If I told you before the NBA Playoffs began that the 73-9 Golden State Warriors would be overpowered and outmatched by another Western Conference playoff team, would you have believed me? If so, would you have guessed that the team they would be playing is one other than the San Antonio Spurs?
After chopping down the Spurs in six games, the Oklahoma City Thunder came into Oakland in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals and did something that had not yet happened in the playoffs. The road team won a game at Oracle Arena. After getting swept by the Warriors in the regular season, the Thunder have suffocated the likes of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Curry has almost as many turnovers this series (17) as he has assists (18). He is shooting under 25 percent from three point range, which is a dagger to the Warriors' offense. The Thunder have made the Warriors play their game, which is much more physical and defensive than the Warriors are used to.
Curry is clearly not 100 percent and appears to be bothered by an elbow injury. He missed a number of layups in Game 4 which was arguably the most surprising sight of all. After avoiding a suspension, Green did not prove his worth on Tuesday night. In both games at Oklahoma City combined, Green shot 2-for-16. He is 2-for-12 from three point range in the series. Klay Thompson was in early foul trouble and hardly played in the second quarter of Game 4, but came back after halftime to score 19 points in the third quarter.
The primary problem for the Warriors has been defense on both ends of the floor. Billy Donovan has done a tremendous job defending the most potent offense in the NBA. After averaging an NBA-high 114.9 points-per-game during the regular season, the Warriors have been held to 104.8 points-per-game in the Western Conference Finals. The flexibility for Donovan to throw both big and small lineups on the floor to counter the Warriors' attack has made this Thunder team the best since its move to Oklahoma City. What the Warriors lack on defense was largely overlooked during their historic regular season and, now, it has come back to bite them. The Thunder quietly had the second-highest scoring offense in the NBA during the regular season. And the Warriors have been no match for Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
Durant is averaging 28 points and eight rebounds during the Western Conference Finals and Steve Kerr has put a number of guys on him from Thompson to Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes. Ultimately, Durant's skill and athletic build is too much for all of them. That is even more true for Westbrook, who is averaging 27 points, 11 assists and six rebounds in the series. Curry is incredibly outmatched and has no chance at guarding the Thunder point guard. Westbrook has had a double-double in every game this series, which includes times when he was defended by a better defender in Thompson. Westbrook recorded his first triple-double of the 2016 playoffs Tuesday night.
Next for the Warriors is the home court advantage they have relied so heavily on the past two seasons. Oracle Arena is guaranteed to be rocking on Thursday night, but how much weight does that hold with a Game 1 loss at home still fresh in the back of their minds.
Should they win Game 5, it will be back to Chesapeake Arena for Game 6. The Thunder have the most underrated home court advantage in the NBA and finished the regular season tied for the fourth-best home record in the league behind two of the best home teams in NBA history and the Cleveland Cavaliers. That crowd never sits during the playoffs and the Warriors have not won there since February 27. They were a Curry half court buzzer-beater away from double overtime and it took another blown lead in the fourth quarter by the Thunder to even get to that point.
But the Thunder have learned since then. They have not squandered a lead in the fourth quarter and have held sizable leads in each of the past two games against the Warriors. That is the biggest key for Durant and Westbrook. They are now seasoned veterans who have learned from their past.
If the best regular season team in NBA history is to go down in the Western Conference Finals, it will not be without a fight. But history is not on their side for this one. Teams who fall behind 3-1 in a playoff series are 9-223. The Warriors are 0-12 in franchise history. The defending champs may be dethroned in coming days.