The Golden State Warriors were a team of destiny last season. They were the most devastating team in the league who could unleash a nuclear attack on any night. Various NBA records were broken by the Dubs, Stephen Curry was named MVP, Bob Myers won Executive of the Year, and Andre Iguodala earned Finals MVP. Oracle Arena houses quite a few trophies now, but will there be more to come this season?
The Dubs are undoubtedly title contenders once again this year, but there are glaring reasons why their chances are much slimmer to win an NBA championship compared to last season. Let’s dig in.
Sheer Chance
Only two teams have won consecutive championships in the last 15 years, the Los Angeles Lakers (twice) and the Miami Heat. Even the most consistent team of our generation, the San Antonio Spurs, haven't repeat. Winning a title in consecutive seasons takes a bit of luck and a team comprised of absolute legends. Some of the best players ever were on these repeat teams, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, and Dwyane Wade. Repeats are completed on the backs of generational players, and the Dubs have one in Stephen Curry. But is the world ready to mention Klay Thompson in the same breath as the other second options from those repeat teams? Definitely not.
Luckily for the Dubs, they bring back almost everyone from last season—meaning the team remains incredibly balanced. The NBA is clearly leaning towards a new era of “small ball” which the Dubs are pioneering. However, other teams will become wise to their act and be better prepared. I am not comfortable putting my money on the Dubs repeat chances due to simple chance alone.
The Wild Wild West
“In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” I’d like to amend Benjamin Franklin’s sentiments to include another certainty: The NBA’s Western Conference will be absurd.
Now, I would like you to play a quick game. Please name the top 25 players in the NBA. You may do this out loud, or in your head, but I suggest in your head to avoid any suspicion that you’ve lost your mind. Now, I’d like you to review your list and count how many players have a home in the Western Conference.
Yes, the answer should be close to 20. Of course, you should be holding one spot for LeBron James and there are a few argumentative spots for fringe players like Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Paul George, Kevin Love, Jimmy Butler or Kyrie Irving but you get the picture. When a large portion of the best players in the NBA are stacked between a few title contenders in one conference, can any team truly be the favorite out west? The Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets are home to many of the best players in the entire NBA.
This was true before all of these teams became more dynamic in the offseason due to transactions (excuse me while I check Twitter to make sure the Spurs or Clippers didn’t grab another star player) and overall health recovery.
Eastern Conference Revivals
I’d like to revisit the previous exercise, notice anything about the best Eastern Conference players? Most of them were out for large portions for the season—or even more importantly—the NBA Finals. For players like George and Melo, their teams are in no contention for the NBA title. However, as a whole, their presence makes the NBA’s Eastern Conference more formidable to the obvious favorites, the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Over the course of this season, the quality of the Eastern Conference should be much higher than this past season, which results in a more battle-tested Cavs. That point is nice and all, but it is nothing compared to the simple fact that having Love and Irving sidelined for the NBA Finals put the Cavs in an inescapable hole. The Dubs received a significant stroke of luck last year thanks to injuries against Love and Irving. That shouldn’t happen again this season.
Will the real MVP please stand up?
Speaking of revivals, Kevin Durant returns this season. Arguably the best player in the NBA, the former MVP obviously throws a colossal kink in the Dubs title hopes. Last season, the Dubs faced off against the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round of the playoffs. Now, imagine if Durant had made a return towards the end of the season and helped Russell Westbrook push the Thunder into the playoffs. That first round matchup would’ve been one of the fiercest ever, and Stephen Curry would’ve gone into overdrive immediately. Instead, he got to burn Norris Cole and the Pelicans.
The return of Durant automatically lowers the Dubs repeat chances because he is one of the rare NBA players who can take over an entire season, and control outcomes nearly by himself. His partner in crime, Westbrook, can almost do the same thing. That equals bad news for the Warriors come playoff time.
Fortunate Journey
As mentioned, the Dubs playoff journey started off easy, and a few fortunate breaks occurred along the way to land them their first title in four decades. In the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, the Pelicans were run over by the Warriors. Starting point guard Jrue Holiday was marred with an injury, leaving the Pelicans shorthanded at their guard position. Anthony Davis, who is nothing short of basketball royalty already, was phenomenal but still in his growing stages.
Next, the Dubs faced off against the Memphis Grizzlies. Mike Conley missed part of the series due to facial injuries. The masked man did return and contribute, but again there is no way Conley wasn’t affected by playing in a mask.
Then, the Western Conference Finals occurred without defensive specialist Patrick Beverley, leaving Curry to do his damage against Pablo Prigioni and Jason Terry.
Last, but not least, the Cavaliers were without two of their starting players who also just happen to be All-Star caliber players. This seems like a fortuitous path towards a title, it is unlikely injury plagued opponents occur again to that extent.
Most importantly, the Dubs were in favorable health throughout the entire playoffs. Even after a terrifying fall during the Western Conference Finals, Curry missed little time on the court. Looking back on all of the injuries, I find it difficult to believe that the Dubs would’ve made it out the West with the same relative ease if all of those players were on the floor.
The Odds are Stacked
The Golden State Warriors are a fantastic, well-balanced, and gifted team. Last season, everything came together for them, while their opponents’ fell apart in many ways. Las Vegas doesn’t necessarily believe the Warriors are favorites to repeat, and neither do I.