Once the NBA season comes to an end and a champion has been crowned the free-agent period officially begins. This season sees some fairly significant names and talent hitting the open market. Aside from guys who have team options or player options for next season, the list of unrestricted free-agents is an impressive one.
The list of potential free-agents will grow significantly as the June 30th deadline approaches. Qualifying offers will be made and declined, player options will be exercised and also declined. What is for sure at this point is that the unrestricted free-agents have an open market to negotiate come season end.
The list of available players coming out of the Eastern Conference is of course highlighted by Dwight Howard who once again figures to cause a circus-like effect on the market. Once Howard makes his decision, other teams will jump into the market to secure their own UFA’s heading into next season.
We take a look at the cream of the crop among the group of soon-to-be UFA’s from the Eastern Conference and breakdown who is likely to bolt for a change of scenery and how will that affect their fantasy stock.
Dwight Howard
This list must start with Howard. He has already stated that his intentions are to speak with many teams and it is clear that he wants to be wooed. Thing for any interested team is that Howard will command a max-salaried contract because if you won’t give it to him someone else surely will. The Los Angeles Lakers remain the frontrunner to re-sign the big-man; however, don’t discount Houston and Dallas when it comes to making a significant push. I do believe that Howard re-ups with the Lakers...eventually. The guarantee of that fifth year on the contract is going to be tough to pass up. Granted Howard is young enough that he will sign another max-deal after this four or five year deal comes to an end so the extra year doesn’t hold as much weight as it might for an older player. From a fantasy perspective the Lakers are clearly the least beneficial option. So long as Kobe Bryant is in the fold, Howard will always be playing second-fiddle. Not to say that he can’t be very productive, but he will always be just short of reaching those monster season averages.
Jarrett Jack
Jack certainly picked a great year to have a great year. The Golden State Warriors playoff push highlighted Jack’s abilities and worth to a club. Unfortunately for the Warriors they have a salary-cap mess on their hands for next season as they currently sit at a whopping $74 million in committed monies. Now common sense would say that a Richard Jefferson-like contract could be amnestied off; however, it will take more than a one or two year deal at $5 million per to procure Jack’s services again. The smart money is on Jarrett Jack leaving the bay area as the 29-year old will be looking for a multi-year deal worth around $15-$18 million. There is no way that Jack replicates his numbers from this season elsewhere. The free-flowing offense that is Mark Jackson exists in few other places and Jack simply doesn’t produce as well in highly structured offensive sets.
Chris Paul
While Paul does hold a UFA status there seems to be little doubt that he will re-sign with the Los Angeles Clippers. The only way that Paul doesn’t secure himself a five year max-deal is if he chooses to take a discount. The Clippers can ill afford to lose their best player in Paul. The playoffs proved that the Clippers are still a piece or two away from being serious contenders as they lack the defensive toughness and offensive consistency to hang with the more polished clubs. Assuming Paul does stay in La La Land, I can’t imagine his fantasy numbers getting that much better than they were last season. A new head coach will instill a new offensive scheme, but Paul will still be the go-to guy for points and assists.
Maurice Williams
Williams was decent enough for the Utah Jazz this past season despite posting a career low scoring average on the year. In lieu of any other point guard option, the Jazz might be forced to at least offer Williams a new contract. Now the Jazz do have the 14th overall selection in the upcoming entry draft and they will likely choose to pick a guard, but will they then be ready to turn the offense over to a rookie? Unless the Jazz have their eyes on another free-agent point guard that they feel can be had at a lesser price than Williams, the safe bet is that Williams at least gets a contract offer. Regardless of where Williams ends up his fantasy value is limited. He is an aging point guard who is not an exceptional passer, he does not shoot a great percentage from the floor and his shot selection at times is downright shocking.
Tony Allen
One of the best bargains in basketball will be hitting the open market. Allen has played out the last year on contract for the bargain price of only $3.3 million. Take a minute any count how many teams would be happy to shell out $3.3 million to have a guy like Allen on their squad; I can think of about 32 teams that would be happy to pony up those dollars. There is no doubt that Allen is in-line for a raise and he will get it from someone. Allen could very well blot Memphis in pursuit of an NBA championship. The 31-year old veteran known that the end is nearing and he will likely want to go out with a ring on his finger. Allen’s fantasy value is limited; however, his on-court value is tremendous. Here is one guy whose contributions to a team cannot always be measured in the box scores. Because of that his fantasy value will remain negligible regardless of the contract situation.
Kevin Martin
There is little doubt that Martin will hit the open market as his current salary of nearly $13 million far exceeds his on-court worth. If the Oklahoma City Thunder were willing to pay a sixth-man $13 million a season they would have held on to James Harden instead. The Thunder will no doubt make a pitch to keep Martin, but I’m looking for Martin to be suiting up elsewhere come next season. I think that the Thunder will likely take a look at a guy like J.J. Redick for a fraction of the price. At this point in Martin’s career he is nothing more than an overpriced and underperforming Klay Thompson without any of the potential. Unless a team is willing to let Martin step in a be a starter and the primary offensive focal point, his fantasy worth is best as a sixth man.
Manu Ginobili
I truly believe that Ginobili is in the same predicament as Chris Paul. They are unrestricted free-agents in every sense of the word, but neither have any desire to leave their current teams. Ginobili will re-up with the San Antonio Spurs and especially after this deep playoff run there remains little doubt about his future with the club. Ginobili’s current contract pays him just over $14 million and puts him atop the Spurs payroll. I expect to see a three year deal on the table for around $11 million per season. If the Spurs are willing to be in that ballpark then Ginobili’s resigning is a no-brainer. Nice thought for Spurs fans is that with $41.8 million committed to next season’s salary cap; the addition of another $11 million for Ginobili still leaves plenty of room for another significant piece to be added.
Paul Millsap
The Utah Jazz have a decision to make this offseason as both Millsap and Al Jefferson are UFA’s. It would seem to make the most sense to keep Millsap who is likely to command less money than Jefferson on the open market. With Jefferson currently at $15 million and Millsap at only $8 million the choice seems pretty easy. If Utah were to commit to Millsap and in turn let Jefferson and Maurice Williams walk then their team payroll would be hovering around $35 million heading into the year. With that kind of payroll flexibility the Jazz could be significant players in the high-stakes world of UFA’s. From a fantasy perspective Millsap would benefit hugely from Jefferson’s departure as he could slid nicely into the primary low-block scoring option. Should the Jazz turn their cost-savings in a nice new point guard and a solid outside shooter then the middle lane could open wide up for Millsap to go to work.
J.J. Hickson
This young man is poised for a colossal pay raise. Hickson is hitting the open market at just the right time. Not only is he coming off a career year averaging a double-double throughout, but the market for serviceable centerman has never been better. Without a doubt Hickson will be leaving Portland as the Blazers won’t be able to afford him for the role that they use him in. The fantasy upside to Hickson moving would be his increase in minutes; however, he still has a limited offensive game and he doesn’t get much in the way of blocked shots. If DeAndre Jordan can get a fat new $10 million per year contract then Hickson should have no problems bumping into that range as well. Hickson is much more serviceable that Jordan and contributes more with have the flash and ego.
Al Jefferson
There seems to be little doubt that Jefferson’s days in Utah have come to an end. For starters his $15 million salary is simply too much money to commit to a guy when they have Enes Kanter under contract till the end of the 2014-15 season. The money needed to resign Jefferson could be put to better use in Utah by filling out the roster holes and upgrading at multiple positions. Jefferson should have no problem finding a home and should Dwight Howard turn down the Rockets, I do see this as being a very solid fit for Jefferson. He continues to be a solid fantasy option at the center position and given that he is only 28-years of age he should be able to continue this level of play through the life of another four or five year contract.