Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s season was shot down before it even began, and much of that was due to the injury to Kevin Durant. Durant fractured his foot in preseason, and though he did return, his foot ultimately shut down his year after playing only 27 games. Injuries to other key contributors didn’t help either, as the Thunder ended up missing the playoffs by one game, a far cry from the championship I (optimistically) predicted before the year started.
This offseason, Durant looks to be recovered, and has even been participating in Team USA’s training camp. All indications are that he’ll be ready to go when the season starts, but given the nature of foot injuries, and his superstar status, one has to wonder what would happen if Durant suffers a setback. Let’s take a look at what might happen if Durant doesn’t return to 100% this season.
On the Court
Kevin Durant is one of the best players in the world. Perhaps that fact was lost on many NBA fans because of his injury and the emergence of players like MVP Stephen Curry, runner-up James Harden, and his own teammate Russell Westbrook. Another year without Durant would mean that Westbrook could put up another season of MVP-like numbers, but that the overall team would suffer. To be fair to the rest of the Thunder, they still had a shot at the playoffs, but injuries to Westbrook and Serge Ibaka throughout the season handicapped the team too much.
Right now, ESPN.com predicts a 55-win season next year, given the full health of Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka. Excluding his rookie year and last season’s injury plagued campaign, Durant’s average Wins Over Replacement has been about 15 per season for his career. That means that without him in the lineup for the whole season pushes the Thunder from a top seed in the west to outside the playoffs once again.
While it’s unlikely he misses the whole year, this just goes to show just how much of an impact KD has on this team. A quick look at the depth behind him doesn’t exactly inspire confidence either, but they could probably piece together some wins in his absence to make up part of that 15 wins per season added. Simply put, a healthy Kevin Durant pushes this team to the top of the western conference. After all, that’s what superstars do.
Off the Court
Aside from having a subpar season, an injured Kevin Durant would pose a major complication in the free agency market next summer. Durant is set to become an unrestricted free agent, and teams around the league have already been preparing for his potential exit from Oklahoma City for years now. The Knicks have their sights set on him, but the clear frontrunner to steal him away from OKC is Washington, as Durant would return to his hometown Washington D.C. The Wizards have been clearing cap space and signing wing players to shorter deals, and the rise of the cap next year means that they can offer him even more money.
In the event that Durant is injured again this season, there is a chance that his value takes a hit. A player coming off back-to-back foot injuries is labeled an injury risk (just ask Brook Lopez) and teams will potentially be more hesitant to take on such a big salary. However, this isn’t just anyone we’re talking about, it’s a former MVP and one of the best players of his generation.
Durant at his best is almost unstoppable offensively, and he had a clear foothold as the second-best player behind LeBron James before being injured. A failure to get back to 100% next season probably wouldn’t do much to hinder that. Teams already know what they could potentially get, and more teams would be willing to take that risk than not. For that reason, if Kevin Durant can not get back to full strength this season, the impact would be far greater on the court than off it.