NBA Trade Deadline and How Moves Affect Fantasy Values

By Andrew Brand on Sunday, February 17th 2013
NBA Trade Deadline and How Moves Affect Fantasy Values

 

The NBA trade deadline is fast approaching as teams have less than a week to consummate any deals. The rumours and speculation about potential moves are flying around as every news source in every NBA city is proposing their own trade recommendations for their clubs. Many of the trade scenarios that are being mentioned are ridiculous to really fathom, yet they continue to get media run.

Let’s just start by saying that the Los Angeles Lakers are not going to trade Dwight Howard to the Boston Celtics for Rajon Rondo. Why this is getting so much run is beyond me as the Lakers will not throw in the towel on the season by taking back a player who is surely not going to suit up for them.

There could be some minor shakeups as the February 21st deadline approaches as teams look to fill their benches and restock for a playoff run. Bit players aside, here are ten players who are significant talents in the Association and any trades involving these guys could significantly change the playoff landscape.

We won’t waste your time by throwing out unsubstantiated trade rumours here. What follows is a breakdown of who is likely to be moved by the deadline and whether or not it will be a boom or bust to their fantasy value.

 

Josh Smith – Atlanta Hawks

Just in case you get the chance to ask his opinion; but Josh Smith will likely tell you that he is the biggest name out there come trade deadline 2013. This might be true and for the bargain price of a max contract over the next five years, Josh Smith can be yours. Now giving Josh Smith a max contract would rank slightly behind Joe Johnson’s max contract in terms of idiocy, but you just never know. I can’t see a team willing to give up great value for Smith as they are going to mortgage their franchise on the guy for a new contract and would get depleted of draft picks in the deal too; both options could be absolutely fatal for a team. I think most teams see Josh Smith’s limitations and most playoff bound teams are not willing to have Smith freelance the offense like he does in Atlanta. Should Smith get traded his fantasy value will decrease as he likely won’t have the same offensive freedom or role on a new team.

 

Ben Gordon – Charlotte Bobcats

Someone should tell Ben Gordon that the year is 2013, not 2008; which happens to coincide to the last year that Ben Gordon played descent basketball. While finishing out a ridiculous contract that is paying him $12.4 million this season, Gordon has sunk to new lows in terms on court production. Throw in Gordon’s recent childish behaviour and disrespect to head Coach Mike Dunlap and the Bobcats have to be actively pursuing trade partners. The Bobcats might have to package Gordon with an attractive young player to get teams interested, but even then it might still be worth it to rid themselves of this mess. If Gordon relocates come deadline time then his fantasy worth will also decline. If you can’t be successful on a team that lacks a true scorer and has managed 12 wins on the season then you are pretty much finished. Gordon’s value must be downgraded to that of a role player who sees spot minutes off the bench.

 

Kris Humphries – Brooklyn Nets

Kris Humphries has long been rumoured to be available via a trade. Unfortunately for the Brooklyn Nets, Humphries has regressed in his on-court production and effort. This is problematic as the Nets inked Humphries to a contract after he came off a career year and now the buyer’s remorse has set in for the boys in Brooklyn. Humphries is still a serviceable big man who will rebound and chip in with a few baskets; however, his trade value lies in his contract as it can be used to salary match an incoming player’s wage. A trade for Humphries is just what he needs as he can be productive given the right chance. Unfortunately any trade involving Humphries is only for the short terms as most teams don’t want his salary on the books for next season. A trade won’t affect Humphries fantasy value too greatly as he holds only minimal value to start with.

 

Paul Millsap – Utah Jazz

Both Al Jefferson and Millsap are without contracts for next season which makes both players potential trade targets. While Jefferson is the better player he comes with bigger salary demands for an extension. Millsap on the other hand offers prospective teams a very productive power forward that is coming off a very reasonable contract. In reality both of these guys could be had for the right price as the Jazz have the luxury of having Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting in the wings. If the rumours are to be believed, the Utah Jazz could potentially swing a trade with their Western Conference rival San Antonio Spurs for either Millsap or Jefferson. For either player a trade to the Spurs would be a boost as coach Gregg Popovich runs a simple offense that benefits post up players. A trade elsewhere for either player into a system that is predicated on a more run and gun style of offense would be detrimental to their fantasy value.

 

Andrea Bargnani – Toronto Raptors

It is clear that the Toronto Raptors no longer need or want Andrea Bargnani. The former first overall draft pick has just not panned out in the manner that many were hoping and Bryan Colangelo recognizes the error of his ways six years ago and wants to cut ties with the Italian big. According to multiple reports there is a potential trade brewing that involves Bargnani and the Chicago Bulls Carlos Boozer. I can’t see why the Bulls would part with Boozer at this point in the season, unless of course they know that Derrick Rose is not playing this season and that a deep playoff run seems unlikely. If this offer is on the table then I can’t understand why the Raptors haven’t pulled the trigger on it. I firmly believe that Bargnani is over-valued in most fantasy leagues and I don’t see how a trade could possibly benefit that status at all. Bargnani cannot be looked upon as a reliable fantasy option, he is injury prone and too soft for a big man; a trade doesn’t change those two factors at all.

 

Carlos Boozer – Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls need Carlos Boozer if they are to challenge for an NBA title this season. If that is not a reality based upon Derrick Rose’s rehabilitation then trading Boozer now makes absolute sense. For Boozer’s part he does represent a significant talent and would upgrade a team’s front court for the playoffs. A willing trade partner must be willing to take on the next two years of Boozer’s contract at $15.3 and $16.8 million respectively.

If the Los Angeles Lakers could somehow convince the Bulls to take Pau Gasol off their hands, maybe even at the cost of throwing in Earl Clark then that would actually be beneficial to both teams. I think that Boozer’s fantasy value could rebound if he is traded. Boozer is capable of posting solid numbers; however, he is fighting with Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson for playing time and stats. If Boozer’s new team lacks size and aggressiveness around the basket then Boozer could flourish.

 

DeJaun Blair – San Antonio Spurs

Expect any deal involving the San Antonio Spurs make to include DeJaun Blair. This fourth year pro is a free agent next season and he will be looking for a pay increase off his $1 million salary for this season. From the Spurs perspective, Blair has fallen victim to the glut of serviceable big men on the roster. He just isn’t getting the minutes with the Spurs this season and that situation isn’t likely going to change. A trade for Blair would represent an opportunity to play and minutes are all Blair needs to be productive. His current fantasy worth is not correlated to his ability in so much as it is to his playing time. Given the chance, Blair will contribute and his fantasy value will go up accordingly.

 

Will Bynum – Detroit Pistons

With the Pistons acquisition of Jose Calderon, Will Bynum has seen his playing time and production in rapid decline. He doesn’t appear to be a part of the Pistons future plans and the Pistons could look to move him and his expiring contract at the deadline. Bynum is not a starting point guard in the league, he is however a serviceable player coming off the bench. A team that is void of depth at the point guard spot (Boston Celtics) could make a move for Bynum as he represents a cheap option for the duration of the season. Bynum currently has a limited fantasy value; however, a trade could represent a chance for Bynum to get some consistent court time and become relevant again among fantasy point guards.

 

Gordon Hayward – Utah Jazz

Gordon Hayward represents a valuable trade chip for the Utah Jazz. Hayward is a young player who has shown his skill in the Association. Currently averaging 13.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg and 2.5 pg while only making $2.7 million this season with another year to follow that is guaranteed at $3.4 million. Teams will be doing their due diligence in calling the Jazz to inquire as to the trade status of Hayward and the Jazz would be remiss to not listen to prospective offers. I think Hayward will get moved here at the deadline as the Jazz are not using him to his fullest potential and if they can get a draft pick back plus a decent guard then Hayward could find himself on the move. A trade would almost certainly increase Hayward’s fantasy value as prospective teams could use Hayward as a primary option coming off the bench.

 

Eric Gordon – New Orleans Hornets

The Eric Gordon soap opera in New Orleans continues. Despite Gordon’s pleas with the Hornets organization to not match the max contract offer he received from Phoenix, the Hornets went ahead and did it anyways. Now normally committing $58 million to a player is cause for celebration not despair; however, Eric Gordon seems to be pouting all the way to the bank as his play has been sporadic and inconsistent at the best of times.

Now the Hornets organization is still quiet keen on Gordon and they will want to see what a Gordon, Austin Rivers and Anthony Davis lineup would look like so any trade involving Gordon would have to bring some serious talent back to New Orleans. As it stands right now, Eric Gordon isn’t even the best point guard on the team as that honor goes to third year player Greivis Vasquez who will be looking for a significant pay increase upon the expiration of his rookie contract. Gordon’s fantasy value has been hurting recently due to the downtrodden production; however a trade to the right kind of team and Gordon’s value could take off again in a hurry.

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Scores

7:00 PM ET
Pistons
-
Cavaliers
-
7:30 PM ET
Celtics
-
Nets
-
8:00 PM ET
Bucks
-
Knicks
-
8:30 PM ET
Mavericks
-
Grizzlies
-
9:30 PM ET
Thunder
-
Nuggets
-
Nets
110
Spurs
126
Jazz
118
Pelicans
129
Pacers
109
Hornets
133
76ers
124
Heat
117
Bulls
112
Trail Blazers
121
Clippers
88
Timberwolves
94
Magic
108
Rockets
113
Mavericks
121
Kings
130
Hawks
126
Wizards
96
Suns
113
Lakers
110
1:00 PM ET
Hornets
-
Trail Blazers
-
3:30 PM ET
Heat
-
Rockets
-
7:00 PM ET
Wizards
-
Raptors
-
8:30 PM ET
Warriors
-
Lakers
-
9:30 PM ET
Jazz
-
Pelicans
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