Once the NBA season comes to an end and a champion has been crowned the free-agent period officially begins. This season sees some fairly significant names and talent hitting the open market. Aside from guys who have team options or player options for next season, the list of unrestricted free-agents is an impressive one.
The list of potential free-agents will grow significantly as the June 30th deadline approaches. Qualifying offers will be made and declined, player options will be exercised and also declined. What is for sure at this point is that the unrestricted free-agents have an open market to negotiate come season end.
The list of available players coming out of the Eastern Conference represents an interesting mix of players and unlike the UFA list from the Western Conference, there will be some movement among this group. The most intriguing name on the list has to be Andrew Bynum who might just bolt from Philadelphia without having ever played a game for the 76ers.
We take a look at the cream of the crop among the group of soon-to-be UFA’s from the Eastern Conference and breakdown who is likely to bolt for a change of scenery and how will that affect their fantasy stock.
Devin Harris
Harris posted the worst statistical year in since 2004. He posted a nine-year low in points and assists per game; not exactly good timing considering he is entering his UFA year. Nonetheless Harris figures to garner some attention on the open market. Teams realize that he was slowed this past season by injury and that he is more likely to rebound than regress any further. The most favorable situation would be for Harris to resign with Atlanta; however, he would have to accept less than the $8 million he made last season. Currently the Hawks have just over $18 million committed in salaries for next season and that is only for seven players. Harris is likely to stay in Atlanta and he should benefit from having some new players around him. I like Harris to rebound and have a productive season as he should resort back to his 12 ppg, 5 apg averages.
Nate Robinson
Unrestricted free agency is coming at an opportune time for Robinson as he is coming off a successful season and a high-profile playoff appearance. He started eight games in the playoffs for Chicago and at times was their best player on the court. He played this last season out at a bargain rate of $1.1 million. The Bulls have seven UFA’s on their roster to concern themselves with, most of them comprising their second unit and the undisputed leader of the second unit is Robinson. If the Bulls don’t make efforts to keep him the fans will be disappointed and another team will gladly make a respectable offer. Based on Robinson’s recent success it would seem that a reserve type role is most beneficial for him. I think that he could absolutely flourish as a second-unit player for an uptempo team like the Houston Rockets or even the Oklahoma City Thunder. If Robinson chooses to leave Chicago and if he can land somewhere where the offense is fast-paced and free-flowing then his postseason success from 2013 could carry over to next year. I would personally love to see the diminutive guard suit up in Golden State next season and the Warriors could part ways with Jarrett Jack.
Beno Udrih
The Orlando Magic should be thankful that Udrih’s salary is coming off the books this season. At a salary cap hit of $7.8 million last season, Udrih was an overpaid bum. I can’t for one second fathom any sensible reason why the Magic would even try to renegotiate with him; they should simply part ways and move on. The Magic will rebuild through the draft this season and they figure to land a decent player with the second-overall selection. Add to the fact that the Magic will be up against the salary cap number and it makes absolutely no sense to consider keeping Udrih. I’ve never been a fantasy fan of Udrih and I don’t see myself ever coming around to him. He was once thought of as a crafty playmaker who could score in bunches and make the easy pass look much harder. His fantasy value is minimal and with a new team on the horizon he has dropped into the ranks of the inconsequential.
Jose Calderon
Calderon is a solid point guard in the NBA. He is a consummate professional who works and plays hard night in and night out. He still has the skill set to be a starting guard in the league and he deserves the chance to do so. Calderon provides the kind of veteran leadership that many teams lack. Having said all that it is unlikely that the Detroit Pistons make a serious enough offer to keep him around. The Piston have an enviable salary cap situation as they are finally ridding themselves of Corey Maggette and could potentially amnesty off Charlie Villanueva which could save them a combined $19 million-plus in salary. Add in the fact that their team nucleus of Brandon Knight, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond are all under contract for a minimum of two more years at rookie scale wages and this team is in a great position to succeed. If Calderon can find a team where he will be the starter and primary ball-handler then his fantasy stock should remain fairly constant. A great fit could be over in Dallas as they need a sure-handed ball handler to effectively run that offense.
Marco Belinelli
Belinelli turned his season around at just the right time. He went from being in coach Tom Thibodeau’s dog house early in the season to a clutch go-to playoff performer. It was clear that Belinelli’s confidence grew as the season progressed and so long as he can carry that confidence over to next season he will find a home somewhere. The Bulls would likely want to keep Bellinelli but they are likely unable to afford him. There will always be a market for consistent spot up shooters and Belinelli has marketed himself well as being just that. Statistically he isn’t great at this; however, he can come off the bench cold and start knocking down shots. Belinelli’s fantasy worth is tied to his minutes, be it in a reserve role or a spot-starter. If he can carve out 27-plus minutes a night with some starts sprinkled in then he will carry some value into next season.
J.J. Redick
The Milwaukee Bucks will likely be doing everything they can to keep Redick around, they might even be willing to sacrifice Brandon Jennings to ensure this happens. Redick and Monta Ellis actually formed a more productive duo than Jennings and Ellis did. Redick is coming off a season where he made $6 million and happened to average a career high in points per game. Redick will command at least $6 million per year on the open market and it would be foolish for Milwaukee to think they will get him for anything less than. The key for Redick to continue his fantasy success is that he must be on the court for significant minutes. Not coincidentally this past season that saw the increase in scoring also saw a big increase in minutes. If Redick can maintain a 28 - 30 minute per night average I look for him to continue his success.
Nick Young
Chances are that the Philadelphia 76ers will try and keep Young on their squad. He just finished out his contract that saw him earn $6 million in the final year and he was somewhat overpaid at that. The time for Young to reach his potential has come and gone and the player we are left with is maxed out at 10 ppg, 2 rpg and 1 apg; certainly not worthy of a long-term big money contract. Philadelphia definitely has the cap room to sign Young and they will likely look at doing just that. A three-year deal for around $20 million is about as high as anyone should consider. I can truthfully say that I have never, nor will I ever draft Nick Young to my fantasy squad. I don’t care for his attitude, swagger and lackadaisical approach to the game. He might serve a fantasy purpose somewhere and for someone but I can’t think of one.
Josh Smith
The speculation was boundless last season as the NBA trade deadline approached. Almost everyone had Smith being shipped out of Atlanta due to his expiring contract and his vocal self-evaluations that classified himself as a max-contract player. Leave it up to money to be the great motivator; but Smith had himself a pretty darn good season. I have to think that the reason for not trading Smith when they had the chance was because the Hawks are prepared to write a sufficiently large enough check to keep him around. This wouldn’t be an entirely poor decision given that he is the team’s best player and he is still only 27-years old. Smith remains one of the top small forwards in the league and he remains a popular selection among the fantasy options. A change in scenery could hurt the fantasy value as he would have to integrate himself into an offense that has other legitimate threats whereas in Atlanta he remains the top-dog.
David West
Amidst this current playoff run for the Indiana Pacers, West has publicly stated that he wishes to resign with the Pacers and that his intention is to stay in Indiana. The Pacers would probably like to see West commit to a two or three year deal for around $10-$12 million a season. This marriage seems to make the most sense, West wants to stay, he has been a very productive player and the Pacers have the salary cap room to accommodate this. West has shown that last season was an anomaly of sorts as he was hampered by injury throughout the season. This season he was healthy and he reverted back to his old form again as his averages jumped accordingly. West has once again asserted himself as one of the games premiere forwards and his fantasy value entering next season will certainly reflect that.
Andrew Bynum
Last but not least we have the curious case of Andrew Bynum. A top-ranked centerman in the Association who missed all of last season rehabbing knee surgery. Now Bynum faces his UFA status with no body of work to show for last season. This is definitely going to scare some potential buyers away. The big-money max-contract dollars may not come rolling in the way they otherwise would have. Bynum might just have to settle for a two or three year deal at a significantly discounted rate. I’m sincerely hoping that Bynum resigns with the Philadelphia 76ers as I see them as being an exciting team on the rise in the East. Bynum on the other hand may have different ideas about where he wants to play. One thing's for certain he would be better served to stay in the East as the general dearth of big men will limit his competition.