Based on current seeding (as of Monday, March 17), predictions for the 2013-2014 NBA playoffs should materialize if a fairly predictable manner.
Only a select few upsets will emerge. And “few” might qualify as being overly generous.
The Cinderella days of the “We Believe” Golden State Warriors of 2005-2006 orchestrating universe-altering upsets are a phenomenon of a nostalgic past. No longer do eighth seeds take down the Association’s best—a la the 67-win Dallas Mavericks—in a largely parity-barren basketball landscape.
Worry not though, fans of the hardwood—compelling matchups will indeed pique your interest and inspire your collective imagination.
Just not in the first round.
In the East, the conference-leading Indiana Pacers will look for no uncertain vengeance against the defending-champion Miami Heat. Any foes standing in their way will surely have to bring transcendent efforts in every game of those impending series.
And in a super-star-laden West, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers, among others, will dazzle audiences with stellar all-around play. This conference might even feature a top-ranked club falling to an inferior opponent.
On that note, may the season of NBA predictions begin by blowing your mind with paradigm-shifting prognostications, forever changing the way you perceive the outside world.
Well, not really. But stay tuned anyway.
Western Conference
First Round
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs (50-16) versus No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies (39-27)
If recent history dictates anything, then this series is already a mere formality.
Unfortunately, history will indeed prove a reliable predictor—placing the Memphis Grizzlies in serious peril.
And by “in serious peril,” we mean this matchup will unfold as a quick four up, four down for the fundamentally perfect San Antonio Spurs.
The Western champs of 2012-2013 will execute a sweep of the entirely overmatched Grizzlies in much the same way they did in the conference championships last year.
The original Big Three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili—plus Kawhi Leonard—will overtake Memphis’ Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph. And Dave Joerger, the Grizzlies’ first-year head coach, will simply be in over his head against master-strategist Gregg Popovich.
San Antonio is top-five in both offensive (110.4 PTS) and defensive rating (102.8 PTS) per 100 possessions this season. Memphis, meanwhile, is dreadful offensively (105.9 PTS), and ranks only top-10 on defense (104.5 PTS), stingy as though it may be.
Our apologies folks, but this one’s a wash.
No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder (49-18) versus No. 7 Dallas Mavericks (41-27)
So, the Dallas Mavericks went into Oklahoma City’s territory Sunday and positively crushed the Thunder 109-86. That latest result evened the season series at one apiece.
Could that bode well for the heavy underdog Mavericks in a potential postseason series?
Absolutely…not.
While Dallas is a fabulously coached team under the championship-winning Rick Carlisle—with a fourth-best offensive rating to boot (110.8 PTS)—this isn’t a favorable matchup.
Superstar tandem Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will shred the Mavericks’ 23rd-ranked defense (108.4 PTS per 100 possessions). They simply don’t have anyone that can possibly match up with the high-powered duo.
And Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Calderon will not be able to shoot OKC off the floor as a compensating measure.
Durant and Westbrook will iron out any ball-handling deficiencies over the remaining 16 games.
They’ll unleash that newfound chemistry just in time for a series triumph over Dallas in five games.
No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers (48-20) versus No. 6 Golden State Warriors (42-26)
Upset alert!
No, really.
Unlike Golden State’s miraculous conquest of a “We Believe” yesteryear, this present contingent is a complete squad from point guard, to center, to bench, to head coach, to the overarching intuitive feel surrounding this team.
The Warriors’ scoring-crazed backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson is unrivaled. They have an underrated, but upper-echelon power forward in David Lee. And tenacious Aussie Andrew Bogut anchors the third-highest-rated defense per 100 possessions (102.1 PTS).
Their bench is also as comprehensive a group that exists in the NBA with Steve Blake running point. Head man Mark Jackson continually fine tunes and employs successful rotations from the starters through the last man of the second unit as well.
The Jackson-coached Warriors are 2-2 against the Los Angeles Clippers this season. That includes a gutsy fourth-quarter-fueled win on Christmas Day and a 19-point blowout on January 30.
Of course, the Clippers orchestrated their own 126-115 bum rush on Halloween and took the latest matchup on March 12. And yes, Golden State’s bench utterly failed at holding a late third-quarter lead in that recent 111-98 defeat.
Yet, despite the even season series and Doc Rivers’ championship prowess; in spite of the Clippers’ vaunted No. 2 offense (111.8 PTS per 100 possessions) and No. 7 defense (104.1 PTS); and even with the incredible trio of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan—not to mention deeper overall group—the Warriors will emerge victorious.
Why? Because the Clippers have peaked too high and too fast.
Their recent win streak ended at 11 games, but looking at their upcoming schedule, they could very well rattle off another extended stretch to close things out.
Either way, the new dominant tenants of Los Angeles will ultimately experience a comedown in May.
And Rivers—preeminent title-holding leader or not—will not be able to stop it, including a decisive ejection (see: Christmas Day matchup) of one of his players during a pivotal moment.
The Clippers must remain the Clippers for one more year. The Warriors win in seven.
No. 4 Houston Rockets (45-22) versus No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers (43-24)
Series featuring the fourth and fifth seeds usually inspire a sense of evenhandedness, at least based on records.
Last season, after all, the 56-26 Clippers squared off with the identical 56-26 Grizzlies.
This year, Houston and Portland are nearly as close in proximity. Only two games separate them in the standings.
But this matchup also pits two offensive powerhouses with stalwarts in both the back and frontcourts against each other.
The 110.1 point-scoring Rockets (per 100 possessions), led by all-stars James Harden at shooting guard and center Dwight Howard, will battle against point man Damian Lillard, power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (also all-stars) and the Blazers’ 111.9 point-tallying offense.
Better yet, the Rockets and Blazers rank first and second, respectively, in three-point field goals attempted in 2013-2014.
However, unlike the fifth-seeded Grizzlies’ upset in six games in 2012-2013, the upstart Blazers will not find themselves in a similar triumphant position.
Houston is the more experienced club with the more successful Kevin McHale at head coach. This team boasts the better, and more playoff-tested stars in Harden and Howard.
The Rockets, most importantly, are also 3-1 against the Blazers this season.
Lillard, Aldridge and the remaining Portland contingent will put up a valiant, high-scoring effort. But their defense and its 107.4 PTS-allowing tendencies will ultimately figure into this team’s demise in six games.
That said, the work done by Terry Stotts and his staff will not go unnoticed by those in influential NBA circles.
The Blazers will remain postseason-relevant for the foreseeable future.
Conference Semifinals
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs versus No. 6 Golden State Warriors
Remember that thing about recent postseason developments?
Regrettably for the Warriors faithful, it will once again rear its ugly head.
The Spurs are the more balanced, better-coached and superior overall team. They also have the undying motivation from last season’s heart-stopping defeat in the Finals to Miami.
The Warriors will improve upon their six-game defeat to San Antonio and extend this series to seven games.
But their Popovich-led adversary will not fall short of its ultimate goal two years in a row—at the very least in the conference semifinals.
No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder versus No. 4 Houston Rockets
Sometimes there’s just no getting around regular-season results.
Especially when they favor one side and are especially devastating.
Oklahoma City has prevailed over Houston via huge first-half leads, second-half comebacks and wire-to-wire domination. It has secured victory by 31, 12 and eight points.
The Thunder have also won with and without both Durant and Westbrook on the floor. They are currently 3-0 against the Rockets and will look forward to a series sweep on April 4.
Come postseason semifinals, the Rockets will win two, but not the requisite four games.
Book OKC for a spot in the conference finals.
Conference Finals
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs versus No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder
For those wanting a series featuring something other than chalk and/or the San Antonio Spurs, we offer our deepest condolences.
But for those seeking a chalk-laden matchup of epic proportions, ask and you shall receive.
In a classic head-to-head of brain versus brawn—of basketball wits against sheer hardwood prowess—the Spurs will battle tooth and nail through seven games with the Thunder.
The Spurs boast unmatched coaching, fundamentals, three-point shooting and on-court IQ.
Oklahoma City, on the other hand, owns the more talented roster powered by MVP-worthy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook—the NBA’s most dynamic point guard and a surefire superstar-in-the-making.
So, what proves the difference?
Father Time—and not in the traditional sense of the word.
As invincible, indomitable and indefatigable as Tim Duncan and Co. have been in the 21st Century, the finish line is fast approaching. They cannot reasonably expect to advance this far in the playoffs next season or beyond.
While Scott Brooks can and should expect different for his group, Gregg Popovich cannot do the same for his corps of title-winners that edge ever so closely to the age of 40.
For them to avenge their Finals heartbreak and reclaim an opportunity to secure championship status once again, it must happen now.
And that, folks, is a safer bet—safer than betting on a younger and more physically gifted—but less direly motivated—group.
Your time will come soon enough, KD.
Western Conference Champions: San Antonio Spurs
Eastern Conference
First Round
No. 1 Indiana Pacers (50-17) versus No. 8 Atlanta Hawks (30-35)
Before attrition of an 82-game season set in, the Atlanta Hawks actually resembled a formidable enough contender.
The highly effective play of center Al Horford (18.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 22.0 PER) and rising point guard Jeff Teague had the Hawks three games above .500 in late December. A 16-13 record included wins over Western powers Dallas and LAC.
Then Horford suffered a season-ending pectoral tear the day after Christmas. And a precipitous decline in Teague’s on-court contributions exacerbated the already devastating injury to their star big man.
Thus, the Hawks are now five games below .500—barely hanging on to the eighth and final seed in the East.
In any case, even with Horford fully operational, the Hawks could not have staved off a series sweep by the Indiana Pacers.
Paul George and Indiana’s top rated defense (98.2 PTS per 100 possessions) would have thoroughly smothered Atlanta then, and will do the same as the playoff standings currently dictate.
Give rookie head coach Mike Budenholzer credit if his squad breaks 100 points in any one of its four losses.
No. 2 Miami Heat (45-19) versus No. 7 Charlotte Bobcats (33-35)
Let’s first dole out some love for the Charlotte Bobcats.
They allow the sixth-fewest points per 100 possessions (103.8) in the NBA. Double-double machine Al Jefferson leads them on both ends of the floor with his 21.4 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 5.7 win shares and a well above-average 22.6 player efficiency rating.
Not bad indeed.
Let’s then seize any such praise from the Bobcats.
Their allegedly stingy defense has allowed the following individual performances: 43 points to Stephen Curry, 62 by Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James’ career-high 61 on March 3.
LeBron’s franchise-breaking total, meanwhile, brings this discussion to the only relevant statistic: The Miami Heat are a fairly commanding 4-0 versus Charlotte this season.
One of those wins came by just one point and the third needed overtime. Then again, the other two victories concluded with 16 and 17-point margins.
Book another first-round sweep for the defending champs.
Unfortunately, yet another first-year head coach bites the postseason dust in short order (sorry, Steve Clifford).
No. 3 Toronto Raptors (37-28) versus No. 6 Brooklyn Nets (34-31)
Third-seeded misery apparently loves company.
The Toronto Raptors, despite having the better players and overall record, will fall victim to the underwhelming, but playoff-experienced roster of the Brooklyn Nets.
Indeed, the all-star-level averages of 20.9 PPG, 5.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 8.6 win shares and 19.2 PER by point guard Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan won’t suffice.
Neither will Toronto’s three additional wins or the 21.2 PPG and 15.1 RPG combined totals of solid frontline pieces Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas.
So, how can a supposedly old and slow Nets contingent trump those impressive numbers? How can an elderly Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, an inconsistent Deron Williams and a non-existent Brook Lopez overtake the Raptors?
Because no collective team has been more consistent or amassed more wins during the 2014 calendar year than Brooklyn.
The Nets are a stunning 24-10 since January 1. Remember, they were a miserable 10-21 through New Year’s Eve.
What rookie head coach (yes, another one) Jason Kidd has achieved over the past two-plus months is nothing short of a miracle. There’s no other way to describe a fired-coach-in-waiting that has miraculously transformed into a potential candidate for coach of the year.
Overwrought clichés notwithstanding, the 2013-2014 Nets are truly greater than the sum of their individual parts.
The brain leads toward Toronto. But the head and heart point to Brooklyn.
Mark the Pierce and Garnett-powered Nets down for a series win in seven games—appropriate to these two squads’ hard-fought 2-2 split during the regular season.
No. 4 Chicago Bulls (37-30) versus No. 5 Washington Wizards (35-31)
How does one characterize the toughest, but most enigmatic team in the Association, a club that both scores and allows the fewest points per game?
The Tom Thibodeau-coached Chicago Bulls of 2013-2014.
Hardwood idiosyncrasies aside, these fourth-place Bulls have performed at an elite level since the New Year began. They have won 25 over their last 37 games, a record superior to that of the Heat (21-12) and equal to the top-seeded Pacers (25-12) over that span.
Joakim Noah has been every bit all-star, All-NBA and all-world quality as a triple-double-gathering point center.
That said, two of the Bulls’ 12 losses have transpired against the Washington Wizards.
Chicago’s current playoff opponent holds a respectable top-10 mark in defensive rating, giving up 104.9 points per 100 possessions.
Complementing that proficiency is dual-threat center Marcin Gortat and the high-scoring backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Small forward Trevor Ariza adds a three-point sniper to the mix with his 42.2 percent from distance.
But in the end, this series will come down to the Thibodeau-inspired defense versus Wall’s ability to transcend and take his Wizards to the next level.
And in that case, we’ll take the Bulls everyday of the week.
Chicago moves on to the semifinals in six games.
Conference Semifinals
No. 1 Indiana Pacers versus No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
The Pacers crushed the Nets during the regular season.
They sandwiched two double-digit blowouts between two closely contested, yet sound victories in November and early February.
Call it what you like, but four wins and a bupkis in the loss depart equates to unquestioned domination in our book.
While Brooklyn’s slow pace and preferred half-court execution will match up well with Indiana, the Pacers are eons more talented, qualified and motivated.
Roy Hibbert will own the paint, David West will do the same from midrange and George will revert to early-season form and dominate both ends of the floor.
The otherwise championship prowess of Pierce, Garnett and coach Kidd will not stand a chance.
In the name of respect, we’ll give one to Brooklyn. But the Pacers advance in an efficient five games.
No. 2 Miami Heat versus No. 4 Chicago Bulls
My, oh my—what an interesting series this will prove to be if this latest hypothetical turns into reality.
Let’s first take a look at the tumultuous four-game stretch that has materialized thus far between these two hated adversaries.
The Heat flattened the Bulls 107-95 on opening night. Derrick Rose’ return to the floor could not prevent Miami’s demolition following an early 9-2 deficit.
The Heat were then creamed themselves 107-87 to a Rose-less Bulls on December 5. Mr. All Everything Luol Deng led the way in the series-tying victory.
Then, without either Rose or Deng, Chicago suffered a 14-point defeat to a Miami squad sans LeBron James (broken nose).
Finally, in their most recent matchup, the Heat blew an eight-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, and the Bulls persevered in overtime 95-88.
That March 8 infuriating battle—from Miami’s perspective at least—saw James and Dwyane Wade shoot an uncharacteristic 38.5 percent from the floor and commit eight turnovers. Chris Bosh’s efficient 15 points and five rebounds barely kept the Big Three afloat.
The always-uncompromising defensive force that is Joakim Noah confounded Miami all game long. He compiled four blocks and 12 rebounds, while knocking down 9-of-16 shots with his unsightly, but effective style.
Stalwart defender Jimmy Butler, for his part, continually pestered James, adding two blocks, 11 rebounds and four steals himself.
So, when the conference semifinals comes around, how much can the Bulls dish out, how much can the Heat withstand and is an earth-shattering upset possible in this round?
In a word—a lot, a lot more and no.
For a team seeking a three-peat and its fourth-consecutive Finals appearance, the regular season seldom matters.
Yes, the Bulls took down the defending champs on multiple occasions. And Miami certainly battled all-out during their head-to-head last week.
But the Heat will bring maximum focus, absorb Chicago’s best punches and ultimately move ahead in six games.
Which brings us to the inevitable…
Conference Finals
No. 1 Indiana Pacers versus No. 2 Miami Heat
Would a colloquial “duh” adequately convey what appears in the above headline?
Again, let’s offer a brief recap of the two-game, but epic regular-season series.
The Pacers exploited Miami’s weakness by utilizing their size in Game 1. The 7’2’’ Hibbert netted a game-high 24 points and Indiana out-rebounded the Heat by 10.
West successfully muscled his 240-pound frame near the basket with 17 points and a team-high nine boards.
In the second matchup, the Heat won the crucial battles of fast break points (plus-12), points in the paint (plus-20) and turnovers (four fewer). They even grabbed an additional rebound, tallied eight more assists and forced Hibbert into foul trouble.
Yet, it was an individual head-to-head that gave Miami the edge.
James’ 24 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST, 3 STL and +16 eclipsed George’s 25 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST, 2 STL and -7. The Heat’s best simply outgunned the Pacers’ top asset in the relevant categories.
Case in point: In the final 1:05 of the fourth quarter, George missed both a go-ahead and game-tying shot, while James’ rebound, assist and steal led to Ray Allen’s game-winning three-pointer and game-sealing free throws.
When these two East juggernauts inevitably meet in the conference finals, it will boil down once again to the battle royal between these two alpha males.
Wade’s health and Indiana’s physicality inside certainly apply. Just not as much as the above dynamic.
And in that respect, the two-time champion and MVP-defending superstar gets the nod over the pupil still gunning for those titles.
This series ends in six games, as the Heat alter a recent historical trend and close things out in Indiana’s house.
Eastern Conference Champion: Miami Heat
Finals
San Antonio Spurs versus Miami Heat
It took nearly 20 years, but the NBA Finals will feature repeat participants for the first time since the 1997-1998 championships.
Out with Michael Jordan’s Bulls and the Stockton-Malone Utah Jazz.
In with the James-Wade-Bosh-powered Heat versus the Spurs’ triumvirate of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili.
All due credit to the Pacers and Thunder, but the defending champs and Texas-based dynasty represent the true class of the Association.
The Spurs sit atop the standings with a .758 winning percentage, while the Heat remain in optimal position to defend their crown.
And both have postseason pedigrees that reveal three titles apiece over the last 11 seasons.
As for this imminent matchup, expect nothing less than an unparalleled chess match on the ultimate stage.
Highly cerebral, high-IQ players and coaches—ones that utilize intelligent scheming and perfect execution against the opposition—fuel both the Spurs and Heat.
San Antonio is first in three-point accuracy and second in total assists. Miami counters with a top overall field-goal percentage and fourth-leading steals aggregate.
Each team can score and defend, ranking top-10 in per-game totals in both categories.
Both franchises also have once-in-a-lifetime players at the forward position.
So, with all that in mind, what will ultimately decide this series?
Will the deeper, hungrier, Popovich-coached Spurs prevail? Or will the best player in the world and more youthful Big Three propel the Heat to a three-peat?
In a second-consecutive seven-game series for the ages, who emerges from the hardwood rubble?
League Champion: Miami Heat
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