A few weeks ago, we previewed the top 10 free agents heading into this year’s free agency period. We profiled the best of the best, but now it’s time for them to start making some decisions. Where these free agents sign will determine how the rest of free agency plays out, in an exciting cascade effect that causes shockwaves around the entire league. Now, it’s time to predict where everyone is going to end up, and which teams will end up winning the NBA’s “second season.”
(Again, it is widely assumed that LeBron James is returning to Cleveland, despite him opting out of his current deal. If this were to change, the Internet would explode and this site would cease to exist.)
Jimmy Butler
Current Team: Chicago Bulls
Predicted Team: Chicago Bulls
Jimmy Butler is one of the more interesting cases heading into free agency, yet his outcome is all but determined already. It was reported that Butler wanted to sign a one year deal with the Lakers, so he could re-sign under the new salary cap next year, but he is a restricted free agent and the Bulls blocked that move. They did so by offering a Max Qualifying Offer, which requires other teams to offer a 3-year deal minimum, which the Bulls would match. His situation is interesting because he evidently does not have a great relationship with Derrick Rose, and resents that the Bulls are “Rose’s team.” This could be an interesting situation going forward, but for now it appears that Butler is staying put in Chicago, who offered him a 5-year, $90 million contract.
Draymond Green
Current Team: Golden State Warriors
Predicted Team: Golden State Warriors
Much like Butler, it appears Green will be staying put. Despite the fact that he is a restricted free agent as well, he stated that he would not meet with any teams until he meets with the Warriors first. Golden State is sure to offer him a near-max level deal (if not a max deal), as they hope to hold on to a key cog in their championship run. Even if they can’t reach an agreement off the bat, the Warriors have publicly stated they will match any offer sheet he signs. It seems like all but a foregone conclusion that Green stays in the bay area, and that seems to be a prudent move given that they are still his best shot at another title.
LaMarcus Aldridge
Current Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Predicted Team: Los Angeles Lakers
LaMarcus Aldridge is a curious case of a plot thickening as time goes on. Throughout the season, all signs pointed to Aldridge staying in Portland. He showed “loyalty” to the team by playing through thumb injuries, and was public in his support of the team and the fans. However, as the postseason rolled around and the offseason approached, rumors emerged that he wasn’t happy and wanted out. Now, there seems to be no chance he returns to the Trail Blazers. Portland has revamped their roster already through trades and the draft, and is set to move on.
Aldridge’s most likely destinations are the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavericks. The Mavericks wouldn’t seem to make much sense given that they already have a stretch 4 who is ball-dominant in Dirk Nowitzki. The Spurs would be a great fit, but their cap situation doesn’t benefit Aldridge’s arrival. That leaves the Lakers, who have a gaping hole in the frontcourt and would be a big market with a strong desire to be great again. I think Aldridge ends up in purple and gold, spurring the Lakers’ resurgence in the west.
Kawhi Leonard
Current Team: San Antonio Spurs
Predicted Team: San Antonio Spurs
Part of the reason that Aldridge will likely end up anywhere but San Antonio is the deal that is coming Kawhi Leonard’s way. The Spurs will likely offer Leonard a Max Qualifying Offer as well to ensure that Leonard stays with them, and that puts a strain on their cap. Regardless, Leonard is the first priority for a Spurs team that will rely on him more going forward. Many of the Spurs are free agents, but it is pretty clear who is the highest priority to re-sign. Leonard will most definitely be in San Antonio, as he is slowly becoming the new face of the franchise.
DeAndre Jordan
Current Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Predicted Team: Dallas Mavericks
Jordan has an interesting decision to make this offseason. Does he stay in L.A. with one of the best point guards in the league in Chris Paul, or does he move to a different team for more money? As one of the best rebounders, defenders, and finishers in the league, Jordan has a fair market for himself. The Knicks are coveting him, as are the Lakers and Mavericks. With the possibility that Tyson Chandler departs from Dallas, expect the Mavs to come after Jordan hard.
When push comes to shove, I see DeAndre bolting for a new start in Dallas following the Clippers’ historic collapse in the playoffs. The Knicks simply don’t have as much to offer, and I like to think the idea of switching L.A. teams doesn’t suit him well. Throw in that he is from Texas and played at Texas A&M and you have a pretty ideal situation. He would be the muscle that Dirk has always needed (and had with Chandler) and would be an imposing force for another great head coach in Rick Carlisle.
Marc Gasol
Current Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Predicted Team: Memphis Grizzlies
The best center on the market, however, is Marc Gasol. The first-team all NBA big man has been a mainstay in Memphis for pretty much his entire career, and that doesn’t seem likely to change. Gasol is happy in Memphis and with the Grizzlies, and with good reason. They love him in the city and the Grizzlies are perennial contenders. Gasol has publicly stated that he is not meeting with anyone except Memphis, and unless that changes we’re going to see more of the same with him and the Grizzlies.
Dwyane Wade
Current Team: Miami Heat
Predicted Team: Miami Heat
Another curious case of this free agency period is Dwyane Wade. Wade is looking for a huge contract of at least three years, yet the Heat doesn’t seem interested. In response, D-Wade opted out and is now an unrestricted free agent. The problem for him is that there doesn’t seem to be a market of teams looking to offer him what he is looking for. It’s hard to blame him for trying, as he has remarkably never been the highest paid player on his team – that despite having won three championships and been the face of the franchise forever. Ultimately, the most likely conclusion is Wade backing off from his demands, or the Heat finding some type of creative agreement, and him returning to Miami. After all, it would be plain weird to see him in a different jersey, right?
Tim Duncan
Current Team: San Antonio Spurs
Predicted Team: San Antonio Spurs
Tim Duncan has to be the least attainable free agent pushing 40. Yes, Duncan is a free agent, but the only real options appear to be re-signing with the Spurs and retiring. With news that Duncan is heavily recruiting LaMarcus Aldridge, it appears that he will be back in the fold in San Antonio next season. He has been as productive as ever over the last few seasons, and seems to be defying his age. Much like Gasol in Memphis, Duncan is a mainstay in San Antonio, and all signs point to him staying put as well.
Kevin Love
Current Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Predicted Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Kevin Love’s ultimate destination has been a mystery for the last week or so. Some reports have come out that he was leaving Cleveland and going to Los Angeles, while others say he’s staying with the Cavaliers. Now, it appears he will be re-signing a long-term deal with the Cavs and LeBron James. It truly makes the most sense for him to stay in Cleveland, as playing with LeBron offers him the best shot at a title. Even without Love, and then without Kyrie Irving, Cleveland was two games from a championship. An exit would be surprising, yet not shocking (Boston and the Lakers are possible destinations), but for now it does appear Kevin Love will be staying in Cleveland.
Brook Lopez
Current Team: Brooklyn Nets
Predicted Team: Brooklyn Nets
Finally, continuing the trend of free agents not going anywhere is Brook Lopez. Lopez opted out of his contract, but just about everyone feels that he won’t leave the Nets. Many teams have even backed off from him, as they realize they are just wasting their time. Lopez will be looking for a max deal, which is a potentially risky move given his injury history. However, when healthy he is an offensively dominant, if not unorthodox, center, and the Nets would be even bigger fools not to try to re-sign him. The Nets will most likely re-sign him, and like most other members of this list, he will remain where he started as the 2015-16 season begins.