ll need to win three games at home to advance to the ALCS.

We’ll reflect back on the two games in each of these series, looking for some lessons learned that can portend to predictions for the remainder of the ALDS.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees

1. Despite inferior talent, Baltimore does not have the look of an overmatched team. Baltimore Manager Buck Showalter has adeptly managed the Orioles through 2012, assembling a lineup that’s used the best talents of lesser players (Lew Ford, Nate McLouth), integrating upstarts (Manny Machado) alongside a core of power hitters.  He’s been even better with his bullpen management: Baltimore is 76 – 0 this season when leading games after seven innings.  He’s managed his bullpen arms, using Darren O’Day, Pedro Stroop, Jim Johnson and Brian Matusz to their ultimate effect to neutralize batters’ right-left platoon splits.  Showalter seems quite willing to bring in his relief pitchers early, up against the Yankees big power bats to exploit a particular platoon split or increase the chances of a double-play ball where the Yankees have a runner in scoring position.

The Yankees’ offense cannot seem to deliver the necessary clutch hits against Baltimore despite a superior cast of players.  While some see this as a strike against the Yankees, I see this as the result of Baltimore’s adept use of their pitchers.  This trend will continue through games three, four and five.  Expect these games will be close affairs.

2. Robinson Cano is in top form amidst an ensemble of banged up, aged hitters. There’s little doubt the Yankees are not entirely healthy right now; Mark Texiera has battled injured quadriceps through August and September, while Alex Rodriguez had missed six weeks with a broken hand and is 1-9 with five strikeouts in two ALDS games. Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson look lost through the first two games. Meanwhile, Cano is emerging as the Yankees’ only feared hitter.  He has three RBIs in two games, and was intentionally walked in Game Two depite representing the go-ahead run. 

Cano held a .347 BA through the month of September and is as hot in the playoffs. Baltimore has no interest in pitching to him, so the question will be whether other Yankee hitters can get on base around Cano.

Prediction: Buck Showalter’s adept lineup and bullpen management will keep this a highly entertaining series until the very end. If the Orioles can win game three against Yankees' Hiroki Kuroda (struggled through September with a 4.71 ERA) they’ll be well positioned win one more against Phil Hughes (Game Four) or CC Sabathia (Game Five). Unless the Yankees’ offense can step up to support Cano, I don’t see them advancing to the ALCS.

Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics

1. Oakland does not have the offensive profile to take advantage of Detroit’s weaknesses. Regular season facts about Oakland’s offense and Detroit’s pitching and defense:

- Oakland hitters strike out 22% of all ABs, third this season behind the Pirates and Astros;
- Oakland puts the ball into play less than any other team, with a 39$ ground ball % and 21 % line drive percentage;
- Detroit pitchers average 8.29 K/9, third amongst teams this season; and
- Detroit has the second worst defense in baseball, with a UZR/150 rating of -5.8, only behind the Indians.

Simply put, Oakland’s offense does not have the profile to take advantage of Detroit’s porous defense and strikeout-dependent pitchers.  Oakland's hitters strike out too often to take advantage of the Tigers’ poor defensive range. They’ll be facing Detroit pitchers (Anibal Sanchez, Matt Scherzer and Justin Verlander) that heavily rely on strike out. Not a good combination for the Athletics - in a park that will heavily favour pitchers.

Prediction: Detroit handily wins this series. They’ll have the chance win tonight and if they do, they can rest and set their rotation for an ALCS matchup against the surprising Orioles.