Team Name
Oklahoma City Thunder
Division
Northwest Division
Last Season
59-23 (1st in division)
Roster additions / losses
Additions
Anthony Morrow could be a key contributor this season for Oklahoma City after coming over from the New Orleans Pelicans. Aside from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder did not shoot well from beyond the arc. Morrow specializes in 3-point shooting, with a career average of 43% and shooting 46% last season. Morrow does not contribute much elsewhere, but his shooting off the bench could provide adequate spacing for Westbrook and Durant to attack off the dribble.
Losses
Thabo Sefolosha was a key contributor for the Thunder during these last few years of sustained success. He is an agile defender who always guarded the opposing teams’ best player, allowing Durant to save his energy for shouldering the scoring load. Sefolosha was not the best shooter, though, and departed for Atlanta. The Thunder will look to their younger players, such as Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones III to replace his minutes and production.
Derek Fisher was the veteran who provided more value off the court than on it. Fisher mentored Westbrook and the younger players, giving championship guidance that almost helped the Thunder win a championship if not for a series of ill-timed injuries. Fisher, now the head coach of the New York Knicks, was a savvy veteran who provided clutch baskets in key moments. The Thunder will have to replace his intangibles and wisdom, a more difficult task than some realize.
Key Success Factors
1. Weather the injury storm – Even before the season begins, the injury bug has hit the Thunder hard. Durant fractured his foot and is out until at least December, leaving OKC with a gaping hole offensively. Replacing last year’s MVP will be a tall task, but Russell Westbrook is relishing the opportunity to prove he can successfully be the primary option, albeit only for a few months. Compiling the problems are injuries to Morrow, Reggie Jackson, rookie Mitch McGarry and Jeremy Lamb. Those injuries are less severe, but the Thunder start their season behind the 8-ball nonetheless.
2. A Jeremy Lamb breakout – When the Thunder decided to trade James Harden two years ago, it looked like they had given up on what could have been the most formidable trio in the league for years to come. A key piece in that trade was Jeremy Lamb, and the Thunder need him now more than ever to have a breakout year. The third year wing will have to increase his scoring and defense to replace the departing Sefolosha and the injured Durant. Lamb did play better last season, but for the Thunder to weather the storm they will need a greatly improved Lamb to help lead the charge.
3. Dominate the paint – The Thunder drafted Mitch McGary for a reason, and that is because without depth at the forward spot last season they were exposed. When Serge Ibaka was hurt in the playoffs, the Spurs jumped on them for a 2-0 series lead that they eventually (barely) held on to after Ibaka returned. Joining McGary and Ibaka is second-year center Steven Adams, who won the starting job from Kendrick Perkins. Adams is a hard-nosed player who could also have a breakout season. Filling out the forward/center spots are Perry Jones III and Nick Collison, the perennially underrated, high-energy backup. Now that the depth is there, this part of the Thunder should be solidified.
Fantasy Impact
Studs
Kevin Durant: The injury certainly might scare some away, but if you can afford to wait for his production until December, you will certainly be rewarded. Durant has been arguably the #1 overall fantasy pick until this injury, as he consistently leads the league in scoring at around 30 points per game every season. He shoots with superb efficiency and contributes almost double-digit rebounds and 4-6 assists per game. The gaps in his game have been slowly but surely shrinking, and once he comes back from his injury he will show that yet again.
Russell Westbrook: Wesbrook was already a fantasy monster with Kevin Durant in the lineup, and now he has an even bigger role on this team. Expect Russ to shoot more, score more, and put up gaudy fantasy numbers for the first few months of the year. He does average a high number of turnovers and is not always very efficient, but he still pours in 20, 6, 7 and 2 steals every game. The interesting part of drafting Westbrook will be seeing how well he re-adjusts to playing alongside Durant, but that should not stop you from drafting him within the first two rounds.
Note: Out four-to-six weeks with a broken bone in his hand.
Duds
Kendrick Perkins – Finally, Kendrick Perkins is no longer a starting center in the NBA. His defense is superb, but for the last few years the question has consistently been surrounding coach Scotty Brooks’ reluctance to move Perkins out of the starting lineup. Now with Adams supplanting him, Perkins should no longer be on anyone’s fantasy radar. He simply does not do anything well enough to warrant consideration.
Sleeper
Jeremy Lamb – I already talked up Jeremy Lamb, but he is still going to go underdrafted and slip in too many drafts. The opportunity is there for the taking, and he will prove a worthy investment if he asserts himself into this offense. Last season he played in almost every game, and this year could be the year his production jumps. His role may be diminished once the team gets healthy, but by then he should have a large enough role carved out to sustain regular minutes.
2014 Season Predictions
MVP – Russell Westbrook
LVP – Sebastian Telfair
Finish – 1st seed in the West, NBA Champions
The injury to Durant certainly does not suggest that the Thunder will win the west, but I believe in Westbrook enough to carry them until December. When Durant gets back, the rest of the team will have gained enough experience and confidence from playing without him to be successful and provide the support that the Thunder have lacked over the last few years. Breakout seasons by some of the younger players will help, and Durant and Westbrook will lead OKC to its first ever NBA Championship.