With the 2012-13 NBA season coming to a close, it gives us pause to look back and analyze the impact of the players that debuted for the league. The 2012 Draft class was heralded as being the best since the early 2000’s.
Many of the top-prospects in the college ranks who could have declared for the 2011 draft didn’t as a result of the NBA lockout situation and the uncertainty around labour disruption. What resulted was a stocked 2012 Draft. With a full-season now under these super-rookies' belts, it is time to review how they fared. Who exceeded the expectations and who fell on their face?
We start our analysis with those who came into the league and made an impact. It is hard to say that they exceeded their pre-draft expectations given that they were still lottery picks, but these rookies came to play.
Five Biggest Impact Rookies
Damian Lillard - Guard, Portland Trailblazers
It is clear that the Trailblazers drafted themselves their point-guard of the future as they parlayed their sixth-overall selection into a sure-fire Rookie of the Year recipient. Not only has Lillard been best-in-class out of the rookie crop, he projects as the first of the bunch to make an all-star appearance. The 6’3” prodigy from Weber State University established himself right from the start of the year as he recorded a double-double in the season opener against the Los Angeles Lakers. Lillard proceeded to register six more double-doubles on the season and he failed to score in double-digits on only five occasions.
Lillard raked in his fifth consecutive Rookie of the Month Award and he is poised to make a clean sweep of the award for the season. With season averages of 18.8 ppg, 6.5 apg and 3.2 rpg Lillard has out-performed even his biggest supporters expectations. This young-man will be fun to watch for years to come in the City of Roses.
It will be interesting to see how much love he gets next season when the fantasy drafts kick off as his fantasy production on the year has him ranked 13th overall among all guards. This season he fared well in match-up games where the tempo was conducive to running the floor. With some progression on his game this offseason it is foreseeable that Lillard will be a top-ten fantasy guard option in 2013-14.
Anthony Davis - Forward, New Orleans Hornets
The first-overall selection in the 2012 Entry Draft got a slow start to the season as injuries derailed his Olympic momentum. After the initial adjustment period and once healthy, Davis began showing the NBA potential many saw from his days Kentucky. Given the emergence of Greivis Vasquez in the Hornets back court, I have to think that if the Hornets got a do over they might just take Davis again with the top pick.
Davis stat line on the season is impressive, he is averaging 13.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.1 steals and 1.8 blocks per game. He has registered 18 double-doubles on the season and maintained a .518 field goal percentage. Once he gets a bit more upper-body strength in him he will be a double-double machine and his block shot stats will increase as well.
Davis is currently ranked as the 28th most productive fantasy forward in the league, only two spots behind Serge Ibaka. Based on the potential here, Davis could project as a top-twenty forward come next years fantasy draft. The potential to overpaying for a guy like Davis is high as he is a tantalizing option; however, the forward ranks are deep with talent and Davis just doesn’t quite compete with the big-boys just yet in terms of consistent fantasy production.
Bradley Beal - Guard, Washington Wizards
Beal was the third overall selection in the draft as the Wizards went looking for some backcourt help. This season has been a bit frustrating for Beal as he has missed so much time due to injury. He is out for the year now with a stress injury to his right fibula. In the games that he did play there were certainly some signs for optimism.
The early knock on beal was that he didn’t shoot the ball well while at Florida and that he would need to work on a jump shot to be successful in the NBA. Well Beal never did find a consistent jump shot but he did have a pretty decent season nonetheless. Beal finished the season with averages of 13.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.4 apg and 0.9 steals per game.
Beal’s fantasy worth is tied to his health and his jump shot. So long as John Wall is healthy Beal will always be relegated to second-fiddle in the backcourt. The potential is there to have a Brandon Jennings / Monta Ellis like pairing, but that success is a couple years down the road at best.
Harrison Barnes - Forward, Golden State Warriors
The Warriors went after this North Carolina product with the seventh overall selection. The smooth-scoring Barnes was ultra-impressive in the college ranks; however, many wondered if he was strong enough to bring his game into the NBA. Barnes answered his critics as he blossomed into a very bright spot for the Warriors this season. He still needs work on his jump shot as well as shooting off the dribble, but his game continues to look pretty sound.
Barnes had some inconsistent nights this season as his minutes varied widely and so did his field goal accuracy. On the season Barnes is averaging 9.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg and 1.2 apg. A problem for Barnes is that the Warriors are stocked with talent and unless Klay Thompson is going somewhere, Barnes will be limited in his role.
Andre Drummond - Center, Detroit Pistons
As the 2012 NBA Draft approached, Drummond received a fair bit of hype as being the best available big-man in the draft. Many people, myself included, believed that the Toronto Raptors would be best served to grab him with the eighth pick. Instead Toronto passed on Drummond and overpaid for Terrence Ross. Drummond was sitting there at number nine and although the Pistons already had Greg Monroe the talented big-man out of the University of Connecticut was too good to pass up.
Drummond got off to a slow start as the Pistons were limiting his minutes; once he began getting 20-plus minutes a night the stats followed. Drummond is currently averaging 7.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg and 1.6 blocks per game. Despite missing more than a quarter of the season due to injury, Drummond showed some great promise for a rookie. He put up eight double-doubles on the season and with some more experience and playing time he will be a player to watch as double-double nights will become the norm.
The twin-towers approach in Detroit actually seems to be working quite well, unfortunately without any consistent wing-scoring options the opposing defenses can collapse and limit Drummond’s effectiveness in the post. A HUGE downside to Drummond’s game is his free throw shooting, which in a word, is horrendous. Despite some abysmal charity stripe production, his field goal percentages were solid. If not for the injuries, Drummond would have finished near the top-twenty in terms of fantasy production at the center spot and he projects as a top-twenty fantasy center option for next season.