As the avid NBA fan already knows, the trading deadline passed last Thursday. Unless you followed the deadline moves very closely, you probably thought this year's trades were much ado about nothing. I don't think that for two reasons. The first is because Houston's Daryl Morey was able to get Thomas Robinson, the fifth pick in last year's draft (along with Franciso Garcia) from Sacramento, solely so the Kings' notorious cheapskate owners, the Maloof Brothers, could save $4M. While this move is one that is going to pay dividends in the future for Houston, I do think it also did just enough to ensure that they will claim a playoff spot this season. On the opposite side of the deal, if this isn't the last straw and doesn't pave the road for the Kings to make their way to Seattle, I don't know what will.
The second reason why Thursday's deadline deals weren't as lackadaisical as a lot of people would lead you to believe is because by acquiring J.J. Redick, it solidified Milwaukee as a playoff team (although most people believed they would hang on to the last playoff spot in the East, regardless). Perhaps the biggest impact this trade will have on the Bucks is that Monta Ellis' minutes will almost surely be cut, and as any Warriors and Bucks fan will tell you, that couldn't have happened soon enough.
Another trade that went down just before the deadline on Thursday that is going to be a huge factor come playoff time, but went largely unnoticed by the average fan, was when Boston traded Leandro Barbosa, who is out for the season with a torn ACL, to Washington for guard Jordan Crawford. Yes, there are flaws to adding a guy like Crawford. He has never seen a shot he didn't like, and has one of the quickest triggers in the league. That said, the guy is a pure scorer, something Boston desperately needs to take some of the scoring load off of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. I think this trade absolutely makes Boston a contender in the East.
Also, a lot of people who were critical of this year's deadline moves, seem to forget that All-Star James Harden was traded to Houston before the season. Rudy Gay was also traded to Toronto a few weeks before the deadline. Typically, those types of move aren't made early in the year and are the kinds of trades people are used to talking about just after the deadline passes. That really skewed things as far as 'big names' being moved on Thursday.
With just under two months remaining until the 2013 NBA Playoffs start, there are still several questions yet to be answered: Will the Lakers make the playoffs? Will New York continue it's free-fall? Will Derrick Rose return during the regular season--or during the playoffs--or not at all? Well, my best guess may be just as good as yours at the moment, but I'll do my best to answer those questions as I give you my 2013 NBA post All-Star Break Playoff Predictions.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
(1)Miami Heat defeats (8)Milwaukee Bucks
Unfortunately for the Bucks, adding J.J. Redick isn't going to be nearly enough to give them even a snowball's chance in hell to upset the Miami Heat. Not only is LeBron James playing the best basketball of his career, Chris Bosh is silently having a great season (17 and 7 on the year) as well.
(7)Boston Celtics defeats (2)Indiana Pacers
I'm sure there are people reading this who probably think I have no idea what I'm talking about. Who knows, maybe they're right, I cannot tell the future. What I can tell you is that Boston has found a sense of urgency after Rondo (and Jared Sullinger) went down. While it's highly unlikely they continue playing at this pace the remainder of the season, barring an insane collapse, they're going to make the playoffs and this team's leaders know how to win when it matters most.
(3)Brooklyn Nets defeats (6)Atlanta Hawks
After Atlanta pulled out of a three-way trade that would have landed Josh Smith in Milwaukee at 2:59 PM EST, the Hawks moved Anthony Morrow for pennies on the dollar, indicating that they are heading for rebuilding mode. While it is as close as you can come to an absolute certainty that Atlanta is going to lose J-Smoove for next to nothing (maybe they can work out a sign-and-trade this summer, that remains to be seen), I give them slightly better odds of winning this series--though not by much. I would be shocked if Brooklyn doesn't move on to the Eastern Conference Semi's.
(5)Chicago Bulls defeats (4)New York Knicks
It remains to be seen whether or not Derrick Rose is going to play this season. By most accounts of people around him, Rose is "ready to go" and has been playing five-on-five games. Why he hasn't been cleared to return to game action yet is beyond me. Truthfully, it wouldn't surprise me if Rose sits out the entire season and comes back at 100 percent next year, however that's purely speculation on my part.
New York is 16-15 since starting the season 18-5. Unless something drastically changes, that is not going to bode well for their chances in this series. For as great of a player as he is, Carmelo Anthony has only made it out of the first round of the playoffs once, coming in 2009 when a Chauncey-led Nuggets team advanced to the Western Conference Finals.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
(1)San Antonio Spurs defeats (8)Houston Rockets
There simply isn't a lot to talk about in this series. Houston is a nice, young team, but they are nowhere near the Spurs class. They may be able to steal a game, but I wouldn't be shocked if this is a first-round sweep. There's no organization hoping I'm right on these seeds more than San Antonio is. Despite having a season full of turmoil, the Spurs would want no part of a 1 versus 8 seed against the Lakers.
(2)Los Angeles Lakers defeat (7)Los Angeles Clippers
Again, at this point, one thing should be clear to you: I firmly believe that the Lakers will make the playoffs. Whether or not they claim the seventh or eighth seed remains to be seen. The NBA fan in me is pulling for this match-up as this series would be absolute must-see basketball (although if it were to be LAL-SA in round one, that would be absolutely riveting basketball as well). This has all the potential to be a long, hard-fought, seven-game series. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Lakers were to pull the upset, but I think the Clippers will come out on top.
(3)Oklahoma City Thunder defeats (6)Golden State Warriors
Golden State's Mark Jackson has turned his Warriors around in a matter of two seasons. Not too long ago, the Bay City was the laughing stock in the NBA. With Stephen Curry, David Lee, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green getting another year playing together, I would say they are at least one year away from being serious contenders. Oklahoma City rolls in this series.
(4)Denver Nuggets defeats (5)Memphis Grizzlies
This is going to be the most entertaining of all the first round series of the playoffs. It's really a battle of two teams, as Memphis has the best bigs in the game and Denver has a very, very good back court. I believe that Memphis is going to come out victorious, setting up a rematch of two playoffs ago versus the Spurs.
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS
(1)Miami Heat defeats (4)Chicago Bulls
Make no mistake about it: Miami is winning this series whether Chicago is with or without Derrick Rose. Miami can expect a lengthy layoff before meeting Boston in the ECF yet again.
(7)Boston Celtics defeats (2)Brooklyn Nets
Again, other than their hot streak since point guard Rajon Rondo went down with a torn ACL, there isn't a ton of on-court evidence to point to as to why I think Boston wins this series. It's just something that having watched basketball for a decade-plus that I think is going to happen. Boston-newcomer, Jordan Crawford is going to play a big role, and everybody knows what The Truth, Paul Pierce is capable of. Also, no disrespect to Brook Lopez, who I actually really like as a player, but nobody would put his toughness up against Kevin Garnett's.
WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS
(1)San Antonio Spurs defeats (5)Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis beat San Antonio two years ago in the playoffs in a rather big upset. I've watched that series over and over, and no matter what, you'll never be able to convince me that Memphis was the better team. Simply put, they got lucky in that series. I told my friends when we were e-mailing back and forth about this series that if they had a seven-game series starting the next day that I would still take San Antonio to win. Needless to say, I think the Spurs get a little bit of revenge for their early exit two years ago.
(2)Los Angeles Clippers defeat (3)Oklahoma City Thunder
This series could very well go either way. However, I am going with the Clip-show. If only Oklahoma had a lock-down perimeter defender coming off the bench who was also capable of more than holding his own on offense. Well, they had exactly that before they decided to trade James Harden rather than look to finish what they started last season as a team. There's no denying that Kevin Durant is one of the best basketball players in the league. Even so, I would rather go to battle with Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Chauncey Billups and Grant Hill than Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
(1)Miami Heat defeats (7)Boston Celtics
I have no doubt that this is going to be a hard-fought series just as it was in year's past. Miami is still going to come out victorious, and will once again send Boston and their fans in to total panic mode heading in to next season. LeBron and company seem to be set on winning title number two.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
(2)Los Angeles Clippers defeats (1)San Antonio Spurs
For whatever reason, year after year, the San Antonio Spurs seem to dominate the regular season, but never end up winning the NBA Finals as of late. This season is going to be no different. There are just too many weapons in Los Angeles for them to fall short of the NBA Finals.
NBA FINALS
(2)Los Angeles Clippers defeats (1)Miami Heat
Despite the way LeBron James has played this season and is going to continue going forward, I don't think that is going to be enough to overcome a talent-loaded Clippers team. There's no doubt that Miami is going to be a top contender in 2013-'14, as is Los Angeles, so don't be surprised to see these two teams reach their respective Conference Finals.