The race for the American League pennant looks to be a tight one this year, as amazingly, the top six teams in the league are only separated by two and a half games as we approach the halfway mark for the season. Not only are those top six teams playing well, but a dark horse has emerged in the Toronto Blue Jays, who just recently ended their 11-game winning streak, bringing their playoff hopes back to life. So which one of these teams have the best shot at winning the American League Championship this fall?
If you asked me which team has the most dangerous lineup in the American League, and which team has the pitching rotation I would least like to face in the playoffs, those would both be the same team, which is the same team that won the American League Championship last year, the Detroit Tigers. Detroit leads baseball in batting average (.283), and on-base percentage (.351), and their +76 run differential trails only the Boston Red Sox (+78) in the American League. The Tigers lineup is yet again led by Miguel Cabrera, who somehow might be doing even better in the season after his triple-crown campaign, as he is on pace to hit .368, and bring in over 150 RBIs, and hit over 40 homeruns. Prince Fielder is having another great season, and the Tigers are also getting some surprising offense out of Torii Hunter and Jhonny Peralta.
Despite the average start of Justin Verlander, the rest of the Tigers rotation is holding up very well. Max Scherzer still has an undefeated record of 11-0, and Anibal Sanchez has some great numbers so far with a 2.76 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP. If Verlander gets back to anywhere close to his old form, I have a hard time seeing any team beating that rotation in a five or seven game series. The only obvious weakness of the Tigers is the back end of their bullpen. Jose Valverde was removed from the closer role, and designated for assignment, after a very ineffective half of a season. Joaquin Benoit looks like the Tigers’ choice to take over as the closer for now, as he and Drew Smyly seem to be the only successful pitchers in the bullpen for now. The bullpen will definitely be an area the Tigers will look to improve within the next few weeks as the trade deadline approaches.
The biggest reason the Tigers may have to be the front-runners in the American League is their lack of competition in their division. The Indians are starting to trail off in the AL Central, and both the AL East and AL West have multiple teams at the top of the standings who could go on a run and take the division. There are only four playoff spots available for the five teams in the AL East, and the Rangers and Athletics in the AL West. Like the Tigers and their bullpen issues, each of the other contenders in the American League have parts of the team they could improve, but the Tigers seem to have the most fixable issue, by adding a reliever at the trade deadline. This opinion could change week-to-week with half of the season remaining, but for now I’ll take the Tigers to repeat as American League Champions.