Our NBA player fantasy rankings continue as we look at the shooting guard position. After the top ten are off the board, and with the exception of Manu Ginobili, there is great parity among the rest.
With 30 teams in the league, you obviously have 30 players who are starting for their team at the shooting guard position. While I prefer to draft a starter over say a sixth man; the shooting guard spot is loaded with good scoring reserve players.
Most teams rely on their sixth man to provide instant offence, or to be that sharp-shooting specialist who is able to knock down the big three at the end of the game. In most cases the production of the sixth man will outweigh that of the starter. Coaches like knowing that they have an offensive weapon available off the bench.
If you can draft a shooting guard that also contributes rebounds and assists to the stat line; those are bonus fantasy points for you. Keep in mind field goal percentages when evaluating players as a low shooting line will detract from their fantasy value.
Here are the Edraft rankings for shooting guards 11- 25:
11- Manu Ginobili – San Antonio Spurs
Coming off an injury-plagued season, Ginobili only got to play in 34 games all year. He started only seven times and averaged less than 24 minutes of action per night. Even at 35 years old, Ginobili has a lot left to give and he returns this season in better health. It is likely that Gregg Popovich will limit the minutes in order to have his guys rested come playoff time; however Ginobili should still see 28-30 minutes a night. With decent playing time and an injury free season, Manu will return to averages around 15 ppg, 3.5 rpg and 4.5 apg. Ginobili is still a very versatile player who contributes nicely in all fantasy categories.
12- Arron Afflalo – Orlando Magic
There is a ridiculous amount of up-side to drafting Afflalo this season. The Magic are not a good team and lack scoring at most positions. Afflalo is the most gifted scorers on the team; however, other teams know this and defenses will be keying on this fact. After the all-star break last season, Afflalo was unreal. He averaged 17.9 ppg, while shooting over 50% from the field. I like Arron Afflalo this season, I see him as a steal of a late-round selection.
13- O.J Mayo – Dallas Mavericks
There is no other player on this list that I am higher on than O.J. Mayo. Once again returning to the starting line-up, this time for the Mavericks will do wonders for Mayo’s fantasy value. In two seasons as a starter in Memphis he averaged 18 ppg, 3.7 rpg and 3.1 apg. I like Mayo to post similar numbers for the Mavericks this season. Jason Terry is gone and that offensive punch is going to be lacking; Mayo should fill that void nicely.
14- Jason Terry – Boston Celtics
The Celtics filled the void left by Ray Allen admirably by adding Jason Terry to the roster. Terry will either start periodically or be the sixth man. I’d expect Terry to get similar minutes to when he was in Dallas, so count on 30 mpg and averages around 15 ppg, 3 apg and 2 rpg. There is the chance that Terry will be the starter; should Avery Bradley not be ready to go, or if Courtney Lee struggles. The ‘Jet’ gets you starter like stats regardless of when he comes into the game.
15- Klay Thompson – Golden State Warriors
This second-year player is coming into this season with high expectations. He contributed hugely for the warriors last season after Monta Ellis was traded and Stephen Curry re-injured his ankle. I have to temper my enthusiasm a bit on Thompson because Curry is back from injury this season and figures to be a large part of the offense again. Also, the offensive sets will be more balanced this season with the addition of Andrew Bogut to the middle of the roster. I’d expect Thompson’s minutes to stay right around 25 per game, with a slight increase in the scoring average to around 14 ppg.
16- Wesley Matthews – Portland Trailblazers
A poor shooting season last year resulted in Matthew’s numbers coming down. Still a very viable option at shooting guard as the departure of Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford should open things up offensively. Matthew’s will need to find his shooting touch as he should benefit from more touches. Given the lack of roster depth on the Blazers, expect Matthew’s to average around 16.5 ppg, 3 rpg and 2 apg.
17- Jamal Crawford – LA Clippers
The only permanent fixture in the Clippers backcourt so far is Chris Paul. The tandem of Eric Bledsoe, Chauncey Billups, Willie Green and Jamal Crawford will rotate into the starting shooting guard spot and backup point guard role. I would imagine Crawford as either the starter or of sixth man. So long as he gets around 28 mpg; he will produce for you. If Billups Achilles injury is slow to heal, then look for Crawford to get even more court time and give you more fantasy bang for your buck.
18- Ray Allen – Miami Heat
A lot of excitement in South Beach as Ray Allen joined the Heat this off-season. Allen should have a decent year primarily in a sixth-man role. I’m not as enthusiastic about Allen’s potential fantasy value though. I think Allen will be called upon to hoist the three-balls and that will be about the extent of it. I would not look at grabbing Ray Allen as there are more productive players available. Avoid the temptation to draft off of name recognition.
19- Evan Turner – Philadelphia 76ers
With Nick Young and Jason Richardson vying for playing time, it would make sense for the 76ers to slide Turner into the small forward spot. Regardless of the position, Turner will be in the starting lineup. He gives far more in terms of fantasy value than Nick Young does; as his rebounding and assist totals are pretty good. Don’t expect much in terms of three-point shooting out of Turner, he doesn’t look to take many three’s at all. I do think that with Andrew Bynum in the middle, Turner should see more open mid-range jumpers and those are very makeable for him.
20- DeMar DeRozan – Toronto Raptors
The Raptors confidence in DeRozan seems to be shaky at best. They added Terrence Ross and Landry Fields this offseason to address the shooting concerns of their perimeter players. This might actually be a good thing, as they will no longer be asking DeMar to be a spot up shooter, when he is clearly better at slashing to the hoop and scoring. I do see a drop in minutes for DeRozan, it is highly unlikely that he will continue to get 35 a night. With the decrease in playing time as well as now having more scoring options on the team, I don’t see a scoring average over 14 ppg.
21- Brandon Roy – Minnesota Timberwolves
Absent from the entire 2011-12 NBA season due to a premature retirement; Brandon Roy is back and feeling better than ever. The Timberwolves gambled on Roy’s knees staying healthy and signed him to a two year contract. If healthy, Roy will pay dividends for your fantasy roster. The gamble here is that the knees don’t hold up to the rigors of a full NBA season. Time will tell just how Roy will hold up. Huge upsides to Roy if he’s healthy; high-risk with high-reward pick.
22- Ben Gordon – Charlotte Bobcats
The lack of depth and scoring punch on the Bobcats will mean that Ben Gordon likely gets the starting spot over Gerald Henderson this season. Gordon could have a bounce-back season and actually be relevant come fantasy draft time. It is entirely possible that Gordon posts averages near those of his days in Detroit. 18 ppg, 3 rpg and 3 apg are not out of reach this season.
23- Bradley Beal – Washington Wizards
Drafting rookies can be risky as one never knows how they will adjust to the NBA style. I think Bradley Beal should be pretty quick to acclimate himself and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him start over Jamal Crawford. If you can weather the inevitable slow-start most rookies experience it might be worth it in the end. Paired with John Wall in the Wizards backcourt will make for one fast scoring offense.
24- Gerald Henderson – Charlotte Bobcats
Last season Gerald Henderson started all 55 games he played in and averaged over 33 minutes of court time. This season the Bobcats went out and got Ben Gordon then drafted Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Unfortunately for Henderson that pretty much marks the end of his days as a starter. Henderson might get spot-starts here and there but it won’t be consistent enough. The last season averages of 15.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg and 2.3 apg are not attainable this year.
25- J.R. Smith – NY Knicks
Even with the injury to Iman Shumpert and Ronnie Brewer, it doesn’t look like J.R. Smith is going to be starting. Which is probably a good thing in terms of fantasy value as Smith is better served coming off the bench and being the best scorer on the second unit. Smith also contributes solid assist and rebounding numbers. Not a bad late round pick up.
Best of the Rest – Potential waiver wire pickups:
Jason Richardson – Philadelphia 76ers
Avery Bradley – Boston Celtics
Dion Waiters – Cleveland Cavaliers
Richard Hamilton – Chicago Bulls
Courtney Lee – Boston Celtics
George Hill – Indiana Pacers
JJ Redick – Orlando Magic
Vince Carter – Dallas Mavericks
Mike Dunleavy – Milwaukee Bucks
CJ Miles – Cleveland Cavaliers
Alec Burks – Utah Jazz
Jordan Crawford – Washington Wizards
Shannon Brown – Phoenix Suns
Gary Neal – San Antonio Spurs