The NBA regular season is quickly approaching and it isn’t too early to start mapping out your fantasy choices for the season. Let’s suppose that the fantasy-gods shine down on you and award you the first overall pick in Round 1. Unlike some other sports, this is actually a blessing in NBA fantasy because there is basically Kevin Durant then everyone else. Durant is the consensus top pick in all drafts and all draft formats. He is consistently the top fantasy performer and barring injury he will once again lead the pack.
Now the curiosity begins with Durant off the board. In season’s past the second overall pick was pretty much an automatic LeBron James, but is LeBron still valued as a second pick? Let’s take a look shall we.
Let me just preface this piece by saying that LeBron is a fantasy stud. He is capable of going off for triple-doubles on a nightly basis and he is the most well-rounded player in the league bar none. Having said that though, does the change of scenery to Cleveland, the new backcourt mate in Kyrie Irving and will playing along side a dominant scoring and rebounding forward in Kevin Love detract a bit from LeBron’s stats?
Count me among the few that actually do believe that LeBron’s fantasy value for this season isn’t what it once was worth and in reality he may not regain a top-two billing ever again. I’m not suggesting a huge slide here but I do believe that given the current set of circumstances in Cleveland James fantasy worth should be more appropriately valued as the 3rd overall pick.
I don’t see his numbers being too far off from last season’s 27.1 ppg, 6.4 apg and 6.9 rpg but the assists and rebounds are likely going to take a hit here. Add in the fact that Cleveland’s goal during the season will be to mesh as a team, figure their chemistry out and see how their assembled group of players will contribute and it all adds up to Lebron deferring more to his running mates during the regular season.
So accepting my reasoning for LeBron sliding to the third overall spot, who then jumps up to take the 2nd overall slot? The most likely candidate and the one I’m going with given the chance is none other than the New Orleans Pelicans Anthony Davis. It might be a bit premature to rank Davis this high, but the third-year pro is ready to bust out and this could be the year.
Health is always the risk with Davis, but if he can stay healthy and on the court for a full slate of games he will be a top contender to supplant LeBron as the second best fantasy option in the Association. With the addition of Omer Asik to play the center spot it allows Davis to slide back to the power forward spot where he will take less punishment defensively. Now the downside is that Asik is a stay-at-home rebounder and rim protector which may detract a bit from Davis’s rebounding and blocked shot totals, but I don’t think it will impact the production too greatly.
Now is the time to gamble on Davis as the second overall pick in your fantasy draft. Let Lebron slide to the three spot in hopes of Davis having a breakout season in which he asserts himself as a true MVP-caliber player in the league.