The NBA’s Western Conference supplied suspense right up to the last night of the regular season schedule. The Los Angeles Lakers and the Utah Jazz were both in the running for the final playoff spot and it was the Jazz who collapsed under the pressure to give the Lakers their playoff berth. Not only did the Lakers qualify sans Kobe Bryant they managed to slip into the seven spot and avoid a first-round matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs are viewed as being the biggest threats to dethrone the Miami Heat. Given the Spurs injury woes and aging veteran core this might be the best shot at another title with this group. The Spurs could pull out a Division Championship, but the road isn’t going to be easy as they would have to take on the winner of the Los Angeles Clipper - Memphis Grizzlies series. If the Clippers advance, they present some significant matchup issues and the Spurs title dreams could very well come to an end.
The Thunder are poised to make another run towards a Championship date with the Heat as it would seem as though we are headed to a rematch from last year. This is the matchup that most NBA fans would like to see as it showcases the two most dynamic players in the league. For the Thunder to advance through their road will first take them through Houston and then likely onto Denver; which is likely to present the biggest challenge for the Thunder squad.
Check back to eDraft for our Western Conference playoff preview as we break down each series, predict the winner and give some fantasy advice on players who are poised for a big series. As the playoffs progress so does our coverage as we take each round as it comes.
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Houston Rockets
In what could be the most exciting first-round matchup the Thunder are hoisting the Rockets in what should be an extremely high-scoring series. Albeit the series will likely be a short one, it will be entertaining nonetheless. Aside from the offseason swap that saw James Harden and Kevin Martin trade zip codes, this series has escalated into a matchup of teams that have no love lost for one another.
The regular season series went in the Thunder’s favor as their average margin of victory was 26 points; however, they did drop a game by three points. The loss itself was a bit of an anomaly as Kevin Durant registered a triple-double yet shot a putrid 4-13 from the field and scored a measly 16 points. I don’t expect any such horrific shooting nights out of Durant now as he and Russell Westbrook will be in top-form.
PREDICTION: The Thunder will take this series in five games as the Rockets manage to hold home-court in game three. The Thunder simply match up better at each position and they bring the focus and experience to make quick work of the Rockets in this series.
FANTASY IMPACT: It goes without saying that Durant, Westbrook and Harden are the three most talented players on the court and each will contribute mightily from a fantasy perspective. Jeremy Lin has been dominated by Westbrook during previous matchups and Omer Asik has been a non-factor against the more physical duo of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka. As boring as it is the best fantasy value in this series is Westbrook; he seems to raise his game against Lin and through the three regular season games he was an absolute fantasy stud.
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
For those who are thinking that the Lakers are poised to pull an upset I’m here to tell you that it just isn’t going to happen. There is a reason why the Lakers managed to only win 45 games on the year and that was with a relatively healthy Kobe Bryant. As much as the Laker fans want to believe that their team has a chance, they really don’t.
The Spurs are a well-oiled machine that is extremely well coached and who are very disciplined in the way they play. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker continue to run pick and rolls with great success and Manu Ginobili gives the second unit a boost coming off the bench. The Spurs have enough big-men to utilize the hack-a-Howard defense late in games and without the go-to scoring option the Lakers will struggle mightily late in games.
PREDICTION: As unpopular as it may sound, the Spurs will sweep this series. that’s right Laker fans, four straight losses to end your season. The Spurs gear their entire season towards the playoffs and they don’t screw around once it comes around. The Spurs are masters of the ball movement as they led the league in assists per game and they force opposing defenses to play straight-up man to man defense, which the Lakers are horrible at.
FANTASY IMPACT: The one player who stands out among his peers is Pau Gasol. Gasol returns from injury to lead the limping Lakers into the playoffs as his two triple-double games in the past week have propelled the purple and gold to the postseason. Duncan is a nice steady option; however, Gasol has really stepped up in the absence of Bryant and is the single best fantasy option for this series.
(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
Look out! This series could very well be explosive as it features the league’s top offensive team in Denver and an equally high-powered squad in Golden State. The Nuggets boast the top scoring offense while surrendering a near league high of 101 points per game. The Nuggets can score; however, they really can’t stop anyone from scoring either.
The Nuggets are limping a bit in this series as their second-leading scorer and starting small forward Danilo Gallinari is lost for the season with an ACL injury. To make matters worse the Nuggets top rebounder Kenneth Faried has an ankle injury that will likely force him to miss at least the first game in the series. Even with these injuries the Nuggets enter as the favorite to advance as their front-court players will dominate the series.
PREDICTION: For those of you who haven’t seen many Nuggets games this season, their success may seem like a smoke and mirror show. Let me assure you that their talent and on-court symmetry is very real. This team can flat out ball and they can make opposing teams look silly trying to keep up to their Mile High style of play. If the Warriors can’t get David Lee some help upfront, the Nuggets will dominate this series and will take it in six games.
FANTASY IMPACT: The Warriors style of play is very reminiscent of that seen during the NCAA March Madness. They rely heavily on the backcourt shooting of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack while the front-court players are talented enough to scrounge up the garbage buckets. Not to diminish Lee’s abilities, but he is far from being the go-to guy on the Warriors. If I had to pick just the one player, I would take Curry from the bunch as my top-fantasy selection for the series.
(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies
The Clippers are making a triumphant return to the playoffs in back-to-back season after a seven year postseason hiatus. The return to the postseason carries with it high expectations as the Clipper faithful are looking for a deep playoff run this year and a potential run to a Division title.
All of these postseason aspirations and pressures to perform come down to the play of Chris Paul as the diminutive point-guard is the undisputed leader for Clip-Nation. There are plenty of reasons for optimism surrounding this team as their starting-five are as good as anyone’s in the league and the strength of their bench is virtually unmatched. Unfortunately, the Clippers must not only beat a solid Memphis squad they must then get through the number one seeded Thunder to even earn the right to play for the Western Conference title.
PREDICTION: The Clippers are just too deep of a team to lose this best of seven game series. These two teams just met up on April 13 and the Grizzlies pulled out the win on the strength of Marc Gasol’s double-double game. Fact of the matter is that Gasol cannot be counted on to put up four games like that over a seven game series and in lieu of another legitimate threat the Grizzlies will drop this series in six games.
FANTASY IMPACT: As mentioned, so goes Chris Paul so goes the Clippers and if there is any hope of advancing past this round Paul needs to have himself a solid series. The complementary pieces for the Clippers are just that, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are not shot-creators and they are not capable of generating enough statistical output on their own. Paul is the workhorse here and he is the most viable fantasy option from both teams.