Could this be the second-straight year in which the NBA playoffs experience a positive identity crisis?
Will the viewing public again witness a few compelling upsets over the first two rounds as it had done last season?
Unlike the NHL, lower seeds in the National Basketball Association rarely surprise superior teams with upset performances in the postseason. Whereas an eight seed can beat a one—and eventually win the Stanley Cup—in pro hockey, truly inferior squads seldom take down Goliaths on the hardwood.
Okay, aside from the “We Believe” Golden State Warriors’ six-game miracle over the top-seeded Dallas Mavericks in 2006-2007.
In any case, last season was indeed the exception to historical NBA norms.
The Chicago Bulls pulled off a relative upset with their series win over the No. 4 Brooklyn Nets, while Golden State took out the third-seeded Denver Nuggets in the first round. The Indiana Pacers then edged the New York Knicks in six games in the semifinals.
Of course, the greatest upset by far occurred when the Memphis Grizzlies, after dropping Game 1, won four-straight against the No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Yet, ultimately, the Finals brought chalk back to the forefront. The 66-win Miami Heat successfully defended their title in an all-time seven-game series over the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs.
Should we expect more of the same in 2013-2014?
Even though this upcoming postseason won’t exactly satisfy the Cinderella-inclined, not all top-four teams from each conference will advance past Round 1. Surprising outcomes will prevail in some fashion—just not quite the glass slipper variety.
Let’s now identify the two lower seeds that will dish out upset specials in the first round of this year’s NBA playoffs.
No. 6 Brooklyn Nets (44-38) over No. 3 Toronto Raptors (48-34)
How about we first diagram Toronto’s overwhelming statistical superiority.
On offense, the Raptors score more points per game (101.4) and per 100 possessions (108.9) than Brooklyn (98.7, 106.9). Their backcourt of floor general Kyle Lowry (17.9) and shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (22.8) average 40.7 per contest.
The Nets’ Deron Williams (14.3) and Joe Johnson (15.8) combine for just over 30 points.
Defensively, the Raptors also allow fewer points per game (98.1) and per 100 possessions (105.4) than their Eastern foe (99.8, 107.6). Lowry is an exceptional defender who leads a starting five that owns 14.5 defensive win shares.
The Nets, in comparison, are a formidable enough group, but produced only 8.5 in that win-share department. There’s only so much Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett can do at a combined 73 years of age.
And in their season series, despite a 2-2 split, Toronto outscored (99.3) and out-rebounded (40.8) its Brooklyn counterpart (96.5, 36.0). That included a 96-80 demolition derby by DeRozan and Co. on Jan. 11.
So, why will the Nets—the preseason-favorites-turned-underdog—pull off this considerable upset?
Because they’re slow, savvy and designed specifically for playoff-style basketball.
On top of their 20th ranking in points scored per game, the Nets average the sixth-fewest possessions (91.4) in the Association. They thrive on methodical, half-court sets and beating opponents at the foul line.
But above all else, the championship prowess of Pierce and Garnett will prove the difference over a Raptors squad with none to speak of.
Former champion himself Jason Kidd will continue tapping into his own playoff experience—this time as a rising head coach in the 2014 calendar year (see: 34-16 record). He’ll ultimately pull more right strings than wrong and will get the better of Dwane Casey.
The Nets grind this one out in six.
Looking ahead, the fact—and yes, this is an observable, deducible fact—that Brooklyn purposefully dropped to the No. 6 seed speaks volumes to Kidd’s veteran know-how. He understood full well his team’s next opponent on the playoff docket.
The Miami Heat.
And lest we forget, the Nets swept the season series with the defending champs.
Avoiding the Tom Thibodeau-coached Bulls makes sense. But so does setting up a showdown with a vulnerable Heat squad in Round 2.
How else do you explain a 29-point loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 82 of the regular season?
Don’t give us the “rest” argument—it won’t hold.
No. 6 Golden State Warriors (51-31) over No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers (57-25)
This matchup was already a possible upset special when it first surfaced three weeks ago.
Now that the underdog is without its best defender and floor-anchoring center, the potential for a lower-seed surprise just ratcheted up to a new level.
Warriors’ big man Andrew Bogut suffered a fractured rib against the Portland Trail Blazers on April 13. He will sadly miss most, if not the entirety of the postseason.
Bogut rated top-15 in defensive win shares (4.1), sixth in blocks per game (1.8) and third in defensive rebound percentage. He was the primary reason why Golden State ranked fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions (102.6)
Opponents simply couldn’t score in the paint with Bogut on the floor.
It can only appear now that the Clippers frontline of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will dominate down low. Defending Griffin’s top-six scoring average (24.1 PPG) and Jordan’s unrivaled field goal percentage of 67.6 will indeed materialize as a monumental task.
The same goes for preeminent floor general Chris Paul. The tough-as-nails bulldog will drive inside and take it to the rim like there’s no tomorrow. Well, in addition to facilitating to those aforementioned teammates with his NBA-best assist metric (10.7 APG).
The Clippers’ top rankings in points scored per game (107.9) and per 100 possessions (112.1) surely derive from Paul’s comprehensive talents.
And the Warriors are supposed to combat this how?
With the most explosive Big 3 in the Association—that being Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and the forever-underappreciated power forward David Lee.
This trio averages a stellar 60.6 points per contest. Lee shoots over 52 percent from the field, while the best-shooting backcourt knocks down an incredible 42 percent from distance.
All three also do some of their best work against the Clippers.
They combined for an average of 62.6 points in four games this season. Lee shot 58.5 percent, Thompson drained 43 percent of his threes and Curry went for 22.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 9.5 APG, not to mention a staggering 58.6 percent from downtown.
Yet, at the end of the day, it all comes down to Curry facilitating and his supporting cast knocking down shots.
Title-winning head coach Doc Rivers will send double teams to Curry on nearly every possession. He must utilize every bit of his remarkable floor vision and top-six assists average (8.5) to involve his teammates.
Thompson must move fluidly without the ball and perform transcendently from beyond the arc. Lee must capitalize on his ambidextrous prowess against Jordan inside, while also hitting some mid-range shots versus Griffin.
We realize there’s a lot of “must-like” imperatives in the preceding analysis. But then again, that’s what surprises naturally entail.
Draymond Green—the do-all-the-small-things X-factor—will guard nearly all five positions and will serve as the defensive catalyst.
The Warriors win in a bloody, high-scoring, technical-foul-laden seven games.
Oh, do these teams just hate each other.
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