NBA Rookie Review - Five Up & Comers

By Andrew Brand on Friday, April 12th 2013
NBA Rookie Review - Five Up & Comers

The rookie class of 2012 was heralded as being the best in years. The draft was supposed to be stocked with can’t miss prospects and potential franchise type players. While there certainly were some that met their pre-draft billing, the majority fell short of expectations.

We continue our analysis of the draft picks, assess their season and project their fantasy worth entering next season. Check out EDraft’s Top Five Performing Rookies and stay tuned for the five underachievers of the draft class.

What follows are the best of the bunch who had an impact and who are fantasy-risers to keep your eye on for next season.

 

Rookies Who Are On Their Way:

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - Forward, Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats used the second overall pick on Kentucky’s Kidd-Gilchrist. A very talented and smooth-scoring collegiate player whose game figured to translate nicely into the NBA. Well we saw flickers of that ability throughout the season; however, consistency plagued Kidd-Gilchrist. Some games he looked like the best player on the court, other nights one would have a hard-time even noticing him on the court. Fantasy general managers who used an early round selection on him were severely disappointed and based on this season his fantasy stock headed into next year is going to be quite low.


Dion Waiters - Guard, Cleveland Cavaliers

Waiters was projected as a top-seven pick in the draft and the Cavaliers liked enough of him to make him the fourth overall pick. The hopes are for a dynamic backcourt pairing of two young explosive players in Kyrie Irving and Waiters. Waiters was utilized primarily as the shooting guard and as a complementary piece to the offense. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, their shooting guard proved that he isn’t that good of a shooter. Waiters showed all year long that he was hesitant to pull the trigger on jump shots and he preferred to score on dribble-drives to the basket.

The season end stats for Waiters weren’t too bad as he posted averages of 14.7 ppg, 3.0 apg and 2.4 rpg. By comparison Klay Thompson in Golden State only averaged two more points per game while they both shot comparably well from the field. If Waiters can blossom into a consistent shooter with a higher field goal percentage he has the potential to become a 18 point per game player.

I see Waiters fantasy value for next season as being a top 35 guard in the league. I certainly like his upside and potential far more than a Gordon Hayward or a diminished Vince Carter. The potential for a 16 ppg average next season is very real and should he turn into a semi-decent rebounding guard his fantasy value will skyrocket.


Moe Harkless - Forward, Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic have to be thrilled with the play they have seen out of Harkless. Originally drafted 15th overall by the Philadelphia 76ers, Harkless was a minor cog in the Dwight Howard exodus from Orlando. Harkless has outperformed the Magic’s own draft picks from the draft and he has since played himself into a key role on the rebuilding Magic.

The season started slowly as Harkless wasn’t receiving any playing time. That all changed as January rolled around as he began getting consistent minutes. He made the most of the playing time as he averaged 11.5 ppg and 6.5 rpg in January followed by 13.1 ppg and 5.6 rpg in February. With the emergence of Harkless, Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris the future looks bright in Orlando.

Harkless’ fantasy value is tied to his playing time as both he and Harris essentially play the same position. Even in a reserve role he is still capable of putting up solid numbers; however, he is truly only an option in deep leagues.


Jonas Valanciunas - Center, Toronto Raptors

Valanciunas was the Raptors fifth overall selection in the 2011 NBA Entry Draft. While Bryan Colangelo’s pick was met with criticism as Valanciunas didn’t play in the NBA his first year and Raptor fans were looking for some immediate upgrades to the roster. The 2011 draft was considered a weak one in terms of talent and as it turns out Valanciunas at the five spot was a pretty solid pick. Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Nikola Vucevic and Kenneth Faried all went in the first round after the Raptors selected; however, hindsight being what it is, this pick was pretty solid.

A slow start to the season for Valanciunas did nothing to silence his critics; however, glimpses of his talent were seen and come late February and March Valanciunas really hit his stride. I do see March’s production becoming the norm as averages of 11.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 1.1 blocks per game should be sustainable for next season. A potential top-twenty centerman who still needs to develop and polish his offensive skill set.


Thomas Robinson - Forward, Houston Rockets

Traded mid-season from Sacramento to Houston, Robinson was in the unique position of moving in his rookie season. I’d like to think that Sacramento saw something that was concerning or maybe they over-evaluated his talent, but then again it is Sacramento and who knows why they would give up so soon on the fifth overall pick from the 2012 Entry Draft.

Here is one rookie who really isn’t represented well by just statistics. Robinson gets very limited minutes and doesn’t really get a chance to get into a rhythm offensively. He is still a very gifted player who has ridiculous upside and potential. That being said, his fantasy value is minimal and only in deep leagues or keeper leagues would I consider drafting him.

 

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Pistons
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Cavaliers
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Celtics
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Nets
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Bucks
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Knicks
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Mavericks
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Grizzlies
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Thunder
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Nuggets
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Clippers
88
Timberwolves
92
Nets
110
Spurs
126
Jazz
118
Pelicans
129
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109
Hornets
133
76ers
124
Heat
117
Bulls
112
Trail Blazers
121
Magic
108
Rockets
113
Mavericks
121
Kings
130
Hawks
126
Wizards
96
Suns
113
Lakers
110
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Hornets
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Trail Blazers
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3:30 PM ET
Heat
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Rockets
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7:00 PM ET
Wizards
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Raptors
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Warriors
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Lakers
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Jazz
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Pelicans
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