Welcome to the inaugural edition of eDraft’s NBA Season Preview. We turn our attention to the Southwest Division, covering everyone from the pretenders to the contenders. Today we take a look at the Rockets. They made several high risk moves this off-season, but do they have the talent to reach the playoffs?

Key additions: Omer Asik (C), James Harden (G) Jeremy Lin (G), Carlos Delfino (G),
Toney Douglas (G), Royce White(16th overall, F)

When President Richard Nixon visited China in 1972 he reportedly asked Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai his thoughts on the impact of the French Revolution (1789). The Premier’s answer: it is too early to say. Though probably apocryphal, the quote illustrates the import of taking the long view, and Houston fans would be wise to embrace Zhou’s message. The Rockets made several key moves this past off-season, chief among them the acquisition of guards Jeremy Lin and James Harden. With a brand new backcourt and a superstar in tow the Rockets’ future prospects are bright, but the rewards of these bold deals are probably still a few years away.
Much will depend on the play of neophyte Lin (10.3PPG-6.5APG.4.5RPG-37FG%-12.59PER), who grabbed the world’s attention with his flash of brilliance last winter. The story is, by now, well known: Lin, a virtual rookie, came off the end of the Knicks bench to ignite his floundering team, demolishing records and expectations along the way.

But Lin got injured, the Knicks were eliminated in the first round by the Heat, and Lin was allowed to walk. Evidently there were few teams willing to take the risk on Lin, whose potential was an unknown, but the Rockets were happy to offer Lin a substantial contract this summer, and plan to feature Lin as a focal point in the offense.

The doubters, and there are many, say that Lin lacks the size, jump shot, and ball handling skills to be an elite point guard, that Lin is better suited as a backup. The sceptics may be right in the end, but it’s important to remember just how few games Lin has played. He will inevitably learn to protect the ball better, master play calling, and improve his shot. He may never be an all-star but he should stick around the league for awhile, and will win some games for his team.

Harden (24.5PPG-5.3APG-4.2RPG-20.82PER), on the other hand, is a sure thing. Although he came off the bench for the Thunder (he was Sixth-Man of the Year), the young shooting guard was widely considered a top 20 NBA player who would have been the face of the franchise had he not been paired with both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

Harden had an exceptionally good situation in Oklahoma, the championship was in reach last season, and might he have been persuaded to stay put as a backup had he been offered a max contract. But, for team ownership the price was too high for a bench player, even one as gifted as Harden, and he was traded to Houston for Kevin Martin, and rookies Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones. Harden signed a max contract in Houston (five years, $80 million) and is now the cornerstone of the Rockets. There are few players in the league who would have been worth the price Houston ultimately paid for him, but Harden is a rare find: an above average shooter, quick off the dribble, an excellent ball handler, and extremely intelligent to boot. He will carry a heavy load this season, as Houston has few other options on offense to turn to, but the Harden acquisition should make Houston GM Daryl Morey look very smart indeed.

And Harden is not completely alone on the offensive end. The Rockets brought in Omer Asik (10.8PPG-12.3RPG-1BLKPG-13.46PER) primarily for defensive purposes this off-season but he has already proven himself to be a capable scorer. He is slow and somewhat flatfooted, but his moves around the basket have been impressive and he has become a reliable scoring option. It’s anyone’s guess if he can maintain the output for a whole season, but the team is optimistic. If draftee Royce White can overcome his phobias of flying and make peace with management he should also take some of the scoring pressure off of Harden. There are many unresolved questions for this team over whether major roster overhaul and big contracts were worth the risk, but in the end only time will tell.

Reasons for optimism: Chandler Parsons is a nice player and a pleasant surprise for the team in this young season. He is a solid rebounder and has proven to be an above average scorer; it will be interesting to watch his game develop this year.

Reason for despair: watching the Royce White drama unfold has been depressing. Here we have a young player being reprimanded for being honest with team officials about his debilitating anxiety, and serious ethical questions being raised by the behavior of team officials. At the same time White is unable to fill his contractual obligations due to his sickness and it can’t be easy for the team to have such an important player missing frequent practices. There is no easy answer here, but I would love to see Royce get his chance in the NBA: I think he’s one talented player.  

Projected record: 32-50