The NBA is a league where anything can happen. An eight seed can upset a one seed, a single player can carry a team to the title, and a team can turn into a dynasty that lasts decades. This year, the storylines have centered around two teams, and rightfully so.
The Golden State Warriors set an NBA record for the best start to a season and are currently on pace to set the single-season win total. The San Antonio Spurs also set an NBA record, for the best home start in NBA history. On Monday, these two titans of the league face off for the first time. Let’s take a look at who has the edge in the most highly-anticipated game of the season.
Home Dominance
San Antonio’s home dominance has been well-documented this year. They are 24-0 and don’t look like they’ll be losing there any time soon. However, this game is in Golden State, where the Warriors are sporting a 20-0 home record themselves. In fact, the Warriors have won 38 straight home games dating back to last year, and are virtually unstoppable at Oracle Arena.
Each team controls home court, and the Warriors feed off of their crowd’s energy. By contrast, the Spurs are only 14-6 on the road, although five of those losses were by 6 points or fewer. Given how well-coached San Antonio is, it won’t make much of a difference if they are at home or on the road, and there is no real advantage here.
Star Power
This matchup features no shortage of star power on either side. The Warriors have two of the most prolific shooters of this era in reigning MVP Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. They also have a rising star in Draymond Green who can play any position and thrive on both offense and defense. On the other side, the Spurs have a rising star of their own in former NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, as well as a rejuvenated Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
Unfortunately, Gregg Popovich pulled the ultimate Pop move and is benching Tim Duncan for this game because of “knee soreness” (Pop cares not for your narratives). So often, these pivotal matchups hinge on someone unexpectedly stepping up, but it’s the big guns that keep each team in the game for those plays to even happen. Don’t expect anything less than the best from these stars, unless Pop decides to bench everyone else, too.
Change of Pace
The Warriors and Spurs are far and away the best teams in the NFL, but they play with tremendously different styles. The Warriors thrive on chaos, and they love to run in transition to create mismatches. When they play small-ball, there’s no way to defend all five players, especially when they get up and down the court. The Spurs, however, play much more methodically and use their new pieces like LaMarcus Aldridge to control pace and tempo.
The Warriors play at the second fastest pace in the NBA; The Spurs play at the sixth slowest pace in the NBA. The Warriors have the best offensive efficiency rating in the league, while the Spurs are third. The Spurs have the best defensive efficiency rating in the league, while the Warriors are second (though the gap between 1 and 2 is the same as the gap between 2 and 22).
The Warriors have been historically dominant on offense, and the Spurs have been historically dominant on defense. This game might be determined by which pace the game is played at for larger stretches of the game, and we’ll get an idea early on to see which pace is going to win out.
The Edge
So, who wins on Monday night? The Warriors have an opportunity to exploit Tim Duncan’s absence, but that also might play to San Antonio’s advantage as they can immediately go to a smaller lineup to counteract the small-ball. Across the board there aren’t any particular strengths or weaknesses that stand out, so this seems like as even a matchup as we’re going to see.
One thing is for certain, this is going to be a chess match between each head coach, and we should be in for a great game. With how well these two teams are playing, it would be naïve to expect anything else.