Up and down the roller coaster we go! When we last checked in on the Warriors vs. Grizzlies second round matchup, the series was tied at one game apiece. Since then, the momentum has shifted back and forth, and now the Warriors have a 3-2 lead heading back to Memphis for a critical game six showdown. After game 2, the Grizzlies took game 3 to gain the upper hand. In game 4, however, the Splash Bros woke up and took over to tie the series. The Warriors then drubbed a Tony Allen-less Grizzlies in game five to take us to where we are now. Let’s take a look at what changed and what each team needs to do to win this series.

Bombs Away

A crucial component of this series was the disparity in three-point shooting between each team. The Warriors live and die behind the arc, while the Grizzlies take a much more traditional approach. In the first few games, Golden State was cold, and neither Stephen Curry nor Klay Thompson could get going. However, in game four Curry turned into the league MVP again and dropped 33 points. He was able to keep his hot shooting alive in game five as well, hitting six threes en route to a blowout win. Thompson got himself going again in game five as well, scoring 21 points and showing that he could get used to life without Tony Allen tailing him all game.

On the other end, the Grizzlies’ offense dried up in games four and five. This is both a testament to the Warriors’ defense, and a condemnation of the lack of offensive versatility Memphis truly has. In games four and five, Memphis combined to go 8 for 33 from three, which simply isn’t going to keep them in games with the high-flying Warriors offense. They need more offense from their guards and their bench, especially from beyond the arc. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph can only take this team so far.

Dub-fense

While the Warriors’ offense was celebrated all season, their defense took leaps and bounds from last season to propel them to the top of the conference. Golden State turns turnovers into points, and have done an exceptional job doing that in their wins this series. In their three victories, they’ve turned an average of 16 turnovers into 23 fast break points. When this team gets out and runs, they attack in a way that is virtually impossible not only to stop, but to replicate in practice. They can space to the wings or attack the basket, and having some of the best shooters in the NBA running the show leads to a lot of good things.

The other important component of their defensive attack is stopping Memphis in the paint. This is a monumental task, as the Grizzlies are armed with two of the best post players in Gasol and Randolph. While Memphis has done a good job of using the paint to their advantage, game five showed a blueprint in beating them. The Grizzlies scored 30 points in the paint, a series low, but Marc Gasol had his worst game of the series, and him and Randolph both looked uncomfortable all night. If the Grizzlies want to stay alive in game six, they have to re-establish their presence inside and make the game physical once again.

The Injury Bug

Memphis has been hit hard with injuries in the playoffs, and it is to their credit that the injured players have come back so quickly. However, the fact is that they’re playing at less than 100%, and against the league’s best team, that is an uphill climb in itself. Mike Conley is playing with half a face, and is still playing pretty well considering the circumstances. His backcourt mate Tony Allen, the “Grindfather” himself, missed game five with a hamstring injury that he’s been dealing with for weeks. He was able to play in the first round and the first four games, but it’s been clear that he is not fully healthy either.

If Allen misses game six, which he claims he won’t, then this series is over. He provides a game-changing presence for Memphis when he’s healthy, locking down defenders all game. Golden State adjusted to his lack of offense by basically ignoring him in game four, but his bread and butter is sticking to opposing guards like …bread…on…butter (sorry). Meanwhile, Conley is still one errant elbow away from getting knocked out of the game, so Memphis certainly has its hands full. Game six should be played at the Grizzlies’ pace, and we’ll see if they’re capable of the tall task of forcing a game seven.