Division: Southwest Division
Last Season: 50-32 (2nd in division)
Roster additions / losses
Additions
Trevor Ariza comes over after playing the veteran swingman role in Washington with the Wizards. Ariza is here to take the place of the departed Chandler Parsons and provide a defensive presence on the perimeter. With the noted lack of defensive skills by James Harden, Ariza can make an immediate impact by guarding the opponents’ best players night in and night out.
Jason Terry lands the JET in Houston for perhaps his last go round in the NBA. Terry comes over from the Kings, where he did not appear after being traded by the Nets midseason. Terry hopes to regain his shooting touch and should provide a veteran presence off the bench. After an injury-riddled season, the Rockets are playing with house money and could have found a hidden gem with the 37 year old.
Losses
Chandler Parsons leads the list of impact players who were either traded or left in free agency from Houston. The Rockets were hit hard this offseason by departures, perhaps most importantly by their up and coming small forward who shone last season as a complementary player. Parsons heads to Dallas, and the Rockets hope Trevor Ariza can make up for his absence.
Omer Asik was disgruntled all of last season, unhappy to have his minutes reduced with the addition of Dwight Howard. He demanded to be traded and ultimately was relegated to the bench before being injured and missing a couple of months. Now he is in New Orleans, and Houston will need to replace his rebounding and defense to back up Howard in the paint.
Jeremy Lin rounds off the list of high-profile players who are no longer with the Rockets. Houston gambled on landing Chris Bosh and were oh-so-close, and in order to make that deal happen they needed the cap space to do so. This meant the end of Lin’s tenure in Houston, as they shipped him off to Los Angeles with the Lakers. Now a host of young players will have to step up to fill his minutes and role off the bench.
Key Success Factors
1. An all-star season from Dwight Howard – By his standards, Howard had a down year in his first season with the Rockets. He was still recovering from his back injuries from the previous season, and was adjusting to a new season and being a secondary scoring option. Now the Rockets need Howard to stay healthy and be the dominant force in the paint that he was for so long in Orlando. If he plays like an all-star on both ends of the floor, Houston has found its anchor.
2. Get James Harden in the pick-and-roll – Harden is one of the best pick and roll players in the NBA. If you sag off of him he will shoot the three with confidence at a high clip, but if you jump out at him he can drive right past you and score or go to the free throw line. The key here, once again, is Dwight Howard. Howard prefers to play in the post, but the combination of Howard-Harden on the pick and roll is absolutely lethal. If Harden has a multitude of pick and roll opportunities this season, he will make the right decision more often than not, and this offense will operate at an elite level like it did last season.
3. A much better defensive performance – The positives of losing Parsons, Lin, and Asik are that none of them were particularly defensive-minded. Parsons was probably the best of the three, with Asik a serviceable defender in the paint and Lin a defensive atrocity. Paired with James Harden, they were 23rd in the league in terms of points allowed per game (103.1). Ariza should help shore up some of those defensive lapses, but it is up to the coaching staff to instill a defensive mentality and really change how this team plays without the ball. As high scoring as they are, in the playoffs teams are better at getting stops and exploiting weaknesses, and Houston must be sure defense is not one of them again.
Fantasy Impact
Studs
James Harden – Harden is a no doubter here, especially from a fantasy standpoint. His only real weakness is his defense, but you probably aren’t looking for steals or blocks from him anyway. Since joining the Rockets and being thrust into a primary scoring role, Harden has averaged over 25 ppg and 6 apg, while still giving 1.5 steals per game as well (who knew!). He takes and makes a lot of shots, and is extremely adept at getting to the free throw line. Harden averaged 10 and then 9 attempts in 2012 and 2013 respectively, shooting 85 and 86%. He is a star, and you should draft him as such.
Dwight Howard – In his first season in Houston, he actually had a down year compared to his past statistics. Of course, as mentioned some of this can be explained by the system change and repairing the psychological damage suffered in Los Angeles (yikes) and his back injury. He still averaged over 18 and 12 with 2 blocks per game. With a better understanding of the system and a healthy season, Howard can rebound to his peak numbers in Orlando where he always hovered around the 20 ppg, 14 rpg, 2.5 bpg, 60% fg range. He is a star as well, so you should not let him past the second round.
Duds
Patrick Beverley - With Jeremy Lin gone, Beverley will assume more minutes and a larger role. The problem is, he has not shown he can capably handle a larger role in the NBA. For a starting point guard, you would want more than just 2.7 apg, which is exactly what Beverley averaged last year. His value comes with shooting threes and getting steals, which you can get from guys who are more all-around players fantasy-wise. Beverley should not go until late in the draft, but you can certainly find better players with more upside.
Sleeper
Terrence Jones - Also assuming a larger role will be Terrence Jones, the third year man from Kentucky. Jones is a versatile power forward who averaged 12 ppg and 7 rpg in just 27 minutes per game. He shot better from the field and from beyond the arc last season, and is poised to improve on all of his numbers this year. More shots and rebounds are there for the taking, and the Rockets showed they are invested in him by showing Omer Asik the door. He is an interesting sleeper candidate this season.
2014 Season Predictions
MVP – Dwight Howard
LVP – Jason Terry
Finish – 4th seed in the West, 2nd round exit
The Rockets should be in the thick of things where they were last season. Defense did them in against the Portland Trail Blazers, and will probably be an issue again. There simply is not an emphasis on defense in Houston. However, Harden and Howard will lead Houston (alliteration!) to the playoffs once again with a high-powered offense that can be even more deadly than last year. In a stacked west, though, the Rockets are headed for another early exit in the playoffs.