The NBA’s Western Conference is chalk full of title contenders—and those aspiring to be—with the 2013-2014 All-Star Game fast approaching.
The Oklahoma City Thunder occupy first place with a stellar 41-12 record. Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks round out the playoff standings at No. 8. Their 31-21 mark would shockingly qualify for third in the retched East. So disturbing.
In between are the perennially contending San Antonio Spurs, loaded Los Angeles Clippers and upstart Phoenix Suns. Don’t forget the Cinderella-story Portland Trailblazers, revitalized Houston Rockets and lights-out shooting, but surprisingly defensive-minded Golden State Warriors.
Projecting the ninth-place Memphis Grizzlies (27-23) as a postseason qualifier would not fall on deaf ears either. They’re just one season removed from making the Conference Finals.
We unfortunately cannot say the same for the historically bad 18-33 Los Angeles Lakers.
Only twice in this franchise’s illustrious, 16-championship history has it not secured 30 wins in any one season (1957-1958, 1959-1960). And that occurred in a place where there actually are lakes.
But we digress. Let’s stick to the bona fide postseason-quality clubs and those at least masquerading as such.
Here now are the Western contenders and pretenders heading into All-Star weekend.
Note: Three teams fall somewhere in between the above categories due to a number of contingencies and extenuating circumstances. A separate category exists for them.
Pretenders
8. Dallas Mavericks, 31-22 (8th in West)
It’s been a total renaissance year for the Dallas Mavericks’ star player.
A similar resurgence, however, has not applied to the Mavericks as a whole.
Dirk Nowitzki currently averages 21.9 points per game, good for 12th-most in the league. He also has collected 6.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists on 49.1 percent shooting in his 16th NBA season.
The 12-time All Star rocks a 40.7 percentage from three-point range, 91.1 from the line and a 24.5 player efficiency rating—his best mark since 2007-2008.
He has remarkably contributed to seven of Dallas’ 31 victories. That win-share total ranks ninth overall in the Association.
The Mavericks are 7-3 over their past 10 games. They’re an even better 20-11 when point man Monta Ellis, shooting guard Jose Calderon, small forward Shawn Marion, center Samuel Dalembert and Nowitzki hit the floor as the starting five.
Yet, aside from Calderon’s top-six three-point shooting (44.5 percent) and Nowitzki’s collective exploits, Dallas is merely a good regular-season team. And such teams are destined for one-and-done performances in the playoffs.
Nowitzki and Co. are no exception.
A top-seven offense (104.6 PPG) matched with a bottom-seven defense (102.1 PPG) does not translate into a contending-worthy status. Neither does a 5-11 record against the NBA’s best (Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat and the top-eight teams out West).
This is just not your championship Mavericks from 2010-2011.
7. Phoenix Suns, 30-21, (7th in West)
Wait, Phoenix is nine games above .500?
The 2013-2014 Suns have indeed shocked the basketball world with their present seventh-place standing and overall performance this season.
They have nine wins over upper-echelon squads from both conferences and are 19-13 against a loaded West. Rookie head coach and former Suns fan favorite Jeff Hornacek has helped inspire a top-five scoring offense (105.1 PPG).
Point guard Goran Dragic, for his part, has made up for the loss of backcourt stalwart Eric Bledsoe. His 20.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.4 SPG on 51.1 percent shooting and 41.0 from distance qualify as statistical leadership and pure All-Star “snubbery.”
Sadly, first-year coaches and inspirational stories don’t quite equate to contending qualifications.
Teams that are mired in 25-57 irrelevancy do not instantly transform into a certifiable contender one season later—no matter the player, culture or coaching-staff overhaul.
The Suns are a solid young team behind Bledsoe, the Morris twins and C Miles Plumlee. They can both shoot and defend the three. Dragic and Channing Frye are also in place as the necessary veteran leaders.
When Phoenix can go 3-0 instead of 0-3 against the likes of Oklahoma City and San Antonio, it will enter the conversation among legitimate title-pursuers.
So for now, a berth in the postseason remains an achievement worth celebrating.
6. Houston Rockets, 35-17 (5th in West)
It’s safe to say that the lovely city of Houston will not appear on my future vacation itinerary anytime soon.
Let’s run down a few positive notes before getting to why this team holds such a lowly standing.
The Rockets feature a thoroughly impressive 35-17 mark a few days away from the All-Star break. They are a perfect 2-0 over the conference-champion Spurs and have suffocated Golden State by a combined score of 221-195 over two games.
Houston’s backcourt is fully equipped with the game-changing James Harden (23.6 PPG, 6.3 WS), defensively proficient Patrick Beverley (1.4 SPG) and sufficiently dynamic Jeremy Lin off the bench (13.2 PPG, 4.5 APG).
Dwight Howard clearly owns the interior with his board-dominating 12.4 RPG. He also brings an eighth-best 3.1 defensive win shares to the table. Howard’s backup Terrence Jones rocks a highly effective 18.5 player efficiency rating. An 11.9 PPG and 7.3 RPG fuel his 4.4 win shares on the season.
Chandler Parsons, Omri Casspi and Aaron Brooks, for their part, infuse sharp-shooting production from the outside.
And three-time champion and Hall of Fame player Kevin McHale leads from the sidelines.
But for all their lauded strengths, the Rockets’ two all-star players have fallen a bit short when it mattered most in the past.
Harden suffered through a 2-for-20 streak from the floor when the Heat took control of Games 3 and 4 in their 2011-2012 Finals win over the Thunder. Howard, despite his individual stat dominance, did not push the 2008-2009 Magic over the top against the Lakers.
Outside of the 2003-2004 Detroit Pistons, NBA teams win titles when their top players perform their best on the biggest stage. Harden and Howard—until they prove otherwise—have not.
To Be Determined
5. Los Angeles Clippers, 36-18 (4th in West)
Here is what we know about LA’s new resident basketball power.
The Clippers have champion leadership on their side with Doc Rivers—perhaps the greatest coach in the Association.
Pound for pound, they are as strong as any team when it comes to roster talent. From NBA assist leader Chris Paul (11.1 APG), to the evolved all-star Blake Griffin (24.1 PER, 8.6 WS), and even to the refined DeAndre Jordan (10.0 PPG, top-rated 14.1 RPG), this squad boasts a full arsenal.
A healthy balance between a third-ranked points per 100 possessions (111.0) and top-eight standing in that same category on defense (104.4) sure doesn’t hurt either.
The Clippers have also proven that they can with and without CP3 leading the way (23-12 vs. 13-6).
So what gives? Why don’t they belong in the contending echelon?
Because they’re still the Clippers.
One need only look at their all-time win-loss record to remain skeptical (1,339-2,193, .379 win percentage). A team that has never even tasted a Finals appearance surely deserves a rather tenuous label.
Ergo, To Be Determined…
4. Golden State Warriors, 31-21 (6th in West)
If this analytical musing was predicated on the starting-five, then Golden State is an undeniable championship-contender.
Alas, it also incorporates the bench contingent. It is more than a theoretical breakdown, and inconsistent tendencies play a considerable role.
The Warriors are a dominant 23-10 with all five starters patrolling the hardwood.
Floor general and all-star PG Stephen Curry is a statistical anomaly. He leads the NBA in total assists and three-point field goals. Backcourt mate Klay Thompson matches Curry’s 40.9 3P percentage and ranks No. 2 in overall shots made from downtown.
David Lee, meanwhile, rounds out the Association’s top 20 with 5.9 win shares. The eternally underrated power forward effectively averages an 18-10 double-double (18.8 PPG, 9.7 RPG officially), not to mention 2.5 WS on defense.
Furthermore, Andre Iguodala is a phenomenal defensive small forward who helps drive the Warriors’ third-ranked scoring defense (101.6 PPG per 100 possessions). He can also run point and drain an occasional three.
And Andrew Bogut locks down the paint with a top-five rebound (21.1) and block percentage (5.2). He also boasts the league’s second-most accurate rate from the floor (63.6 FG percentage).
This starting corps can beat any team at any time (see: 116-115 vs. Thunder, 123-114 @ Heat).
Regrettably, the starters’ excellence is matched only by the utter futility of the reserves.
The Warriors bench contributes the second-fewest points (24.1) on the worst field-goal percentage (39.1) in the NBA. Draymond Green’s gritty toughness and Harrison Barnes high-ceiling potential are there. But so is the erratic point man Jordan Crawford and the remaining group’s general ineffectiveness.
When the second unit comes in, the collective Golden State faithful switches to an episode of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit for emotional support. Yes—it’s that bad.
We’ll leave you with this Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde-revealing tidbit: the Warriors destroyed the defending-champion Heat on their home court, but are winless against the 22-29 Charlotte Bobcats.
Your guess is as good as ours.
3. Portland Trail Blazers, 36-16 (3rd in West)
If weren’t for a few missed opportunities, this borderline selection might have very well boasted the top spot in these rankings (see: 12/28/13 vs. Heat, 2/7/14 at Pacers, 2/11/14 vs. Thunder).
The Trail Blazers have ascended to the 36-win plateau behind the NBA’s unmatched scoring offense. Their 108.0 PPG is the product of an astoundingly healthy starting unit that has not missed a single game all season.
Yes, PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge and C Robin Lopez have started all 52 games—together.
Nearly as extraordinary as Portland’s collective health is each player’s unique skill set.
Lillard orchestrates the floor with a team-leading 5.7 APG, but has also totaled the third-most three-pointers (145). Call the 20-point-scoring all-star a poor-man’s, yet equally clutch Steph Curry.
Matthews averages fewer points than Lillard (16.9 PPG), but is an even deadlier shooter from distance. He ranks 14th overall with a 41.7 3P percentage.
Batum does it all from the small forward position. He can knock down shots (45.4 FG percentage), swallow up rebounds (6.5 RPG) and dish out a few assists (5.4 APG). He also leads the Trail Blazers with 52 steals.
Aldridge, another Portland all-star, is the all-out force at power forward. He stands alone among his teammates in points (24.1), rebounds (11.5), player efficiency rating (22.9) and win shares (6.4).
Lastly, Lopez is the unknown glue (outside of Oregon) that holds this squad together. He handles the dirty work inside to the tune of 8.3 RPG and 1.5 BPG. He also supplies a modest 10.6 PPG in a quasi poor-man’s Andrew Bogut fashion.
In the spirit of Trail Blazers-to-Warriors comparisons, Portland is the only team that boasts a more significant discrepancy between starters’ and bench production.
The former for Portland ranks No. 1 in the Association with 85.2 PPG, while the later occupies the categorical cellar with 22.8 PPG. Golden State is No. 3 and No. 29, respectively.
Only by virtue of their composite 36-16 record do the Trail Blazers maintain an overall advantage over the Warriors.
Having lost at least once to all relevant playoff teams discussed in this piece keeps them locked in “TBD” status (10-10 overall).
Then again, Portland will have additional shots at a contender promotion against the Mavericks (one), Suns (one), Warriors (two), Rockets (one), Clippers (two), Heat (one) and a fully functioning Spurs contingent (two).
And so it begins among the contending elite…
Contenders
2. San Antonio Spurs, 37-15 (2nd in West)
Fortunately, only the first of these final two entries is so curiously problematic.
At first glance, San Antonio rightfully holds a spot in the superior class with 37 wins and a second-place standing in the West.
That includes the NBA’s most balanced splits via an 18-8 record at home and 19-7 mark on the road. One also can’t forget a top-seven offense (109.4 PPG) meshed with a top-five defense (102.8) per 100 possessions.
But look a little deeper and some disturbing metrics reveal themselves.
The Spurs have rarely been healthy during this 2013-2014 campaign. They have used an unreal 22 different starting lineups. Remember, Portland has featured a grand total of one.
PG Tony Parker, SG Danny Green, SF Kawhi Leonard, PF Tim Duncan and C Tiago Splitter have collectively missed 48 games. This lineup has only been operational for 14 of a possible 52 contests.
On one hand, that five-some compiled a solid 10-4 record. Yet, its lone victory over a playoff-quality opponent came against Golden State all the way back in early November. And Duncan and Company tallied an eye-cringing 76 points—for the entire game.
Compounding matters are losses to the Clippers, Trail Blazers, Thunder and Pacers. The first three serve as obstacles to a Finals appearance for San Antonio, while East-leading Indiana stands in the way of head coach Gregg Popovic and Duncan’s fifth NBA championship.
Popovic’s top corps has not logged enough chemistry-fostering playing time and has been entirely disappointing when those unified minutes have actually materialized.
Okay, so for what possible reason would the Spurs qualify as title contenders?
For starters, Leonard (finger) and Argentinean legend Manu Ginobili (hamstring) will return immediately following the All-Star break. The other key players are already back.
But above all else, the Spurs care about one thing and one thing only—the playoffs.
Regular season games are of little consequence to Duncan, Ginobili and Parker. They have a combined 104 years on planet earth—it’s Larry O-Brien Trophy or bust for this trio.
Popovic will ensure that his Spurs receive the necessary game-time action so that April showers bring championship flowers come NBA Finals.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder, 42-12 (1st in West)
Note: Let’s relegate to the armchair psychiatrists any such theoretical or impossible-to-verify hypotheses regarding the inner psyches of two basketball superstars.
We’ll indeed keep this concluding analysis to a palatable minimum—it’s some pretty basic stuff.
The Thunder own an unparalleled 14-4 mark against Miami, Indiana and the remaining seven playoff teams in the Western Conference. They have not lost to the Mavericks, Suns, Rockets or Spurs. And they have conquered Houston and San Antonio more than once.
The same goes for the Warriors and Trail Blazers.
Moreover, Oklahoma City consistently exerts its will over the opposition with help from anyone donning the Thunder colors.
This team is 17-2 with its preferred lineup of Russell Westbrook, SG Thabo Sefolosha, SF Kevin Durant, PF Serge Ibaka and C Kendrick Perkins. It also holds a nearly imperceptible mark of 21-4 with Westbrook versus 20-8 without him.
Heck, even a seriously depleted Thunder sans Westbrook and Durant took out the Boston Celtics earlier this year.
Whether Durant is Batman and Westbrook is Robin, or Westbrook is Superman and Durant is—
All that personality labeling and “psycho-babble this”…“psycho-babble that” jargon need not apply.
Again, here is the uncomplicated truth.
Durant stands preeminent with 31.2 points per game and a 31.1 player efficiency rating and 13.5 total win shares. It’s really not even a fair fight between KD and the man in second place for all three categories.
He alone makes the Thunder a viable contender.
Westbrook, meanwhile, is the NBA’s fastest and most scintillating player at the point guard position. He compiled 21.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 7.0 APG, 1.8 SPG and a 21.6 PER during the 25 games in which he was healthy.
He, too, helped lead Oklahoma City to victory.
So through it all, the Thunder have beaten the best—with and without their best—on the floor.
Just ask the Pacers (+Westbrook), Heat (-Westbrook) and Spurs (+/-Westbrook)—the only teams outside of Oklahoma City with a real shot at winning the title in 2013-2014.
But as far as the West is concerned, OKC reigns supreme.
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