1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
People think Harden is all about scoring, nothing else. That couldn't be further from the truth, at least when it comes to a fantasy perspective. In addition to averaging 29 points per game, Harden racked up 6.1 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 1.7 steals per game. Those are elite fantasy numbers right there.
Needless to say, Harden finished as the top true guard in fantasy points a season ago. With Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon now on the roster, Harden won't have to shoot his way out of a slump like we saw last season. In this, his scoring average might go down. But expect Harden's rebounds and assist numbers to increase a tad with a better supporting cast.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
The Greek Freak could be utilized as anywhere from a point guard to a power forward depending on how your league values him. Here, we're simply going to go two-guard. If so, he'll definitely challenge Harden for the top spot.
This talented youngster averaged 16.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game last season. What made him such a fantasy stud is that he added 1.2 steals and 1.4 blocks per outing. That's elite across multiple statistical levels. Don't look for any regression from Anetokounmpo this season. In fact, expect an increase in the stats department with Kris Middleton sidelined for the season. 20-plus points per game is more than likely here.
3. Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
Scoring, scoring and more scoring. There's not a whole bunch more that Thompson brings to the table from a fantasy perspective. The lesser of the two splash brothers has seen his scoring average increase in each of the five seasons in the Association, topping out at 22.1 points per game this past season. Unfortunately, Thompson averaged just 3.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Those are not fantasy relevant numbers right there.
Some might believe that Thompson's scoring will go down with Kevin Durant on the Warriors. That couldn't be further from the truth. There's a reasonable expectation that Klay will once again average 17-plus shots per outing in 2016-17. If so, look for his scoring to actually increase. Simply put, Thompson, much like Stephen Curry, will see more open shots. With a .569 effective field goal percentage last season, that number might increase to 60-plus percent in 2016-17. Add in more assist opportunities with Durant in the mix, and there's no reason to believe Thompson won't increase his fantasy output here.
4. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
We have no idea how Butler will react with another scorer in Dwyane Wade on the roster. What we do know is that he'll have more open shots with Rajon Rondo calling the shots. That's a pretty big deal for a player that shot 49 percent from inside the three-point arc last season. It's definitely going to increase Butler's shooting percentage. With an expected status quo in terms of opportunities, Butler's scoring average should increase from the 20.9 he put up a season ago. Add in the 5.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists he averaged, and there's a reasonable expectation Butler will finish among the top-10 overall guards in the NBA.
5. C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers
Last year's most improved player, the ceiling appears to be the limit for McCollum here. He averaged 20.8 points while shooting 42 percent from distance in 2015-16. Compare that to 6.9 and 39 percent in 2014-15, and you now know why McCollum was recognized as the most improved. We're obviously not going to see an increase like that in 2016-17, but there's no real reason to believe McCollum can't put up 25- plus points per.
6. Victor Oladipo, Oklahoma City Thunder
Oladipo is a real unknown here. He won't be tasked with being Oklahoma City's top scorer. That task is obviously going to be up to Russell Westbrook with Durant now in Oakland. Though, as we've mentioned with others above, circumstances suggest improvement from the former Orlando Magic first-round pick this season. Westbrook's other-worldly ability to dish the ball should provide Oladipo with more open shots. In reality, he didn't have that type of point guard in Florida. Despite this, Oladipo still found a way to improve his shooting across the board last season. Should that continue in OKC and with more shots, Oladipo promises to be a much more consistent fantasy option.
7. Dwyane Wade, Chicago Bulls
Unlike last season in Miami, Wade won't be asked to be Chicago's top scorer. That task is going to be left up to the aforementioned Jimmy Butler. This should decrease the statistical output we see from Wade. Add in Rondo handling the point, and Wade's assist numbers will likely decrease too. This isn't to see he's going to struggle with the Bulls. Instead, it's all bout him not being tasked to carry a team at an advanced as. Still look for 20-plus points and five-plus assists. Not too shabby.
8. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
Here's a guy that has an untapped ceiling heading into his sophomore season. As a rookie last year, Booker averaged 13.8 points while shooting 34 percent from distance. Though, the Kentucky product averaged 20-plus points while shooting 40-plus percent from distance in March and April. This tells us a story of a young man who absolutely shined down the stretch as a rookie. Averaging just 11.4 shots last season, look for an increase to 17-plus attempts in 2016-17. If so, 20-plus points isn't out of the question here.
9. Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves
LaVine went from freak athlete to solid all-around player last year. His three-point shooting increased from 34 to 39 percent from his rookie season. In addition to this, LaVine shot 30 points higher than his rookie season. An increase from 11.7 shots per game to 15-plus will surely help LaVine continue to progress from a scoring perspective. Considering he was at 14.0 points with that few shot attempts in 2015-16, you can do the math from there.
10. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
DeRozan improved in pretty much every major statistical category last season. Putting up career-highs in points per game, assists per game, field goal percentage and three-point percentage. This had him as one of the top all-around guards in the NBA last season. Look for much of the same in 2016-17.