The race for NBA Rookie of the Year should be an interesting one.  In recent years the race for ROY has been over and decided by mid-season. Last year Kyrie Irving won in a land slid, this coming after Blake Griffin won the year before in even more spectacular fashion. Derrick Rose won four years ago in an equally impressive manner and Kevin Durant the year before him also took home the honors in runaway fashion.

As history shows us, the ROY award is not typically a hotly contested race as the eventual winner makes it obvious from day one that he is the cream of the crop. This season might be a different story as the lottery draft was deeper than in previous years.

I’m actually going to go against the grain on my selection for ROY. I think it is all too easy and comfortable to sit back and throw out the names of the top five draft picks and say that it will come down to Anthony Davis or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. I don’t even have MKG in my top five, nor do I have Harrison Barnes ranked. This isn’t to say they won’t have solid rookie campaigns or be bona fide NBA players; but I’m looking for the best.

Here are my top candidates for the 2012-13 NBA Rookie of the Year:

5- Jonas Valanciunas – Toronto Raptors
The fifth overall selection from the 2011 NBA Draft makes his debut this season after playing last year overseas. Valanciunas is not your proto-typical European import player as he is not a finesse player. The strengths of Jonas’ game involve pick and rolls to the basket, crashing the glass for rebounds and bringing a physical defensive presence. Many projections put Valanciunas’ talent right behind that of Anthony Davis and had Valanciunas waited till last year to declare for the draft; speculation was that he would have followed Davis in the number two spot.

Injuries have already slowed Jonas this season so hopefully he regains some strength and shakes off the rust quickly. There is real potential here for a double-double type stat line plus a couple blocks per game. Offensively the game is just not quiet polished enough and that will hurt him this season as they guys ahead of him in the rankings can flat out score.

4- Bradley Beal - Washington Wizards
The third overall pick in the draft, Bradley Beal requested that the Washington Wizards take him with their pick. Well he got his wish and he is now thrust into the spotlight as John Wall is out with an injury. The expectations for Beal are high, he impressed in his collegiate career and in NBA Summer League. He would be better served to have John Wall in the lineup as Beal is a better scorer off the catch rather than off the dribble. Beal will get a huge opportunity with Wall out to assert himself in the offense. If Beal can keep his sweet shooting stroke going he will experience success. The success might not be immediate but it will come.

3- Thomas Robinson – Sacramento Kings
I really thought that Robinson slipped down the draft board and fell right into the Sacramento Kings laps at number five. There is no question that Robinson is a very talented player who uses his size and strength to dominate low post players and be a tenacious rebounder. Unfortunately for Robinson, the Kings already have a player who fits that mold in DeMarcus Cousins. In an ideal situation, Robinson would start alongside Cousins to form the strength and size in the frontcourt. To make this successful, Robinson is going to be forced out onto the perimeter and away from his natural strengths.

Robinson’s ball handling skills and tenacity for getting to the rim should help to overcome the relatively poor shooting. Robinson just might be the best rookie of the bunch; however, he isn’t in the best situation to experience early success. He will have a solid rookie season and likely come third in the ROY voting.

2- Anthony Davis – New Orleans Hornets
History is on Anthony Davis’ side as there is a trend of first overall picks being selected as rookie of the year winners. Davis is a uniquely gifted player who has the size of a center and the ball handling skills of a guard, a deft touch from the outside and a ferocious attack of the rim. Davis can also play defense, run the floor and rebound the ball. There is no reason why Davis can’t average over 10 ppg and 10 rpg while getting 2 bpg.

I think that the drawbacks for Davis this season will be an unpolished offensive game, his overall physical strength against the leagues power forwards and that the current Hornets roster is reliant on guard play and outside shooting. Davis is ultimately too talented not to be a success; I just don’t think he will be the best rookie this season.

1- Damian Lillard – Portland Trailblazers
This kid is good, very good. Drafted out of relative obscurity known as Weber State where he played with nobody you or I have, or ever will, hear about again; Lillard still posted ridiculous numbers. He parlayed that confidence into co-MVP honours at the NBA Summer League where he lead the Blazers squad. This preseason saw Lillard post averages of 16.2 ppg, 5.8 apg and 2.5 rpg while shooting .458 from the field and .950 from the free throw line all while playing over 31 minutes a night. Now I don’t put much stock in preseason basketball and I value NBA Summer League even less; but I’m inclined to see a trend forming here and that is that Damian Lillard can flat out ball.

I don’t see any foreseeable reasons why Lillard won’t be the Portland Trailblazers starting point guard throughout the season. There will be plenty of opportunities afforded Lillard as they all know this guy could be the future of the franchise. I’m picking Lillard as my projected ROY winner due to the fact that he will have the ball in his hands every single game and will be given the flexibility in the offense to make good things happen. Good things will happen, averages of 14 ppg and 6 apg are very attainable and voters will recognize that a rookie point guard succeeding in the NBA from day one is a rarity. Lillard’s position is much more demanding than Anthony Davis’ and that is what will separate the two come season end.