The NBA’s Western Conference provided the best matchups in the regular season, and will continue doing so during the first round of the 2013-2014 playoffs.
Seven of the eight qualifying teams racked up at least 50 wins. The lowest seed Dallas Mavericks still managed 49, including a tremendous 23 victories on the road.
No team in the East accomplished that feat. Not even the No. 1 Indiana Pacers or defending champion Miami Heat.
The top three teams in the West are also tops in the Association. The San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers all won 70 percent of their games.
As for riveting storylines, each series most certainly has one.
The Spurs and Mavs will duke it out in an historical in-state rivalry, while the Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies will resume their own heated postseason history in recent years.
The Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers, for their part, will easily explode with 240 combined points on a nightly basis. And the Clippers v. Golden State Warriors is not only the best matchup of the opening round, it’s perhaps the most compelling head-to-head of the entire postseason.
On that note, let’s now offer first-round previews and predictions for every playoff series in the Western Conference.
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs versus No. 8 Dallas Mavericks
San Antonio
Record: 62-20
PTS/G: 105.4 (6th of 30) | Opp PTS/G: 97.6 (6th of 30)
Off Rtg: 110.5 (7th of 30) | Def Rtg: 102.4 (3rd of 30)
Dallas
Record: 49-33
PTS/G: 104.8 (8th of 30) | Opp PTS/G: 102.4 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (3rd of 30) | Def Rtg: 108.7 (22nd of 30)
Season Series: SAS 4, DAL 0
Preview
If offense wins in the regular season and defense reigns supreme in the playoffs, then one of these Texas-based squads owns a distinct advantage.
The Spurs rank top-seven in the four major team-wide offensive and defensive scoring metrics. They produce those 110.5 points per 100 possessions by leading the NBA in both assists and three-point percentage. Grabbing the fourth-most rebounds on defense and limiting opponents to the fewest made threes illuminates their comprehensive strength on both ends of the court.
The Big 3 of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili still operate at a high level. But it’s the Kawhi Leonard-led supporting cast that really solidifies the best team in the Association.
In a word, watching the Spurs is like witnessing basketball perfection. They are fundamentally unmatched, and quite simply do everything well.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, are an offensive powerhouse in their own right. They rank only behind the Spurs in three-point accuracy (38.4 percent) and qualify in the top eight in all relevant categories on offense. Only three squads average more points per 100 possessions.
Their defense, unfortunately, cannot join in on the statistical fun. Opponents boast the ninth-best shooting rate from distance (46.4 percent) and score to the same level of success per 100 possessions (108.7).
Dirk Nowitzki remains the headliner in Big D. The transcendent, smooth-shooting power forward leads a veteran starting-contingent that averages 32 years of age. Sixth Man of the Year candidate Vince Carter is the X-factor off the bench.
Regrettably, what once existed as a legitimate rivalry has been anything but over the last two years.
San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 against the Mavs since 2012-2013. That obviously includes a 4-0 series sweep this season.
The Spurs outscored Dallas by an average of 10.8 points. They enjoyed comfortable leads entering each of the fourth quarters, and won by 22 on Jan. 8. They finished off their Lone Star counterparts with a nine-point victory last week.
Can Dallas buck the trend or will lopsided final scores continue in the playoffs?
Prediction
Champion head coach Rick Carlisle will put together a fine game plan for Dallas and Nowitzki will lead a valiant effort. And even though any such inferiority complex isn’t part of this team’s M.O., the Gregg Popovich-coached Spurs are just too good, too deep and too focused.
San Antonio in 5 Games
No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder versus No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City
Record: 59-23
PTS/G: 106.2 (5th of 30) | Opp PTS/G: 99.8 (12th of 30)
Off Rtg: 110.5 (6th of 30) | Def Rtg: 103.9 (6th of 30)
Memphis
Record: 50-32
PTS/G: 96.1 (27th of 30) | Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (3rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.3 (15th of 30) | Def Rtg: 104.6 (7th of 30)
Season Series: OKC 3, MEM 1
Preview
Like the first matchup previewed above, if past history is the best predictor of future results, then one team will advance to the semifinals in short order.
The Thunder were one of the Association’s most balanced squads in 2013-2014. They ranked sixth overall in both points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. They compiled the second-highest rate from the foul line (80.6 percent), while grabbing the seventh-most rebounds and blocking more shots than all but one team.
Oklahoma City will ultimately live and die by the on-floor dynamism of its two superstars. As long as presumptive MVP Kevin Durant and all-world point guard Russell Westbrook find a mutual compatibility, this team could very well be unstoppable.
The Memphis Grizzlies, for their part, exist on the other end of the basketball spectrum.
They average the fewest possessions per 48 minutes (89.9) and are unequivocally a defensive-minded grinder. They’ve attempted and made the least amount of threes in the NBA, but have also limited opponents to the fewest made shots. And only two teams allow fewer points per game.
Success for Memphis begins and ends with versatile center Marc Gasol. The Grizzlies suffered through a 10-13 spell from late November through early January without their do-everything big man on the court. When he returned, they dominated the opposition en route to a 33-13 record.
Durant and Co. captured the regular-season series by a 3-1 mark. This payback of sorts came after the Grizzlies won four straight over the Westbrook-less Thunder in the conference semifinals last year.
Now with both Durant and Westbrook back in action, who wins Round 3?
Prediction
Even without Lionel Hollins, the Grizzlies still competed with full hearts, zero fear and maximum tenacity under first-year head coach Dave Joerger. And they remain foundationally built for winning in the playoffs. It just won’t be enough against the veteran savvy of Scott Brooks and Oklahoma City’s world-beating athleticism.
Oklahoma City in 6 Games
No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers versus No. 6 Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles
Record: 57-25
PTS/G: 107.9 (1st of 30) | Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (14th of 30)
Off Rtg: 112.1 (1st of 30) | Def Rtg: 104.8 (9th of 30)
Golden State
Record: 51-31
PTS/G: 104.3 (10th of 30) | Opp PTS/G: 99.5 (10th of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.5 (12th of 30) | Def Rtg: 102.6 (4th of 30)
Season Series: LAC 2, GSW 2
Preview
Anyone ready for the most exciting matchup of the opening round, if not the entire NBA playoffs?
No team combines championship-level coaching with such a comprehensively talented roster quite like Los Angeles’ new favorite tenant. The Clippers scorch opponents with an Association-leading 112.1 points per 100 possessions. Only two teams shoot more accurately from the floor (47.4 percent) and distribute more effectively (24.6 APG)
Their Doc Rivers-inspired defense stifles the competition with the league’s best three-point percentage allowed (33.2). This underrated unit also generates the sixth-most steals.
As for the individual stalwarts, MVP-caliber power forward Blake Griffin is sixth in scoring (24.1) and total win shares (12.2), while upper-echelon floor general Chris Paul ranks first in assists (10.7) and steals (2.5). The game’s move improved center DeAndre Jordan is tops in field goal percentage (67.6), rebounds (13.6) and highlight-worthy dunk faces.
Combating this new LA powerhouse are the dual-threat Warriors.
The hated rivals to the North drained the second-most three-pointers this year, while smothering opponents with the third-best percentage allowed from distance (34.4). They also registered a top-seven mark in assists and came down with the second-highest total in defensive rebounds.
Opponents are scoring the fourth-fewest points per 100 possessions all told. That’s certainly not something many hardwood fans would expect from this traditionally offensive-minded club.
However, center Andrew Bogut, undoubtedly the Warriors’ defensive and rebounding heart and soul, will likely miss this series due to a broken rib. Responsibility will now fall squarely on the shoulders of backcourt members Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in total three-pointers made in 2013-2014.
These Pacific division enemies played to a 2-2, technical-foul-laden split during the regular season. Both squads took care of things on their home court and left each game battered, bloodied and bruised.
Will a similar competitive balance transfer to the playoffs, or will the Clippers simply out-talent Golden State?
Prediction
The Clippers are deep, well coached and thoroughly skilled at positions one through five. They are clearly the better team. But sometimes the mighty do indeed fall. Curry will out-floor-general Paul, Andre Iguodala will raise his offensive game to throwback heights and Draymond Green will serve as the X-factor on defense. Expect an epic hardwood battle for the ages—one where threes, hard fouls and last-second buzzer-beaters will rain down from the basketball heavens.
Golden State in 7 Games
No. 4 Houston Rockets versus No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers
Houston
Record: 54-28
PTS/G: 107.7 (2nd of 30) | Opp PTS/G: 103.1 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.0 (4th of 30) | Def Rtg: 106.3 (13th of 30)
Portland
Record: 54-28
PTS/G: 106.7 (4th of 30) | Opp PTS/G: 102.8 (22nd of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.5 (2nd of 30) | Def Rtg: 107.4 (16th of 30)
Season Series: HOU 3, POR 1
Preview
Another year, another four-versus-five matchup that pits two teams with identical records against each other.
But please don’t let that deter you from watching—this one has high-scoring extravaganza written all over it.
The Rockets rank top-four in both points scored per game and per 100 possessions. They are a curious, yet dominant inside-outside bunch that simultaneously sits unrivaled in three-pointers made and total free throws. They also shoot the fifth-best rate from the field at 47.2 percent.
Houston’s major defensive metrics are far from acceptable. But delve a little deeper, and one sees that this Dwight Howard-led contingent collects the third-most blocks and rebounds. It also forces the seventh-worst three-point percentage among 30 NBA squads.
That said, the Rockets will rely primarily on James Harden’s 25-point scoring prowess and Chandler Parsons diverse skill set in an offense-dominated series.
The Blazers, meanwhile, are an even more statistical-friendly menace on the scoring end of the court. They generate more assists, shoot a higher percentage from distance (37.2 percent) and consistently score more points. They also lead the Association in accuracy from the charity stripe (81.7 percent) and in total rebounds.
Put another way, whereas Houston is high volume, the Blazers are high precision.
Portland’s defense, while certainly not at the same level of proficiency, is not as bad as its 107.4 points allowed per 100 possessions would otherwise suggest. This group ranked top-11 in both field goal and three-point percentage allowed. It gave up a lot of made shots, just not always high-percentage ones.
The starters for Portland are arguably the best in the game. From electric point guard Damian Lillard, to 23-11 power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, to Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum and Robin Lopez in between, this unit is positively stellar at all five spots.
Kevin McHale’s Rockets took the series 3-1, but Terry Stotts’ regular-season ironmen nearly evened it during an overtime loss on March 9.
So, what ultimately decides this high-flying, leave-your-defense-at-home postseason series?
Prediction
No starting five scores more points than Portland’s (82.1) or Houston’s (80.2). And only four bench units score fewer than the Rockets’ (27.4), which includes the Blazers at No. 30 overall (24.7). As such, this first-round matchup comes down to the battle of stars. And the Rockets, with Harden and Howard, are just a little bigger than the still playoff-upstart Lillard and Aldridge for the Blazers.
Houston in 6 Games
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