Last Season's Record: 50-32 (3rd in division)
Roster Additions
Vince Carter: This former All-Star makes the switch from one division rival to the next, as he left the Dallas Mavericks in order to fill a need for the Grizzlies on the wing. Carter is more of a catch and shoot guy now in the latter stages of his career, but he is still dangerous with the ball in his hands (just ask the Spurs). Carter will take the place of former Grizzlies sharpshooter Mike Miller, who left for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Jordan Adams: Memphis did not add a lot of free agent talent, but signed a few young prospects that they hope to grow. Adams is one of them, and has the highest ceiling of any. The team also signed Luke Hancock of Louisville, Kalin Lucas of Michigan State, and Jarnell Stokes of Tennessee. Stokes could be an impact player down low, but other than Carter none of these guys are real fantasy prospects in 2014-2015.
Roster Losses
Mike Miller left the team to join his buddy LeBron James in Cleveland. As mentioned, he was the team’s primary outside threat, and Vince Carter will fill the void. This team did not lose to many guys either, as the main core players largely stayed put this offseason. Memphis chose to regroup rather than reload, and tried to inject youth into the team while still contending this season.
Ed Davis was a growing prospect in the frontcourt who left for more playing time in Los Angeles with the Lakers. Davis backed up Zach Randolph and was somewhat effective, and this team hopes to replace his productivity with Stokes, Kosta Koufos, and Jon Leuer.
Key Success Factors
1. The vets hold off father time
This team consists of a core that is starting to fight the good fight against age. Carter, Randolph, Tayshaun Prince, and Tony Allen are all on the wrong side of 30, and in the NBA age is certainly an issue with a grueling 82 game season. The coaching staff needs to limit minutes and ensure that these guys have enough rest to last throughout the entire season. The depth is suspect and a significant loss of time would pave the way for an unproven youngster, which could spell disaster. Randolph and Prince need to keep their productivity up to keep the pressure off of guys like Marc Gasol and Mike Conley.
2. Get production from the young guns
These unproven youngsters certainly could play an important role in this team’s success in 2014. Stokes and Adams could be future stars in this league, and many consider Adams to be one of the best wing players to come out of this draft. He should have no problem cracking the roster, but this team needs to establish depth to be successful. Hancock, Lucas, Nick Calathes, and Patrick Christopher could be key guys as the season wears on. Of course, it is possible that half of these guys do not even make the final roster, so this is a situation to be monitored as the season progresses.
3. All-star seasons from Conley and Gasol
This might be a tall task, but Gasol is a former all-star and Conley has certainly played like one at times. These two are the heart and soul of the Grizzlies, and the season depends on them being effective offensively and defensively. A 20 and 10 season from Gasol would help the Grizzlies’ scoring issues, and Conley will benefit from having Carter to shoot threes as well as the return of a healthy Quincy Pondexter.
Fantasy Impact
Studs
Mike Conley – As mentioned, if Conley has a great year the Grizzlies can make the playoffs yet again. He is coming off his best scoring year at 17.2 ppg, shooting a career high 45%. His scoring has risen over the last few seasons, and that should not change this year. His assists should go up with the arrival of more shooters around him, and he could be primed for a big season.
Marc Gasol – Gasol is coming off of an injury-riddled season in which he missed 23 games and still averaged 14.6 ppg and 7.2 rpg. When healthy, he is one of the best centers in the league. He can pass, averaging 3.6 apg last season on a team that did not score the ball very well. Gasol is the rock down low, and is a consistent, solid fantasy performer that you can rely on for good production on a regular basis.
Zach Randolph – Thought I forgot about ol’ Z-Bo? Think again. Randolph is the statistical leader and beast down low for the Grizzlies, and should be one again this year. Other than an injury-plagued season in 2011-12, Z-Bo has averaged at least 15 ppg every season since joining Memphis. He has expanded his game past the 3-point line, and still consistently averages double digit rebounds. He is a double-double machine, and shoots at a high enough percentage to avoid the label of a volume scorer.
Duds
Tayshaun Prince – Though Prince is one of the best all-around players on the Grizzlies, he does not impact the game in ways that are reflected in the box score. He has not averaged double-digit points since joining Memphis, and is no longer someone you can rely upon for consistent statistics. In his only full season in Memphis, he averaged only 6 ppg and 3 rpg, playing a career-low 25 minutes per game (other than his rookie season). Simply put, avoid Prince unless you can get him late or on the waiver wire.
Sleeper
Quincy Pondexter – Pondexter was on his way to a solid season last year before breaking his foot in December and being forced to miss the rest of the year. He will be counted upon to score more and shoot at a higher clip. I could easily see Pondexter taking the next step and pushing Carter and Prince for significant minutes, as his scoring abilities are needed in this defensive minded team. If you can get Pondexter cheap, go for it, but don’t reach too far.
2014 Season Predictions
MVP – Mike Conley
LVP – Courtney Lee
Finish – 9th seed in the West, miss playoffs
Ultimately, I didn’t think this team was good enough last year to make the playoffs in the stacked west, but they edged out the Suns and Mavericks for the 7th seed. They did not make enough improvements this offseason, while other teams in the west are coming for those last few spots in the playoffs. Having Gasol and Pondexter back healthy should help, but Carter is not much of an improvement over Miller and age will start to take a toll on this veteran-laden team, as they miss the playoffs for the first time since 2009-2010.