With the exception of two teams, the page has turned on the 2015-16 season for most in the NBA. With just a handful of games to play, and only a few more potential free agents on display, GMs in front offices around the league are preparing their pitches to new faces and trying to lure then to new places. By July 1st, we’ll have some clarity on the free agency picture. For now, though, let’s try to figure out who belongs where, and where the top ten free agents will be playing basketball in 2016-17.
(For the sake of this article, we’re going to assume top free agents LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will be returning to their respective clubs, because come on.)
Harrison Barnes
Harrison Barnes has been somewhat an enigma from a scouting perspective. Is he a product of his environment in Golden State or is he truly a contributor that can be an impact player on a lesser team? Many teams will take a gamble on him and offer him sizeable money, and he has a chance to earn it in the NBA Finals. For my money, however, I think that being a restricted free agent means the Warriors will match whatever offer gets thrown his way. He’s valuable enough in that system that Golden State could do well to keep him in town.
Rajon Rondo
Last summer Rajon Rondo was a giant question mark, and many lambasted the Kings for taking a one-year gamble on him. Well, it appears that that gamble paid off to the tune of Rondo’s best season in a few years. Once considered a team killer, now Rondo looks like he’s found his groove again. It also looks like he’s found a running mate in DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento. Rondo might have earned himself a big contract, and my guess is that the Kings will be willing to pay up to lock him up.
Nicolas Batum
Batum was traded before the final year of his contract, a move that Charlotte was all too happy to make. He was the pivotal cog in their revamped offensive system, and they rode that to the tune of their most playoff wins in recent franchise history. There’s no question that the Hornets want him back. Will they be able to keep him if he gets a max deal offer? I don’t think that he will, but the Hornets might be willing to go there given the future salary cap rise and knowing just how important he is. For that reason, I think Batum stays put as well.
Dwight Howard
What are we to make of Dwight Howard now? He looks like he his former athleticism has left the building, but he still seems competent and effective enough to make an impact somewhere. If he opts out of his deal, and it looks like he might with Mike D’Antoni joining the mix and the constant rumors of clashes with James Harden, where would he land? I think he does opt out and finally plays for the team who has been linked with him for all of his free agency periods: the Atlanta Hawks. His hometown team could very well have an opening, and Dwight is certainly one for the sentimental moment.
Al Horford
The reason there might be an opening in Atlanta is because their starting center is also a free agent. The Hawks didn’t trade him at the deadline and were unable to lock him down for a long-term deal, and Horford could now be on the move. Horford has indicated his desire to stay, but will the Hawks meet his desired salary? I think he might find greener pastures elsewhere, where he can be more productive and get closer to a championship. He could head to Houston or Miami, but a dark horse here is the Boston Celtics. They rotate a variety of average frontcourt players, but a player of Horford’s caliber could vault them over the top.
Hassan Whiteside
Hassan Whiteside is a dark horse free agent who was virtually unknown before last year. Now, he’s certain to be paid handsomely this offseason. Whiteside is a defensive stud that also cleans the glass like nobody’s business. He is absolutely a difference maker, and it’s fair to imagine that his health might have changed the Heat vs. Raptors series. Whiteside is a young defensive anchor in the paint, something every great team needs. Throw in the uncertainty surrounding Chris Bosh’s future, and it seems likely that Miami will want to bring him back. Of course, money talks, but if there’s anyone who can pull off a steal of a free agency deal, it’s the guy running the show in Miami: Pat Riley.
Mike Conley
Mike Conley is without a doubt the most highly sought after point guard in this class. He is rumored to be a target for San Antonio, Indiana, Brooklyn, and New York, among others. It’s also possible that he remains in Memphis to try to regain what was a lost season with a bevy of injuries. A move to San Antonio is unlikely, and it seems that Conley would either stay in Memphis or be courted into the Big Apple. With two new coaches in the fold, either the Nets or Knicks have a decent chance, but the future looks brighter for the Knicks. I think Conley signs on and becomes their point guard to try to squeeze something out of Carmelo Anthony’s last few years of his prime.
DeMar DeRozan
DeMar DeRozan is an all-star who is coming off his best season in the NBA. He helped lead his team to the Eastern Conference Finals and was impressive against LeBron James in the process. It’s likely that he will opt out of his contract to receive a bigger deal, and his primary suitor remains the Toronto Raptors. It would be foolish for them not to offer him a max deal, but if they don’t there will certainly be other teams ready to pounce. For DeRozan, however, the most likely landing spot is probably still Toronto, where they’re finally building a team that can compete past the first round.
Andre Drummond
Free throw shooting issues aside, Andre Drummond had a phenomenal season this year. He was the backbone of a surprising playoff participant, and had a monster season statistically. In Detroit, everything runs through him, and that’s why they made the decision to let Greg Monroe walk last year. As a restricted free agent, Detroit can match any offer thrown his way. I think he’ll get max offers, but Detroit will match. They wouldn’t be dumb enough to let both of their potential cornerstone big men walk away in consecutive seasons. He is a major part of their future, and that’s likely where he’ll be.
Kevin Durant
Last, but certainly not least, is the most coveted free agent in this class: Kevin Durant. Durant has avoided talking about this subject all year, and is still “mums the word” on the free agency process. Rumor has it that he actually told former teammate Kendrick Perkins where he wanted to go, but made Perkins sign a confidentiality agreement. Whether that’s true or not is a different question, but the point is that no one really knows where he’s going. There is good reason to believe he could walk, giving up on the roller-coaster ride that has been his and Russell Westbrook’s partnership. Maybe he heads home to D.C. to reunite with old coach Scott Brooks? Maybe he heads to the Warriors to ruin the NBA for the next 5 years? For all of the speculation, I think the Thunder’s playoff run, which had them on the brink of the NBA Finals for three games, convinces him that his best chance at a championship is to stay put. The pieces are around him, and he has a chance to improve next year. If he feels the same way, then Kevin Durant is staying in Oklahoma City once again.