Team Name
Dallas Mavericks
Division
Southwest Division
Last Season
49-33 (4th in division)
Roster additions / losses
Additions
Chandler Parsons signed a huge offer sheet to stay in Texas, but it was not with the Houston Rockets. Parsons joins Dallas and will start immediately, and should be a great fit with this offense. Coach Rick Carlisle certainly knows how to get the most out of his players, and Parsons is an off the ball slasher who does a lot of damage in the lane, but can knock down the three as well. A big score for Dallas, Parsons is an impact player immediately.
Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton both came over to Dallas in a blockbuster trade between the Mavericks and the New York Knicks. The deal reunites the center/power forward combination between Chandler and Dirk Nowitzki which brought a title to Dallas in 2011. Felton should be an intriguing addition as well, as his role will be unknown until training camp starts. He joins a crowded backcourt along with a couple of other signees, including…
Jameer Nelson, who joins the Mavericks after spending much of his career in Orlando. Nelson could slide into the starting point guard position, battling Felton and holdover Devin Harris. Nelson is an accomplished distributor, and should have no problem fitting in to this high-powered offense as the primary passer on a team with many scoring options.
Losses
Shawn Marion departs from his long tenure in Dallas to join the man he once locked down in the NBA Finals, LeBron James. Marion was a vital cog in Dallas’ defensive schemes last year, and his void will be hard to fill by anyone on the Mavs. A versatile small forward, Marion proved his defensive worth but also that he could score in a variety of ways as well. Dallas needs to find a defensive stopper to fill this gap.
Vince Carter left as well, joining the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies needed distance shooters this offseason, so the addition makes a lot of sense. Carter was a huge contributor last season, especially in the playoffs against the Spurs, but Dallas needed to clear the way for Parsons, so Carter heads north this season.
Samuel Dalembert, Jose Calderon, and Shane Larkin were the departures from Dallas as part of the trade with the Knicks. Dalembert was the defensive stalwart inside, but Chandler should take his place. Calderon is a bigger loss than many people realize, as he fit Carlisle’s schemes well and was a quality veteran shooter and distributor who rarely turned the ball over. Larkin was once deemed the point guard of the future, but clearly Dallas values winning now more than winning in a few years with Nowitzki approaching the twilight of his career.
Key Success Factors
1. Another stellar year from Dirk – The German may be getting older, but his production remains steady at an all-star level. For Dallas to be successful and make the playoffs once again, they will need yet another quality season. Last year Dirk averaged 21 points per game to go with 6 rebounds per game, while just missing the 50-40-90 club (50% fg%, 40% 3fg%, 90% ft%) shooting 49-39-89. If he keeps those stats up and continues to deliver in the clutch, Dallas will have a great shot in the loaded western conference.
2. Form team chemistry quickly – Though the season is 82 games, playoff hopes can be derailed as early as the first month or two of the year. Dallas needs to get all of its key pieces to gel quickly. Bringing in so many impact players is a difficult transition as everyone tries to learn their role. Not only are the new guys in a new situation, so are the holdovers who have to adapt to playing with new teammates. This team had a very high level of roster turnover, which could be a factor going forward. Parsons, Chandler, Felton, Nelson, and the other new entrants must learn their role fast, or this season can get out of hand in a hurry.
3. Rekindle the magic of 2011 – 2011 might have been Dirk’s best season as a pro. Championship aside, he was a stud all year. The biggest contribution that year, however, came from Tyson Chandler inside. When healthy, Chandler can be an absolute force in the paint both offensively and defensively, and Dallas will need him to be just that. That team also featured a veteran point guard who is now the head coach of the Bucks, and Jameer Nelson slides into that veteran leader role. Not all of the similarities are there, but it is clear this team has championship aspirations in mind, and the blueprint from 2011 is not a bad one to follow.
4. Share the ball – With so many scorers on the team, it may be difficult to find enough shots for everyone. That may not be an issue with the addition of Nelson and Felton, however. Those two guards do not take many shots and are happy to distribute to guys who do need the ball a lot, like Nowitzki, Monta Ellis and Parsons. The scorers get the credit in the box score, but the guys getting them the ball are just as important.
Fantasy Impact
Studs
Dirk Nowitzki – Must I really explain? This guy is a stud, hands down. He averages 21, 6 and 3 assists every season and does it all efficiently. He should not last further than the second round, if that. With new faces in the fold, he could easily finish at the top of the rankings when the season ends.
Monta Ellis – Earlier in his career, Ellis was labeled a “volume scorer,” as in, he needed to take a lot of shots to score a lot of points. However in his tenure in Dallas so far, he has shed that narrative and proven that his environment forced his hand in Golden State and Milwaukee. On bad teams, he had to take bad shots, but in Dallas the offense is much more fluent and his skills as an attacker shone the entire season. Expect another stellar season from Ellis, who has become an excellent Robin to Nowitzki’s Batman.
Chandler Parsons – The transition for Parsons may be tricky, but he is a proven scorer and shooter, as well as a sneakily high-quality defender. He averages over a steal per game, and is an all-around stat sheet stuffer. His career is on the rise as well, as his ppg average has risen from 9.5 to 15.5 to 16.5, all with noted ball-hog James Harden in the fold as well. With more opportunity, Parsons will thrive and be a fantasy stud this season.
Duds
Tyson Chandler – In terms of fantasy, Chandler is not the best guy to have on your team. His impact on the game comes more in the way of defensive rotations and altered shots, which do not show up in the box score. There is no reason to say that he cannot average 10 and 8 this season, but I just don’t see it happening. With his health a constant issue nowadays, your best bet is to avoid Chandler or at least wait until late in the draft to take him, if he is still around. His shooting percentage has declined as have his points, so if you plan on taking Chandler, don’t be surprised if he disappoints, especially if you take him too early.
Sleeper
Jameer Nelson – As I have mentioned, I think Nelson fits into this offense well. He is a floor leader and will emulate Rick Carlisle in his style of play. Nelson can distribute the ball and maintain a high assists average, as he somehow managed to average 7 apg the last two seasons in Orlando, who clearly lacks the firepower the Mavericks have. Those numbers should rise, the turnovers should fall, and he could easily still average double figure points this season. There is some risk if he finds himself in a more diminished role, but I’d be willing to take a gamble on Nelson this season.
2014 Season Predictions
MVP – Monta Ellis
LVP – Devin Harris
Finish – 7th seed in the West, First round exit
This might be the final go-round for Nowitzki, but then again we’ve been saying that since the Mavs won the NBA title in 2011. This team should improve on its finish from last year with fresh legs and more youthful athleticism. The west is still stacked, though, and I don’t think the Mavericks have enough depth to ultimately make a deep playoff run.