For a team in the western conference, being 15 games over .500 is an excellent accomplishment. Halfway through the season, that is where the Rockets sit. Due to the conference’s depth, however, that puts them towards the middle of the playoff pack. MVP candidate James Harden has led the way this year, leading the league in scoring and doing just about everything for Houston. Injuries have been a setback, but the team is finally almost fully healthy, and ready to push through the second half of the year. The question is, do they have what it takes to win the west?
A quick analysis of the Rockets shows that they should be in good shape, with the league’s leading scorer alongside a premier big man in Dwight Howard. However, this masks some serious problems that have plagued Houston this season. The first is that they simply rely too much on Harden. His usage rate is top five in the league, and he is their crunch time ball-handler and closer. When the offense bogs down, they rely on Harden to bail out the offense. This is part of the reason why Houston’s offense is only eighth in the league in terms of scoring, despite having the leading scorer.
The lack of balance also has to do with the rotating parts and lack of consistent production from a secondary player. Howard has had his ups and downs, and has been injured at times as well. Patrick Beverley has played well at times too, but his role is more defensive than offensive. Trevor Ariza has filled in for the departed Chandler Parsons admirably, but his shooting numbers are down this season and he has not consistently hit enough shots. Injuries affected the rotations, and it still seems like Houston is having trouble finding a rhythm at times. The introduction of Josh Smith and Corey Brewer were supposed to provide a bench spark, and at times they have. However, at other times they have looked overmatched. With players returning from injury, this situation will be an interesting one to monitor, to see who emerges as a regular rotation player.
Another issue is the lack of a vocal leader on the team. Harden prefers to lead by example on the court, but there is no veteran leader who can spark his teammates when things turn sour. For example, in Houston’s most recent loss against Golden State, the second quarter started to turn south. Houston had no one to step in and rally the team, and the game was basically over at halftime. Howard looked frustrated, the overall team body language was poor, and the Warriors fed off of that and ran away with the game. Howard has never been an alpha dog, and that won’t change now. If Houston wants to make it out of the west, someone will have to develop that sense, but it does not seem like anyone on this roster is capable of doing that.
The defense was an issue last season, but so far it really has improved. With a healthier Howard manning the paint, Beverley up to his ball hawking ways and Ariza providing an elite on-ball defender, the defense has been in the top half of the league; that despite having played the Warriors four times already. Even Harden has picked up his defensive effort. With more regular rotations and improved continuity, Houston’s defense could actually be one of their biggest strengths in the playoffs.
One of the more intriguing moves of this season was when Houston decided to pick up Josh Smith after the Detroit Pistons released him. The narrative has been the same about Smith for the last few seasons. Whatever team gets rid of Smith improves almost immediately. Atlanta proved that a few years ago, and Detroit has flourished with him gone. His role on Houston is still unproven, but he has played reasonably well. Him and Dwight Howard were friends growing up, which undoubtedly played a role in the signing. For Houston to be successful with Smith, they have to limit his minutes and put him in spots he thrives in; namely in a roaming role on defense and keeping him off the three-point line on offense.
What he cannot do is what happened against Golden State in their final matchup, where he became frustrated and decided to get thrown out of the game rather than continue to fight. This contributes to the poor body language issue and sets a poor example for the rest of the team. Everyone has to be all in for a team that wants to win the west. If Smith and the Rockets don’t buy into that, this team doesn’t have a chance to achieve their lofty goals.