The question of whether the Golden State Warriors’ ideal first-round playoff matchup would come against the New Orleans Pelicans or Oklahoma City Thunder is rather ludicrous on its face.
In what world would the Warriors prefer an Oklahoma City squad led by Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant? How would the stacked and battle-tested Thunder ever qualify as a better head-to-head than the postseason-inexperienced Pelicans? Even with MVP contender Anthony Davis, how could it not be New Orleans?
Pelicans or Thunder—is that even a serious question?
References to 40 Year Old Virgin aside, there’s merit to the latter—even after the Warriors’ 112-96 drubbing of the Pelicans Friday night.
Fortunately for Dubs Nation and sadly for the OKC faithful, it begins with the injury bug and ends with a turnover-prone point guard.
Darnell Mayberry of NewsOK.com reported Tuesday that Serge Ibaka would miss four-to-six weeks after undergoing surgery on his right knee. The arthroscopic procedure will keep the dominant power forward out for the remainder of the regular season.
“We’re optimistic he’ll make a full return and there are certainly no long-term concerns with regard to Serge,” said Thunder general manager Sam Presti. Ibaka himself recently argued that three-to-four weeks is a much more accurate timeline for his recovery.
Whatever the case, Ibaka had been averaging 14.3 points per game while leading the Thunder with 7.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks. That latter total ranked second in the NBA, with the folks at Basketball-Reference.com deeming his overall worth at 5.8 win shares.
Two of Ibaka’s backups, meanwhile, are also dealing with ailments of their own.
Enes Kanter is listed as day-to-day while Nick Collison will miss at least 10 days with varying degrees of sprained ankles. The former has been a revelation since his arrival in Oklahoma City with averages of 16.5 points, 10.4 rebounds and a 55.9 shooting percentage. Collison hasn’t been as impressive statistically, but the 11-year pro has served as an emotional mainstay off the bench since this franchise relocated to the Midwest.
While those aforementioned power forwards will return sooner rather than later, Ibaka’s timetable remains an approximation. And even if his recovery coincides with the opening round of the playoffs, he’ll need time to shake off the rust.
All that said, the far more significant injury-related development belongs to Durant.
Presti announced Friday that Durant has been “removed from basketball activities” due to persistent soreness in his right foot, via Royce Young of ESPN.com. Presti acknowledged his lack of progress since having surgery in late February and intimated that the team would shut him down for the rest of the regular season.
Notwithstanding his limited playing time, Durant ranked second on the Thunder with 25.4 points and a 40.3 shooting percentage from downtown. The reigning MVP added 6.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists in 27 games.
Like Ibaka, Durant will need time to acclimate to the Russ Westbrook show, if and when he returns for the playoffs. The same goes for OKC as a whole.
Call it a case of first-world problems, but that’s just what happens when a team’s point guard leads the NBA with 27.8 points, ranks fourth with 8.5 assists, averages 7.3 boards and has shattered the competition with nine triple-doubles.
Such a one-man wrecking crew who compiles seven of said nine triple-doubles in his last 12 games, including four in a row at one point, is an entity unto himself—and not always a good one.
Westbrook has used an NBA-high 38.3 percent of OKC’s plays while simultaneously committing more turnovers per game that any other player (4.4). That’s fairly problematic coming from the Thunder’s floor general, a position tasked with orchestrating the offense and distributing to teammates.
An unrivaled assist percentage of 47.8, while speaking to that latter duty and being laudable in its own right, doesn’t negate that league-worst turnover mark.
So despite his great assist ratio and second-leading player efficiency rating of 29.6, Westbrook is worth a comparatively low and 10th-ranked 8.9 win shares. Both his true shooting percentage and effective field goal rate also fall well out of the top 25.
For perspective, let’s invoke the name of another NBA floor general.
Stephen Curry ranks third with a PER of 27.4 and top six in assist percentage and in both of those shooting categories. He also commits far fewer turnovers (3.1) and has provided the second-most wins for his team by any one player (12.6).
That’s nearly four more than his positional counterpart in OKC.
And while we’re on the subject, Davis comes in at No. 4 with 24.6 points, No. 10 with 10.4 rebounds and No. 1 with 2.9 blocks. He also stands atop league rankings with an absurd PER of 31.2.
That phenomenal final metric derives from a fourth-leading 8.2 win shares on offense, a 15th-ranked 3.3 wins on defense and the fourth-best total of 11.5. Being tied with Curry for most win shares per 48 minutes doesn’t hurt either.
Ankle issues or not, those latter two sums exceed in importance Westbrook’s ultimate contributions on the court.
If you want stats and points, the No. 4 pick in 2008 is your guy. But if you want stats, points and wins, Davis—the No. 1 overall pick in 2012—is the man for the job.
Coming back full circle, then, the Warriors would prefer a Westbrook-led—and potentially Durant-and-Ibaka-less—Thunder. An injury-plagued Oklahoma City contingent makes for an entirely more favorable postseason matchup.
The Warriors won the best-of-four season series, and did so against every version of OKC. They won the first battle without either Westbrook or Durant on the floor, followed by one with just Westbrook finishing and the third with both of them on the court from start to finish.
OKC’s lone victory came when Durant poured in 36 points, Ibaka added 27 and Westbrook notched his first triple-double of the season. But seeing that the odds of this trio suiting up together in the playoffs are slim at best—at the very least in round one—the Dubs need not worry over such a lethal statistical explosion.
Sure, the Warriors are also 3-0 against the Pelicans, including with and without Davis on the court. The dominant power forward exploded for 30 points, 15 boards and three blocks back in early December and still the Warriors won by 25.
Even so, a Davis-powered and overachieving New Orleans squad with nothing to lose would pose as a much greater threat.
Much greater, to be sure, than a compromised Thunder contingent that will likely operate without two of its three best assets in the playoffs.
All team and player stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
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