The Miami Heat should feel warm and fuzzy right about now if their Dom Perignon-aided New Years’ resolution equated to playing pedestrian-level basketball.
But if adhering to three-peat quality play was the more operative ideal, trouble could be a brewing in South Beach.
And more than just a hypothetical champagne headache.
Miami finished 2013 with an appropriate bang. It ended the year on a 10-2 run and rocked a stellar 24-7 record, sitting just one game back in the win column behind the Indiana Pacers.
Then 2014 happened.
The two-time defending NBA champs have gone a mediocre 7-5 in January.
That win-loss mark—average though as it may seem—turns downright cellar-worthy when examining the details.
Healthy minded viewers beware—poor defense is not conducive to overall wellness.
Erik Spoelstra’s club first allowed a LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh-era-worst 123 points at home to the Golden State Warriors on Jan. 2. It easily could have been 153.
LeBron and Co. then wasted three straight wins by dropping three consecutive to losing squads in a week’s span.
The hapless New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets had been a combined 26-43. The Washington Wizards were a bit more respectable, but still boasted a sub-.500 mark (17-19).
Miami allowed over 100 points each game and averaged a negative-12.0 differential.
Is that bad? Well, it’s not good.
After eking one out in overtime against the non playoff-qualifying Charlotte Bobcats (17-24), the Heat reached another statistical low.
They surrendered a season-high 71 first-half points to the Atlanta Hawks. Giving up 21 fewer in the second did not save them from an ugly 121-114 defeat.
Remember, Atlanta was still without Al Horford—it’s leading scorer (18.6 PPG), rebounder (8.4 RPG) and block specialist (1.5 BPG).
“It’s just not good basketball right now,” said James of the team’s shortcomings on defense.
Could’ve fooled us.
Here is how Miami’s defense stacks up against the rest of the league in January.
- No. 8 in OPP TO (15.5) vs. No. 1 on the season (17.7)
- No. 14 in PPG allowed (101.0) vs. No. 8 on the season (98.5)
- No. 14 in SPG (7.7) vs. No. 2 on the season (9.2)
- No. 22 in APG allowed (23.6) vs. No. 12 on the season (21.2)
- No. 28 in FG% allowed (47.7) vs. No. 20 on the season (45.9)
- No. 28 in BPG (3.5) vs. No. 20 on the season (4.5)
- No. 30 in RPG (28.6) vs. No. 30 on the season (29.5)
Aside from an improvement in three-point percentage allowed, the Heat have faltered in nearly every defensive category. Considering that not even the Pacers can match them defensively when the Heat employ maximum effort compounds this situation even further.
Miami’s team-wide offense has at least maintained a top-half ranking with 102.6 PPG (No. 13). That isn’t too much of a drastic decline from 104.0 on the season (No. 7).
However, various individuals on this South Beach-based contingent cannot say the same.
Bosh’s FG percentage has fallen from 52.8 to 51.1, while D-Wade’s FG rate, FT percentage, APG, SPG and PPG are all down.
Every statistical metric but PPG and FT percentage are on a downward slide as well for LeBron. The most glaring is his 25.6 three-point rate compared to 37.2 overall.
Ray Allen, for his part, must really be feeling the effects of 1,265 games and 45,419 NBA minutes on his 38-year-old body. His 6.6 PPG, 29.3 FG percentage and 21.4 percent from three are essentially the lowest January totals anyone can ever remember from Mr. Shuttlesworth.
The legendary sharpshooter has otherwise compiled an 18.8 PPG, 44.9 FG rate and 41.0 percent from distance in this month for his career.
The Big 4—as it were—have certainly hit a major cold streak at the start of 2014.
Yet, through all of these depression-inducing statistics (we’re sorry for the overload), Miami’s season hinges on one man.
Dwyane Tyrone Wade.
Wade’s increasingly degenerative knees have engendered equally significant concern in recent weeks.
Four of Wade’s 12 missed games have occurred in January. The Heat are 2-2 without him this month and 6-6 on the season. They were 11-2 last year.
A team that was elite just one season ago without their star shooting guard is now a combustible afterthought in 2013-2014 with Wade on the sidelines.
As much as LeBron is the all-everything force in Miami, Wade is the heart and soul that holds this squad together. He completes the Big 3—and team as a whole—both on and off the hardwood.
Ultimately, the Miami Heat will not beat the Indiana Pacers in the presumptive conference finals sans Wade. They will not realize their three-peat-creating legend without him.
So, are the Heat in trouble right now at 31-12 and second place in the East?
Not at all. An 82-game campaign is a totally grueling marathon—let them conserve their energy for the postseason. Even if that means going down to the wire over the past two contests against the 28-loss Boston Celtics and a Los Angeles Lakers club sitting two spots away from last place in the West.
But will they be in hot water come May playoff action when matched up against the Pacers—without Flash?
In more ways than Heat fans would ever want to consider.
The NBA world hopes such an unfortunate development never materializes.
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