With the NBA season preparing for regular season tip-off, it is now crunch time for fantasy general managers everywhere. Numbers are being crunched, statistics and averages are being evaluated and weighed against current abilities and schedules. Teammates, strength of schedule and injury reports are being scoured in hopes of finding just a little bit of a competitive edge.
Equally important as digging out those fantasy sleeper gems is avoiding those fantasy players who fail to live up to their pre-season expectations. Drafting a fantasy bust can torpedo your chances of claiming office bragging rights.
We have already provided you with some tremendous fantasy sleeper picks so we follow those up with our fantasy busts. Avoid these players and let your fellow general managers load up with these busts. Here are six big-name players that you would do well to avoid and I threw in one second-year player who is going to see some serious pine time this season.
I feel the need to preface this piece with the disclaimer that I do not include players coming off injuries as being busts. True fantasy busts are those who are drafted based on previous performances and who subsequently fail to live up to expectations. Case in point is Rajon Rondo, numerous fantasy sites will list Rondo as a fantasy bust. He is not a bust he is rehabbing a devastating injury.
Was Derrick Rose a bust? How about Chris Paul? No, maybe Ricky Rubio? My point is that when a guy is rehabbing and returning from injury he can’t be a bust till the season following his return. Obviously drafting a guy like Rondo comes with its risks; however, I refuse to label such a guy as a bust. With that in mind let’s delve into some true fantasy busts.
I’m going to advocate that everyone, except for Deron Williams on the Brooklyn Nets can be labelled as a fantasy bust. The talent on the roster is undeniable; however, with a stacked roster comes depressed individual stats. The aging combination of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are poised to have down years. It has already been said that Pierce and Garnett will sit some games to ensure they get some rest and it is rumoured that Garnett will sit back-to-back games.
Pierce is 36-years old and while he has thus far avoided serious injury, father time is catching up. His stats have remained solid, but they have seen a slight tapering of late. I don’t like drafting based on name recognition and by taking Pierce that is exactly what he is valued on.
Garnett has already seen his stats decrease as he has become the ‘Ray Lewis’ emotional leader type rather than the on-court performer he once was. I like Garnett, his intensity and drive is unparalleled; however, there are so many more power forwards who actually give you solid fantasy production. Again don’t draft based on name recognition, Garnett is a big name poised for a big bust.
Not to hammer the Nets any more than necessary, but in addition to Garnett and Pierce, the newly acquired Joe Johnson and the returning Brook Lopez are also poised for let down years. Let’s break this down further. Last season the Nets averaged 96.9 points per game which ranked them 17th overall in the league. Let’s say that with the acquisitions the Nets are able to bring their scoring average to 100 points per game.
If we take Johnson’s 16.3 ppg, Pierce’s 18.6 ppg, Garnett’s 14.8 ppg, Lopez’s 19.4 ppg and 18.9 ppg and Jason Terry’s 10.1 ppg averages from last season then the six players combined are going to account for 98 points per game. This quite simply is not sustainable, there is no possible way that six players can account for a team’s entire scoring output; simply put individual scoring averages will fall...they have to.
Another player who is going to fall victim to the same numbers game is Josh Smith with the Detroit Pistons. Not only do the Pistons have an already crowded front-court with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe but Smith’s outside game is not conducive to him jacking jumpers. Smith is a very skilled player; however, with new surroundings and a new role in an offense that is no longer predicated on post-play, Smith will experience a marked drop in scoring.
Over in Chicago, Joakim Noah is unfortunately poised for a bust season. Noah is too injury prone to be relied upon and he was unable to boast his shot attempts per game or his scoring average in the absence of Derrick Rose. Noah is battling injury once again to start the season and his plantar fasciitis is surely going to flare up again. Taj Gibson is a much safer play in Chicago this season.
Moving now away from the more veteran players to a second-year guy out in Toronto, I have Terrence Ross on my bust list for the season. Ross is a talented player who one day might be a relevant cog on an NBA roster; however, that role won’t come this season. Ross is stuck on the depth chart behind DeMar DeRozan and Rudy Gay and barring injury to either guy, Ross isn’t going to see much action. Given that DeRozan is under contract for the next four season at roughly $10 million per and Gay is currently costing almost twice that amount; Ross is too cheap for the Raptors to give up on or trade away and they can afford to bring him along slowly.