With the NBA season being about a quarter of the way over already teams are taking stock of their current talent level versus that of the rest of the league. Teams are determining the hierarchy within the league and in doing so are self-evaluating their rosters for areas that need improving.
Luckily enough for general managers this time of year also brings about the start of the trade speculation. December NBA trade winds are a blowing as many big name players could find themselves shipped out of their current locals into new homes come the New Year. The players that are rumoured to be available are not just the nice to have kind of players, nope; these guys are difference makers.
Think for a second what a team like the Los Angeles Lakers might be like with Kevin Love instead of Pau Gasol or Philadelphia pulling a major coup and getting Anderson Varejao. These are trades and acquisitions that will alter the playoff landscape and ones that could ultimately crown a champion.
Some players may flourish with a new start somewhere else, while others might go from a starting role into that of a bench player for a team already stacked with talent looking to add to their depth for a playoff run. Not every trade is going to benefit fantasy general managers, so we are going to take a look at how the fantasy value of some potential trade targets will be affected.
We are focusing on six teams who figure to be active movers and shakers come trade time. These six teams have assets and expiring contracts to dangle as bait. Remember not all trades are good trades for your fantasy team. Be mindful of where your player is going and what kind of opportunities they will get in their new setting.
TORONTO RAPTORS:
First up we start in Toronto where the Raptors are obviously considered sellers at this point in the season. They are a woeful 8-19 and lack the cohesiveness and toughness to fight for a playoff spot. All this means that former first overall pick Andrea Bargnani could be on the way out of town. Bargnani has regressed in terms of fantasy production over the past two years and he has shown how fragile he can be in missing game action due to injury. Having had the misfortune of seeing Bargnani play regularly one thing is clear; he is incapable of carrying a team be it on the court or on your fantasy squad.
With a trade Bargnani’s fantasy value will decrease as he will be forced to adapt to a new offence and he will no longer be given the free reign that he has in Toronto. Bottom line is that Bargnani is too soft to get you any decent rebounding stats, too streaky to be a consistent scorer and too injury prone to be able to run him out for a stretch of games. A trade isn’t going to change anything for the better.
Another Raptor that is rumoured to be available is Jose Calderon. Calderon’s play of late might make it difficult to trade him; not due to poor production, rather the opposite. Trading Calderon will clearly signal to the fans that the season is done. At this point Calderon isn’t a bad fantasy option in some deeper leagues; however, this sudden burst of productivity is due to his insertion into the starting lineup, put him back in a reserve role and the fantasy value once again decreases.
The Raptors need to decide is Kyle Lowry ready to run the team or do they need Calderon. It would be silly to think that the Raptors aren’t looking to get something for Calderon given his expiring contract of $10 million coupled with the unlikelihood of re-signing him. Should a trade go down for Calderon his fantasy value is directly correlated to the minutes he will get in his new home. If he is going to be a starter somewhere then keep him on your roster.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS:
The Lakers are going to be looking at trade scenarios for their big Spaniard Pau Gasol. Problem for most is the $19 million dollar contract next season. Pau is in desperate need of a change and the Lakers seemingly would like to unload him. A natural fit would have him heading to New York in exchange for Amare Stoudemire. The salaries matchup; however, Amare has a third year on his contract at the paltry sum of $22 million and the contract is not insured meaning that should those problematic knees go again then the Lakers are on the hook for the contract. A team could always amnesty out the contract but it’s not an ideal situation.
Should Gasol get traded his fantasy value should rebound from the lows it has sunk to this season. On most teams Gasol would become an offensive focal point and would be able to showcase his skills in a more structured offense. I think Gasol does get moved from the Lakers and some of the rumoured trade partners being NY Knicks, Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves and even the Toronto Raptors would all be good fits.
SACRAMENTO KINGS
For Tyreke Evans the potential of a trade may simply come down to dollars and sense for the Sacramento Kings. Evans is in the final year of his rookie contract that is paying him $5.25 million with a team option for next season at $6.9 million. Evans meanwhile is in line for a descent raise and Sacramento might not be able to give it to him. Evans has struggled a little bit this year, probably due to injuries but also due to some of the inexperience on the team as a whole. Depending on the team, Evans could flourish as a versatile 6’6” point or shooting guard. I like the fantasy upside to Evans changing zip codes; his fantasy value would rise should he be traded.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
It would appear as though Kevin Love is none too happy about life in Minnesota. He has vented publicly about management, coaching, player selection and money; this usually paves the way out of town for most players. In Love’s case he is a superstar player who is under contract for at least another season before his opt-out clause kicks in. Maybe the Timberwolves will try to parlay his solid play into a trade now and try to get back a solid big man to fill the void. I have to think that the California kid who went to UCLA would love to come back to LA to suit up for the purple and gold.
From a fantasy perspective I think a trade would actually be detrimental to Love’s value. He enjoys great stats and fantasy production in a scenario that allows him to be the man. The Lakers certainly aren’t in a position to offer that and neither are a lot of teams. If Kevin Love were to be moved, I’d take a hard look at moving him from my fantasy team.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
When a uber-productive, hard-working, high energy guy who is under contract for at least another year at a modest salary plays for a bottom feeding team the trade rumours will circle like vultures over a carcass. It seems inevitable that the Cavaliers will trade Anderson Varejao and it seems equally likely that they will have many suitors looking to steal the Brazilian big man away.
Varejao has been one of the top fantasy performing forwards in the league this season as he currently leads the league in rebounding.
If I’m the Cleveland Cavaliers I’m looking for young talent and a draft pick in exchange for Varejao. One team who could fit these criteria would be the Houston Rockets; they have some solid young players, payroll flexibility and are a playoff bubble team. I’m just thinking aloud; but if the Rockets weren’t too concerned about giving up a lottery protected first rounder then a deal could probably get done. When a deal for Varejao goes down I think his fantasy value will remain status quo. Teams will see the success and the means used to achieve the success and they shouldn’t try to turn Varejao into a player that he is not; which is a post up player who plays with his back to the hoop.
UTAH JAZZ
This team should be active come trade deadline as they have the most salary cap flexibility heading into next season. This is due in large part to Paul Milsap, Al Jefferson and Marvin Williams combined $30 million in expiring contracts coming off the books. Now each of these players has value and can be very solid contributors to a team looking for a late season rental. Utah is going to be compelled to trade one or all of them as it is highly unlikely that any of them will resign with Utah.
The most appealing player in the bunch might be Al Jefferson who is currently averaging a double-double thus far in the season. Now a new team might have the inside track on getting Jefferson to sign a new contract or Jefferson might bolt to one of his preferred destinations. The Toronto Raptors are in desperate need of some toughness and leadership, mind you they would have to part with some young talent to get him but if Jefferson would agree to a contract extension with the Raps it would be a sound pickup.
I think any trade involving Jefferson would boast his fantasy value. The trade itself might not have much impact on the stats but the attention and elevation in his profile would likely increase the value as fantasy general managers might get a better look at the big man.