I love sales. When pre-draft rankings come out, I immediately go window shopping. The problem with that is, many of my fellow league members do the same. Pre-draft rankings lose their significance over time. The average draft position of a player is what truly matters. During NBA fantasy mock drafts — using the ADP measurement — a team owner can better evaluate the market’s feelings toward players.
When drafting a player, you are investing a lot in them depending on when you decided to take him. I’m here to point some of the most significant players that are being overvalued in Yahoo’s fantasy drafts, and the players that should return the best value due to their later ADP’s (at the time of this article, ADPs are subject to change daily but this advice can still be valuable moving forward) using Yahoo’s default scoring settings for Rotisserie and/or H2H.
The Overvalued
LeBron James (ADP 4.7)
At the peak of his powers, James was a top-two fantasy asset for many years. Now, with the influx of young talent, and the decline in his gaudy numbers, James is no longer a solidified top-10 fantasy player. Last year, James ended up outside the top 15 in Yahoo’s fantasy rankings.
His numbers dipped in all major categories and while a change in team is certainly to blame, James didn’t look like himself for most of the year. His turnovers often plagued owners, while posting one of the worst turnover to assist ratios in the league.
In H2H leagues, when paired with a careless guard, James can lose you the turnover battle. He has been one of the healthiest players over his career, however, early season back pain has forced him to sit out and receive an anti-inflammatory injection. This isn’t exactly catastrophic news, but it should be enough for owners to let someone else late in the first round deal with lofty expectations due to the former MVP’s name alone.
Carmelo Anthony (ADP 12.2)
Tied with several players for the final pick of the first round, Carmelo is the most obvious player to be overvalued. This is a result of his potential, but because there is a very real possibility that Melo doesn’t actually reach that potential, I say let him walk.
Playing in only 40 games last year, Melo left a bad taste in many fantasy owners’ mouths. He looks great in the preseason, but so do a lot of players who fizzle out over time. If healthy, Melo can certainly be a top asset, but with the dumpster fire Knicks are facing another throwaway season, the chances of him sitting late in the season are high. The Knicks also have one of the worst fantasy playoff schedules.
Kyrie Irving (ADP 22.9)
Point guards rule the fantasy draft boards. This year’s class is deep, and many point guard eligible players are available at the turn of the third round. Irving’s potential is obvious, as he ended up be the 10th overall fantasy player last year.
However, in rotisserie scoring leagues, his early absence could put a team at a serious detriment by drafting Irving early. In H2H leagues, the early absence can be ignore by patient owners in the hopes he can return to his normal mastery. Overall, his ADP suggests he would be playing in the season opener, which simply won’t happen.
Andrew Wiggins (ADP 60.5)
The sophomore forward looks to build on a solid rookie year, but his ADP suggest that he is already a solidified fantasy asset. He ranked outside the top 140 in Yahoo leagues last year due to his poor shooting percentages, inability to hit from downtown, and meager contributions in categories besides points.
With Karl Anthony-Townes arrival, Wiggins should be able to capitalize on better shot selection and patience. His upside is undeniable, but his ADP suggests that he is already a mid-round fantasy stud which simply isn’t true in most leagues. We will have to wait and see what the athletic forward can do this season.
Jrue Holiday (ADP 62.0)
Holiday was one of the best fantasy guards last year before reinjuring the same leg that has kept him under 80 games played over the past two seasons. Holiday will be on n a minute limit for the beginning of the season, and with the arrival of Kevin Hart look-alive Nate Robinson, the Pelicans may be able to hold off Holiday for longer as they slowly test his leg.
When healthy, Holiday is a mid-round fantasy point guard who does a little bit of everything. At his ADP, there are still better and more reliable players to take off the board.
Chandler Parsons (ADP 68.6)
The Dallas Mavericks are where all your 2015-16 fantasy hopes and dreams go to die. Parsons was a bust by all standards during his first season with the Mavs, due to a slight slip in most major scoring categories and injuries. Parsons has yet to participate in the pre-season which suggests his recovery from knee surgery isn’t as far long as the Mavs had hoped. At this ADP, owners should find more production somewhere else.
Wesley Matthews (ADP 79.5)
Coming off an even more severe injury, Matthews isn’t ready for game action. The “Iron Man” is one of the best fantasy guards when healthy, but we have no idea when that is, or if he will be remotely the same player. His ADP is outrageous. Healthy players Reggie Jackson and Bradley Beal are being taken after Wes.
Joakim Noah (ADP 82.6)
Noah’s time of fantasy greatness was limited to an extended run without a now dominant Jimmy Butler, or Derrick Rose on the court. The Bull’s frontcourt is stacked, so much so that Noah’s minutes could slip and give way to smaller lineups which include Nikola Mirotic, Bobby Portis, and Taj Gibson. There are better late big men to take like Enes Kanter or Robin Lopez.
The Bargains
Kyle Lowry (ADP 28.4)
Lowry’s disappointing end to the last NBA season should be wiped from fantasy owner’s memory. Sometimes, players just seem different and the brutal defeat of the Raptors at the hands of the Wizards during the 2015 playoff’s changed Lowry.
Over the summer, Lowry lost a considerable amount of weight while improving his conditioning. His preseason performance so far suggests that Lowry could make a push for a top three fantasy PG finish. Owners are currently taking him too late. Grab him and expect great things.
Chris Bosh (ADP 37.6)
It is outright disrespectful for Bosh to be drafted later than Hassan Whiteside. No Miami Heat player has as much upside as Bosh in an increasingly talented team who will run through Bosh. His excellent FG%, 3PT shooting, and scoring are reason alone to take him as early as you please. Fully recovered from lung issues, Bosh is one of the most concrete bounce-back candidates this year.
Reggie Jackson (APD 72.1)
Does anyone remember how Jackson performed once handed over the reins to the Pistons offense? He was averaging 17.6 PPG and 9.6 APG and he just arrived with the team. If you can deal with subpar FG%, Jackson looks poised to be a dynamic fantasy player this year in most major categories.
His ADP is probably the most outrageous of all. He will outperform many point guards currently being taken before him this year if he continues his late play last season into this one.
Tyreke Evans (ADP 79.1)
Evans will be forced to handle a lot of guard responsibility while Holiday recovers from a reoccurring leg injury, and Eric Gordon spends most of his time recovering from various bumps and bruises he incurs from getting out of the bed in the morning. Much like Reggie Jackson, fantasy owners are undervaluing Evans swiss-army knife skill set when punting FG%.
Bradley Beal (ADP 84.5)
A key cog in what is now a high-octane offense with Wall and Porter, Beal will benefit from rejuvenated John Wall who promises to cut down on turnovers. Having one of the best assist-men in the NBA feed you the ball is enough reason to give Beal a chance before this ADP.
He is a premiere three-point shooter, and an elite SPG (2.0) guard. His long range two point heaves should dwindle this year as the Wizards look to be more efficient and make a resurgence into the Eastern Conference title contender list.