When pondering the likelihood of two NBA teams making a surprise run at the Finals, any of those located near the eastern seaboard just don’t seem right for the contemplative exercise.
Let’s face it—either the defending champion Miami Heat or No. 1 seed Indiana Pacers will inevitably advance from the Eastern Conference.
Making a case for any team outside of the defensively indomitable, but offensively incapable Chicago Bulls is futile at best and grounds for journalistic purgatory at worst.
Even die-hard Toronto natives know they couldn’t possibly defend the championship prospects of their 35-27 Raptors. The same goes for those residing in the nation’s capital regarding their fifth-place Washington Wizards.
And mentioning the lucky-to-be-above-.500 Brooklyn Nets or combined 57-69 Charlotte Bobcats and Atlanta Hawks is straight-up punishable by law.
So, that predictably leaves us with a collection of Western Conference hopefuls vying for a surprise spot in the Finals.
FYI: The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder do not belong to said group. Neither do the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers. None of these teams would cause any bit of a legitimate shock among those who follow the Association.
For the sake of this exploration, let’s equate NBA-based theoretical musings with real possibilities in the actual playoff landscape. In other words, the somewhat crazy hypothetical ideas we conjure up in our heads are as sound as unbiased, objective predictions.
Here now are the two squads that could fit the bill of title-pursuing upstarts in the 2013-2014 postseason.
Portland Trail Blazers, 42-21, 5th in West
At first glance, any team that rocks a 21-spot in the plus-.500 department is no candidate for any such underdog classification.
Conversely, when that squad generally had a playoff one-and-done label attached to its name in the preseason, then, well, reaching the Finals would surely merit a few raised eyebrows among NBA prognosticators.
The Trail Blazers presently occupy fifth place in the West with a stunning 42-21 record.
They’re a relative juggernaut on offense with the league’s No. 2 ranking in points scored (107.7). And they rank even higher at first overall with an unrivaled offensive rating of 112.1 points per 100 possessions.
Damian Lillard is the high-scoring point guard who runs things for Portland on this end of the floor. His 20.8 PPG rates third at his position, while a per-game average of 5.6 assists leads the team.
The primary weapons on the receiving end of those dimes are power forward LaMarcus Aldridge and shooting guard Wesley Matthews.
Aldridge dominates down low with a seventh-overall 23.7 PPG, while Matthews is fourth in the Association with 156 made threes. His 40.1 shooting percent from downtown is just a notch below Lillard’s 40.2 as well.
Portland as a whole ranks sixth in three-point percentage (37.6), a highly notable mark indeed.
More underrated and/or surprising about this club is its proficiency at the line and on the glass. The Blazers are tops with both an 82.1 percent rate in the former category and 46.7 RPG in the latter.
Lillard is top-five from the charity stripe, while Aldridge (11.7 RPG) and center Robin Lopez (8.7 RPG) rank seventh and top-20, respectively, in rebounds. The ever-unglamorous Lopez handles all the dirty work in the paint and has contributed an unbelievable 7.1 win shares this season.
In fact, the starting five of Lillard (7.7), Matthews (6.8), Aldridge (6.7), Lopez and small forward Nicolas Batum (5.8) all provide above-average contributions in terms of total win shares. Batum, for his part, epitomizes the balanced output of this contingent with his 12.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 5.2 APG and 1.0 SPG.
The glaring Achilles heel of the Terry Stotts-coached Blazers is the weakness of their bench.
They have scored the fewest points in the NBA with a measly 24.3 per game. They’re also 21st in field-goal percentage (42.6) and 24th in rebounds (12.8).
Offseason additions Thomas Robinson, Dorell Wright, C.J. McCollum and Mo Williams were all thought of as quality pickups. Throw in Lopez in that mix, and Portland management certainly filled all backup positions (Lopez obviously elevated into the starting center).
The overall group, unfortunately, has been entirely subpar. A dead-last scoring average is proof enough.
Yet, come playoff time, every player from the second unit doesn’t see action on the hardwood. Teams generally employ a seven, or maybe eight-man rotation.
So, if the starters can maintain their remarkable streak of essentially never missing games (just five in total), the Blazers must only overcome their 24th-ranked scoring defense and postseason inexperience.
These are no doubt two very tall orders. But do take a gander at these encouraging stats.
The Blazers are a combined 3-3 against the Clippers and Thunder and 2-1 versus the West-leading Spurs. Based off current standings, they have proven they can beat both their first-round opponent (LAC) and presumptive foes in the next two (OKC, SAS).
Yes, the regular and postseason are two completely different animals.
But so are the Blazers—they’re much better than what analysts had earlier predicted, and good enough to make a surprise run at the NBA Finals.
Golden State Warriors, 40-24, 6th in West
Considering that this franchise hasn’t sniffed a Finals appearance in the last 40 or so seasons, it automatically earns a place in this discussion.
Not since the Al Attles-coached Warriors in 1974-1975 has Golden State reached the hallowed ground of the NBA playoffs.
It’s been a few years.
Now, can the Mark Jackson-led group of 2013-2014 match what the 30-point-scoring Rick Barry and Co. did?
If not a four-game sweep of the Washington Bullets, err, Wizards, then can this team at least place itself in prime position against an Eastern Conference opponent in this here 21st century?
The Warriors boast a 40-24 record and are sixth overall in the West. Their 20 road wins fall only below first-place San Antonio.
It’s also worth noting that last year’s conference semifinals club never stood 16 games above .500. Just some statistical food for thought.
In any case, like their neighbors in the Pacific Northwest, point man Stephen Curry is the undeniable heart and soul of the Warriors.
Curry is an upper-echelon floor general. He is second in total assists (529), including a top-five 8.7 APG, while also serving as the eighth-leading scorer with 23.5 PPG.
His top-10 player efficiency rating of 23.2—despite the physical taxing that comes from playing the ninth-most minutes per contest (36.8)—illustrates his all-around prowess.
Or, if that doesn’t suit your fancy, look no further than Curry’s 10.0 win shares. Only star point forward Kevin Love (12.3) and MVP front-runners LeBron James (12.1) and Kevin Durant (15.1) have more.
Furthermore, fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson provides the Warriors with another sharpshooter on the outside. He is plus-40 percent from distance (40.6) and ranks third on the team with 17.8 PPG.
Power forward David Lee is the overlooked double-double machine. The athletic and ambidextrous big man technically averages 18.7 PPG and 9.6 RPG. But his 31 DD’s in just 59 games should provide the necessary evidence of his dual productivity.
All that said, NBA fans would expect a top-10 scoring rate (103.5 PPG), eighth-highest three-point percentage (37.6) and any other stellar offensive production from Golden State.
What onlookers wouldn’t anticipate, however, is that the Jackson-coached Warriors value defense much more than their numbers on the other end of the floor.
This otherwise high-flying bunch is an incredible third overall with a defensive rating of 101.9 points per 100 possessions. It holds the opposition to the fourth-lowest rate from downtown (34.3 percent) and third-lowest field-goal percentage (43.4).
Golden State features defensive stalwarts across the board. No-nonsense Australian center Andrew Bogut is top-five in block (5.2) and rebound percentage (20.6), not to mention rocking the No. 9 slot with 3.5 win shares.
Lee (3.1) joins Curry and Bogut as the trio of Warriors with more than three win shares. Meanwhile, Thompson and do-everything small forward Andre Iguodala aren’t far behind with 2.7 each. Iguodala, to be sure, is a premier defender in every sense of the word—guarding the opposition’s best player and not having to show up in the box score while doing so.
Another salient fact lies in the Warriors’ top-three 45.5 RPG. Only the Blazers have a higher aggregate on the season.
Yet, unlike the boys up in Portland, the Warriors’ secondary contingent is now one of the elite groups in the league.
Steve Blake’s insertion at point guard has facilitated this rise. It first allowed Jordan Crawford to move to the two-guard, a position where he can score in bunches. Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green and Jermaine O’Neal can then fulfill all other scoring, rebounding and defensive responsibilities at a level commensurate with their comprehensive skill sets.
It is Blake’s high basketball IQ, floor vision and turnover-free play that helps put everyone in the right place and makes this corps special.
Okay, so what gives? Apart from their unfortunate historical track record, what would qualify the Warriors as a team making a surprise run toward the Finals?
Inconsistency—and a quite maddening variety at that.
Golden State, in various parts of this season, has won three, lost two, won four, lost three, won two, lost two, won 10, lost two, won four, lost one and won four. And it’s 0-2 against the miserable Bobcats.
Numbers overload aside, if the Warriors can overcome their all-too-often contradictory performances and harness their immense talent, they can indeed shock the NBA masses.
Time will tell if wins against potential playoff opponents in the Rockets (1-2), Thunder (1-2), Clippers (2-1) and Blazers (1-1) will translate in the postseason. The same goes on the other side of the equation regarding their 0-2 mark versus the Spurs (one game still to be played on April 2).
And if they somehow make it all the way, victories over the East-leading Pacers and title-defending Heat certainly bode well.
We can only wonder if those triumphs will also translate on the ultimate stage.
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