So after all of the excitement of the first two rounds in the NBA playoffs, we arrive at the conference finals with the top four teams standing. In the west, that means the Warriors and Rockets square off in a battle between the MVP and the MVP runner up. It should be an exciting series full of intensity, action, and lots and lots of threes.
Do the Rockets stand a chance against a team that is starting to hit its stride again? In the regular season, Golden State swept Houston 4-0, but the Rockets look like a new team after their resurrection against the Clippers. Plus, Dwight Howard only played in two of those games and wasn’t 100%. Will it matter, though, against the odds-on favorite to win it all? Let’s take a look at the keys to the series, and why one of these teams will emerge victorious.
Battle of the MVPs
Of course, there was only one real MVP, and Stephen Curry has played like one for most of these playoffs. The runner-up, James Harden has had his moments of glory and infamy, but must be given credit for leading the Rockets past the second round. Which one has the upper hand in this series? My money is on Curry.
For starters, the Rockets defense is shaky at best, and that was with starting point guard and noted defensive menace Patrick Beverley in the fold. Now that he’s out, Steph Curry could (and should) have even more of a field day. On the other end, the Warriors are the best defense the Rockets will play in this postseason. Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, and Draymond Green make any player’s game a nightmare, and they have done an excellent job on Harden this season.
Curry has the advantage here for those reasons and also the value he adds on defense. While Harden has become an average-ish defender, Curry has improved is defense and is one of the steals leaders of the NBA. With no true point guard to match up with him, the MVP is looking at this series like a hungry dog eyeing a juicy steak.
Advantage: Warriors
Frontcourt Fireworks
The playoff matchup should provide more intriguing matchups along the frontline than we saw in the regular season. For starters, Dwight Howard was either injured or limited in their matchups, so seeing him finally healthy will introduce a new aspect to the matchup. He will force Andrew Bogut to defend someone superior to him athletically, unlike Bogut saw against Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph last round. Howard has been dunking everything in sight and was a real force against DeAndre Jordan, and could be a big factor in this series.
Foul trouble will have a huge impact along the frontline as well. If either Bogut or Howard gets in early foul trouble, neither team has a legitimate backup center to fill in. Golden State’s depth is mostly along the perimeter and wings, while Houston’s depth is mostly at the power forward and small forward positions. Don’t think for a second that Steve Kerr didn’t see how successful the “Hack-a-Howard” was in the last series, and he won’t hesitate to use it to get Howard out of the game.
The other major factor along the frontline is which Josh Smith shows up against the Warriors. Will it be the one who was ejected in a game against Golden State earlier this season? Or will it be the one who led the game six comeback and game seven victory that may have sealed his place in Houston lore. His presence could provide a huge boost to the Rockets (or the Warriors) depending on which one we see.
Advantage: Rockets
Three Fallin’
This late in the season, there are no secrets when it comes to teams’ preferred offensive styles and tendencies. In this particular case, it is no secret that each of these teams loves to shoot threes. During the regular season, they ranked 1-2 (Houston, Golden State) in threes made, and 1-4 (Houston, Golden State) in threes attempted. The Warriors had the best three-point percentage in the league, highlighted by the Splash Brothers and their uncanny ability to knock ‘em down.
In the regular season, each team averaged almost 10 threes per game, but the Warriors shot almost 10% better en route to the season sweep. Their diversity and ability to mix and match provides them with a distinct advantage throughout the course of a game. The Rockets have to deal with potentially guarding two of the best shooters in the league, who can both hit shots off the dribble and from off the ball, while also preparing against Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes. Offensive versatility is the name of the game for the Warriors, and it has been their bread and butter all year.
For the Rockets, they need to shoot threes in order to win. A major part of their series comeback against the Clippers is that they simply started hitting those long-range shots. Trevor Ariza became an x-factor both offensively and defensively, as did Corey Brewer. Both of them and Josh Smith all started making threes, and it opened the floor for James Harden to attack. However, the Rockets are going to have to make those shots against a much tougher defense, and will have to improve in such a way that the long ball becomes a distinct advantage in the series. Both of those are tall tasks, and it remains to be seen if they can be accomplished.
Advantage: Warriors
Series Prediction: Warriors in 6
Ultimately, the Warriors are too balanced and too deep for the Rockets. Even at full strength, it’d be a tall order for Houston to knock down the prohibitive championship favorites. I think the Rockets will carry some momentum into this series and can make it interesting, but won’t be able to get over the hill and make the finals.