Yoenis Cespedes defected from Cuba in the Summer of 2011 in order to become a Major League Baseball free agent. It’s not known by many baseball fans just how good Cespedes was in his former league though, the Cuban National Series. Cespedes was also a member of the Cuban National Team. It is unfair to put too much stock into his Cuban National Series stats, since it is too difficult to compare the difference in strength of opponents. Still, I’ll list his stats here so you are all aware.
Cespedes hit .313 in the 2004-05 season. In the 2005-06 season, he hit .351 with 23 Home Runs and 78 Runs Batted In. In 2006-07, Cespedes hit .303 with 17 Home Runs and 79 Runs. In the 2007-08 season in the Cuban National Series, Cespedes hit .284, but was among the league leaders in Runs Batted In and Home Runs (26). Cespedes also started in center for Cuba in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. In 2008-09, he hit .323 and 24 Home Runs. He hit .345 in 2009-2010 with 22 more Home Runs (keep in mind all of these stats were during 90-game seasons). Finally, in 2010-11, Cespedes hit 30 Home Runs to the tune of a .333 Batting Average.
Cespedes was signed by the Oakland Athletics on March 3rd, 2012 and his first season as a Major-League ballplayer was one of the better rookie campaigns in recent history. Cespedes is considered a five-tool player who can hit pretty much do it all on the baseball field. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus even went as far to say that Cespedes is, “arguably the best all-around player to come out of Cuba in a generation.” Cespedes posted a .292 Batting Average while hitting 23 Home Runs in 129 Games.
Cespedes finished second in the Rookie of the Year award voting, behind phenom Mike Trout. That’s no knock on Cespedes, of course, because Trout even earned first-place votes for the Most Valuable Player award.
Cespedes and the Athletics shocked the baseball world last season by winning the AL West and during that time Cespedes proved himself as a solid fantasy baseball option. His ability to steal bases, hit homers and hit for a high average are coveted by many owners. The Athletics and Cespedes, however, are off to a slower start this season. Let’s take a closer look at Cespedes’ stats from last season and this season so far and see if we can predict his fantasy value moving forward.
Since Cespedes is a younger player with a limited data set of Major-League level statistics, this makes it a little more difficult to make any assumptions based on his numbers. However, here is a chart that shows his percentage-rates, runs created and his batting average on balls in play.
| Y Cespedes | RC | RC/162 | BB% | K% | HR % | Contact % | BABIP | Gs |
| 2012 | 84.3 | 105.8 | 8% | 18.9% | 4.3% | 73.2% | .369 | 129 |
| 2013 | 11.7 | 70.2 | 7.6% | 25.4% | 5.9% | 67% | .284 | 27 |
As you can see, Cespedes is striking out about 6.5% more often than he was last season. This represents a very large change. In my experience of dealing with most Major-League players and their statistics, consistency is something that seems to be pretty common from year to year. In Cespedes’ case, this huge change is a big cause for concern. There could be a couple different reasons for this. The first is that pitchers have adjusted to Cespedes and now are better at facing him. It is common for players to face a ‘sophomore slump’, and this could be Cespedes’ version of that. The reason for Cespedes’ struggles could also come down to the law of averages. Cespedes posted an above average BABIP last season (.369) and this season he is well below the season average (.284). Still, Cespedes is not putting the ball in play as much as he was last season and BABIP isn’t going to help him when he is striking out in over one-out-of-four Plate Appearances.
I feel like Cespedes is dealing with pitchers that have a more advanced scouting report on him and that he will likely improve his putrid numbers as he re-adjusts his approach at the plate. Let’s pull up some splits from the last few weeks and see if he his already starting to make the adjustment.
| Splits | PA | AVG | BB% | K% | HR% | CONTACT% | BABIP |
| 2013 | 118 | .202 | 7.6% | 25.4% | 5.9% | 67% | .284 | |
| Last 7 days | 22 | .091 | 0% | 22.7% | 4.6% | 77.3% | .118 | |
| Last 14 days | 47 | .159 | 4.3% | 21.3% | 6.4% | 74.5% | .206 | |
| Last 28 days | 71 | .203 | 4.2% | 23.9% | 5.6% | 71.8% | .277 | |
This chart actually seems to show a few different things. First off, that Cespedes has been awful in the last seven days, drawing zero walks in 22 plate appearances. One positive trend though is that his Strikeout percentage is starting to fall and his Contact percentage is rising back to the levels he posted as a rookie last year. The bad news is his horrible BABIP. Cespedes has been hitting the ball, but it just isn’t finding holes right now and I think that can mostly be attributed to luck. Some may point to his hand injury, but Cespedes has proven he still has good power, posting a very solid home run percentage.
It will be interesting to come back one month from now and to look at Cespedes’ numbers again. If I was a fantasy owner who had Cespedes, I’d have a little bit of a longer leash with him to see if he can come out of his slump. I really think a lot of bad luck has played into his poor numbers and Cespedes should be primed to come out of it and still put up very good numbers. However, since Cespedes is only in his second full season as a player in the bigs, it is more difficult to predict. Veterans who have been around longer seem to find consistency within a certain range and since Cespedes has not established that yet, only time will tell if he can re-adjust to Major-League pitching.