Division: Northwest Division
Last Season: 54-28 (2nd in division)
Roster additions / losses
Additions
Chris Kaman comes to Portland after spending a season in Los Angeles with the Lakers, albeit spending a significant portion of the season injured. Kaman has averaged double figures in points almost every season in his career, and will be a viable back-up center behind Robin Lopez. He can score off the bench and provide rebounding when healthy, and Portland took a calculated risk bringing him in, hoping he can offer quality minutes off the bench.
Steve Blake is back in the fold after 5 years in Los Angeles and Golden State, coming back to the place where he had 3 of his best statistical years. Blake is a sparkplug off the bench and will provide a veteran presence to mentor Damian Lillard as he ascends to stardom. Blake can shoot the three at a decent percentage, and does a lot of little things that do not show up on the stat sheet. Blake is a solid backup on a team looking for veteran depth.
Losses
Mo Williams is the only significant loss the Trail Blazers suffered this offseason. Williams was a quality backup in a role that Blake now takes over. Last season Williams played in almost every game, and his locker room presence may be missed. However it appears that Portland has prepared for his departure and should cope just fine.
Key Success Factors
1. Capitalize on Damian Lillard’s postseason – Lillard was the breakout star of the 2013-2014 NBA Playoffs. He torched the Houston Rockets and culminated his performance in that series by hitting the series-clinching three at the buzzer in game 6. He is ready for primetime and should put in an all-star season. After coming from Weber State with many doubters, Lillard has proven he is capable of being a star point guard in the NBA. He needs to improve his defense, as Tony Parker picked him apart in the second round, but Lillard is on the rise, and should lead the Trail Blazers once again.
2. Play better defense – The Trail Blazers relied on their offense last season, and that worked out well for them. However, at some point the defense has to step up. Portland was last in the league in turnovers forced and steals, and also gave up the third-most field goal attempts and fourth-most field goals made in the league. Offense works to a point, just ask the Houston Rockets, but in order to be successful in the playoffs the Trail Blazers’ defense has to improve greatly.
3. Continue to dominate behind the arc – On both sides of the ball last year, the Trail Blazers were dominant from three. The team shot the third most three-pointers and made the fourth-most, while ranking second best in both of those categories defensively. Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, Dorell Wright, and Lillard all can knock it down consistently, and LaMarcus Aldridge has said he plans to shoot more threes this season. This differential is vital to Portland’s success, and if they keep the same numbers as last year they will have another great season.
Fantasy Impact
Studs
LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge is a no-doubt first round pick. He has averaged 21 points each of the last three seasons, while also adding 8-9 rebounds, 2-3 assists and shooting at around 50%. If he does shoot more threes this year, like he claims, then his value only increases as he impacts more scoring categories. Aldridge plays a very particular game, focusing on mid-range jump shots and free throws; both of which he excels at. Another star season is on the way, so draft him as you would in the first round.
Damian Lillard – The third year guard looks to improve on his 20 points, 6 assists and 3 rebounds per game from last year, and there is no reason to suggest he won’t. Lillard is not afraid to shoot it from anywhere on the court, and with the ball in his hands as much as he has it the volume potential is there as well. He plays efficiently, and if he can improve his defensive statistics he will justify his high draft slot with ease.
Duds
Robin Lopez – Lopez is an above-average NBA player, but most of his contributions come on the defensive end or off the stat sheet. He is coming off of his best season yet, but the numbers still are not quite there. Lopez will also have his minutes monitored with the arrival of Kaman and an expected minutes boost to Meyers Leonard, so don’t expect too much from Lopez this season.
Sleeper
Wesley Matthews – Matthews is an interesting candidate here because he always seems to fly under the fantasy radar. He averages 2.5 threes per game and has scored at an increasing rate over the last three seasons. He does not offer much else in terms of fantasy statistics, but if you are looking for points and threes at a high percentage, Matthews is your guy.
2014 Season Predictions
MVP – Damian Lillard
LVP – Thomas Robinson
Finish – 3rd seed in the West, 2nd round exit in playoffs
The Trail Blazers look to make it past the second round where the Spurs eliminated them last season. However, I do not know if that is possible given the depth in the west and the lack of noticeable improvements in the offseason. Damian Lillard should play better, but the three point shooting might not hold up over the whole season once again. I expect this team to make the playoffs, but they might not make it as far as they hope.