With the NBA gearing up for its stretch run, teams in the Western Conference are preparing their final salvos for the final 20 or so games.
In a conference where war-like competition continually dictates the playoff standings, squads will now go full bore toward optimizing their positioning.
And from now (March 6) until April 16, three distinct squadrons will dominate the battlefield.
Let’s take a look.
Tier 3: Mobile Infantry
Memphis Grizzlies, 34-26, 9th in West
Memphis sits just one game behind the eighth and final playoff seed out West.
After reaching the conference finals last year, the Grizzlies began the 2013-2014 campaign with high hopes.
Unfortunately, early-season results didn’t align with those lofty expectations.
The Grizzlies produced a disappointing 17-19 start largely due to the absence of team centerpiece Marc Gasol. Their usually dominant defense took a major hit, while the already low-scoring offense went completely stagnant.
Yet, Gasol eventually returned to the court, and his team slowly but surely got back in the hunt.
Memphis has gone 17-7 since January 14. If the Grizzlies desire another postseason berth, they must come close to that win total once again—-or at the very least win their remaining nine games against sub-.500 opponents.
And beating the two teams that sit directly in front of them over their last two games certainly wouldn’t hurt.
We’ll see if first-year head coach Dave Joerger is up to the task. After all, the Grizzlies had 26 losses all year in 2012-2013 under the unfairly terminated Lionel Hollins.
Dallas Mavericks, 36-26, 8th in West
It seems that the tide is rising to dangerous levels in Big D.
The Mavericks have lost their past three contests and are just one game ahead of postseason irrelevance.
Dallas will surely look to franchise lifeblood Dirk Nowitzki as it makes its final push toward the playoffs. The smooth-operating big man is still balling to the tune of 21.6 points per game on 49.7 percent shooting in his remarkable 16th NBA campaign.
Exactly half of the Mavericks’ concluding 20 matchups come against playoff-qualifying opponents in the Western Conference. If they emerge victorious in half of those games, spring—and perhaps summer-time—basketball could very well materialize for Rick Carlisle’s veteran bunch.
The Association’s fourth-best offensive rating (110.9 points per 100 possessions) had better show up.
Phoenix Suns, 35-25, 7th in West
Don’t look now, but the Suns are playoff-bound at 10 games above .500 as of March 6.
The once franchise favorite and now rookie head coach Jeff Hornacek has been a revelation to the organization in his present capacity.
Phoenix was a tank-worthy squad before the season began, and now holds the No. 7 seed in the fully loaded West thanks to Hornacek’s leadership.
To that end, the former backcourt star has guided the well traveled Goran Dragic into the realm of premier NBA floor generals. Dragic currently rocks a 20.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 6.2 APG stat-line, with an outstanding 22.5 player efficiency rating and 13th-ranked 8.2 win shares.
Yet, the staggering success that the Suns have accomplished up to this point could all be for naught if they don’t survive their next three games.
Up next on the schedule? The conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder, No. 6 Golden State Warriors and fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers.
The Suns will surely bank on their 3-2 record against those opponents thus far in the regular season.
Either way, we can’t wait to see how it all goes down for this inspiring upstart contingent.
Golden State Warriors, 38-24, 6th in West
The Warriors rock a respectable No. 6 in the highly stratified Western Conference.
Yet, many believe that Stephen Curry and Co. have showcased a mediocre product to date due to their at times turnover-prone, polar-opposite style of play. Some would even make the case that they should have a record identical to the 42-20, first-place divisional mark held by the Los Angeles Clippers.
That would certainly imply that Golden State has blown or straight-up given away games to inferior opponents this year (for example, consecutive losses to Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards in late January).
Potentially avoidable losses aside, what are the prospects of this team ascending the standings hierarchy? Can Mark Jackson’s sweet-shooting, but defensive-minded squad win the Pacific and earn the No. 4 overall seed?
In a word—it’s possible, but highly unlikely.
Even with 65 percent of their remaining schedule featuring contests at Oracle Arena, the Warriors sit four games back behind the Clippers with 20 left to play. One more head-to-head matchup will likely not suffice for such an upsurge in the rankings.
But rest assured Dub Nation—sixth is a fine positioning for the NBA playoff bracket. This top-10 scoring club on both ends of the floor is still poised to avoid their troublesome foes atop the West.
Well, at least in the first round.
Tier 2: Lieutenant Commanders
Portland Trail Blazers, 42-19, 5th in West
Oh, Trail Blazers, what are we to make of you?
Are you the furious scoring club that roared out to a 31-9 start or the one that stumbled through a 5-9 mark over the next 14 games?
Or could you be the 92.4 opponent-PPG, defensive surprise that has since rattled off six wins in seven tries since February 21?
Like their counterparts in Phoenix, Portland faces a thoroughly daunting task vis-à-vis
its upcoming schedule. Except in this case, it’s the next four games that traverse a veritable murderer’s row.
The Blazers will square off with the Mavericks, Rockets, Grizzlies and Spurs all in succession—and all on the road. Those are all postseason-bound opponents (or at least playoff-worthy in the case of Memphis).
Following a matchup in New Orleans with the offensive-happy Pelicans, the Blazers return home for trying battles with two more playoff teams in the form of Golden State and Washington.
And if that isn’t sufficiently demanding, they immediately get back on the road for another wearisome five-game trip.
This latest stretch away from friendly confines includes head-to-heads with the stingy Charlotte Bobcats, defending champion Miami Heat and tough-as-nails Chicago Bulls.
Good luck with those guys, Portland.
Yes, the proverbial destiny is in the Blazers’ hands. This team can certainly solidify its place in the postseason standings by taking care of its final two games versus the Warriors and Clippers at home.
But for that to transpire, a certain dynamic must hold steady. Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez—otherwise known as the healthiest starting five in the NBA (56 starts together out of 61 games)—must stay on the court.
Why? Because the lowest scoring bench in the Association (24.4 PPG) just won’t cut it.
Los Angeles Clippers, 42-20, 4th in West
That last section kind of got away from us—we’ll strive for some pithy improvement moving forward.
As previously mentioned, the Clippers occupy fourth place in the Western standings. They have attained that elevated spot via top-two scoring production and Doc Rivers’ transcendent coaching abilities.
Point guard Chris Paul, power forward Blake Griffin and center DeAndre Jordan are as impressive a Big Three as you’ll find in the game. Throw in Jamal Crawford’s shooting prowess and Matt Barnes’ tenacious defense, and this team is locked and loaded when firing on all cylinders.
Will they hold it together and realize their unlimited potential over the stretch run?
With Rivers’ championship-level preeminence gracing the sidelines, we wouldn’t bet against them.
Expect the Clippers to enter the playoffs as high as the No. 2 overall seed.
It’s not like their current five-game winning streak hasn’t already provided a fairly decent head start.
Houston Rockets, 42-19, 3rd in West
Please welcome to this discussion the most underrated good team in the Association.
The Rockets are 23 games over .500 without anyone in the general basketball fandom having noticed.
Dwight Howard has buried for good his “Dwightmare” alter ego. He has quietly resurrected back into the elite center we had all come to admire from earlier in his career.
Howard presently boasts a fantastic 22.0 PER and 7.6 win shares by way of a top-five rebound percentage (20.4) and top-three shooting rate. His 59.0 percent from the floor is a product of a massively improved offensive repertoire near the basket.
With fifth-ranked scoring man James Harden (24.5 PPG) and Chandler Parsons’ point-forward capabilities in the fold, Houston’s leading trio is a formidable corps indeed.
Kevin McHale’s offensively predicated bunch has skyrocketed to an NBA-best 21-6 record in the 2014 calendar year. That includes victories over the Wizards (twice), Blazers, Spurs, Mavericks, Suns (twice) and title-defending Heat.
However, one prominent red flag remains: The Rockets are 9-3 against San Antonio, Portland, Golden State and Phoenix, but 0-5 versus the Clippers and Thunder.
That type of matchup dichotomy could doom Houston in the playoffs.
But if the right one emerges, look out Western Conference finals.
Tier 1: Battle-Tested Generals
San Antonio Spurs, 44-16, 2nd in West
Are you even the least bit surprised?
Call em old, call em washed up, but the unapologetically unglamorous Spurs are once again dominating the NBA landscape.
They have the Association’s second-most victories, and they win just as much on the road (23-8) as they do at home (21-8). They are basketball-fundamentals personified.
To wit, San Antonio ranks fourth in free-throw percentage (78.9) despite registering the fewest fouls out of all 30 teams. When the Spurs get to the line, they capitalize.
Furthermore, they have attempted the ninth-fewest shots, but have recorded the second-most assists. That is otherwise known as near-perfect ball movement.
And in the predictable case that the usual detractors need any more doubt-eliminating evidence, the Spurs rank No. 2 in shooting percentage (48.8) and are unrivaled from distance (39.1).
Plus, Gregg Popovich’s boys have no use for any part of the 82-game regular campaign. And yet they still put up these undervalued, but gaudy statistics.
Still want to deny Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the Big-Three elder statesmen who all boast upper-echelon efficiency ratings?
Not with three championships together, not from yours truly.
Oklahoma City Thunder, 46-15, 1st in West
First in the West, tops in the NBA—the Oklahoma City Thunder are a phenomenal 31 games over the .500 mark as of March 6.
They are powered by arguably the game’s best player in Kevin Durant.
Comparisons with reigning- and four-time MVP LeBron James notwithstanding, Durant has been positively unreal during this 2013-2014 campaign.
He is the scoring leader at 31.7 PPG. He is unrivaled in player efficiency rating at 30.6. And he is worth a brain-destroying 14.9 win shares.
The man somehow finds time to also grab 7.7 boards, dish out 5.5 assists, and notch 1.5 steals—all while shooting 39.5 percent from three-point range and 51.0 overall as a 30-plus scorer.
Long story short, with Serge Ibaka anchoring the front line and Russell Westbrook, Reggie Jackson and Jeremy Lamb holding down the backcourt, the Thunder are rock solid.
As long as they don’t match up with the Toronto Raptors or Cleveland Cavaliers, the only two teams they’ve played but haven’t beaten…
All kidding aside, the Thunder are fully primed for the postseason.
Case in point: Durant and Westbrook have found their equilibrium with the dynamic point guard back on the court. Oklahoma City is on a mini three-game win streak after losing its previous three (3-3 overall in case the math proved too difficult).
A possibility of dropping in the standings remains with 11 games left against playoff-qualifying opponents.
But even if that does occur, the Thunder are the prohibitive favorites to represent the West come NBA Finals until proven otherwise.
Here’s to a compelling stretch run for all parties involved.
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