The stage has been set and the two combatants have been decided. The San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat will tip-off with the NBA Championship on the line come June 6th. The Spurs had to wait to learn of their opponent as the Heat went the distance before dispatching the pesky Indiana Pacers.

These two teams met twice during the regular season and normally we can glean something out of these games that might lend evidence of a trend or matchup difficulties. Not the case here as the Spurs opted to sit down Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili when they travelled to South Beach and the Heat returned the favor by holding LeBron James and Dwyane Wade out of action on the Heat’s trip into the Alamo. So while these two teams have gone against each other, the rosters were gutted and these games offer zero insight into this series.

Another relatively useless source of analysis that will be bantered about is the offensive and defensive efficiency rating of each team during their respective postseason runs. Know why this is a useless comparison? Simple, both the Heat and the Spurs are ranked number one and two respectively for offensive efficiency; obviously or they simply wouldn’t win games and thusly wouldn’t be in the finals. Both teams are also ranked top-four in defensive efficiency which makes sense as you still must hold your opponents to fewer points than you score to win games and since the Heat and Spurs continue to win then this must hold true. So these statistical comparisons mean nothing.

Anyone who has been watching these two teams battle their way through the playoff gauntlet knows that the Spurs defense is superior to that of the Heat. They rotate well, they communicate on screens and are able to switch perimeter assignments with ease. While they lack a true shot-blocking rim-protecting force ala Roy Hibbert, they make up for that by keeping the ball handler in front of them and by forcing penetration into areas where the defense can help and ultimately trap. The defensive edge in this series is decidedly in San Antonio’s favorite.

The Miami Heat have long been known to be soft in the paint both offensively and defensively. A huge difference in this series is that the Spurs won’t be looking to Tiago Splitter to carry the offense or be a consistent scorer. Granted the point per game averages for Splitter and Hibbert during the regular season are comparable, the offensive schemes in San Antonio just don’t call for Splitter to be a low-post threat.

The Heat will instead have to contend with the Spurs ball movement on offense as coach Gregg Popovich preaches a passing offense that is still predicated on the pick-and-roll. The Heat should have an easier time defending this as opposed to low-post offense. The wildcard in this is Tony Parker who should he start having his way with Mario Chalmers or Wade, I would expect to see LeBron step out and play some point-defense to cut down on the dribble-drive buckets.

There is no doubt that the coaching edge is decidedly in San Antonio’s favour as Popovich is arguably the best in the business. Erik Spoelstra is coming along, but he doesn’t have the same grasp on the nuances of the game as ol’ Pop. If this series becomes a strategic battle then the Heat are in trouble as their best basketball brains are stuck in the luxury boxes in the form of Pat Riley.

I do expect this series to be closely contested with it going the distance in seven games. Home court will become essential as both teams must put the pressure on the other to hold that advantage. I’m predicting a Miami Heat win at home in game seven with none other than Lebron James winning the Finals MVP.