Before I begin to make America angry, I will put in this disclaimer to provide what I’m about to say its proper context: this is not an indictment of the men’s national team, but rather shining the spotlight on the weaknesses in this team that have emerged over the past few games. Now…
The United States Men’s Basketball Team will not win the 2014 FIBA World Cup. That is not to say that I do not want them to win, but based on their performances thus far, that outcome does not seem likely. Here are three reasons why team USA is not the favorite anymore:
1. The interior play is simply not good enough to win it all. Going into this tournament, we knew that the big boys inside were this team’s weakness, and the likes of Anthony Davis, Kenneth Faried, and DeMarcus Cousins have not done enough to dispel that notion. Sure, Davis and Faried have played phenomenally on offense and helping with the offensive glass. On defense, though, they have often seemed overmatched by marginal NBA talent. Against Ukraine, former Phoenix Suns forward Slava Kravstov repeatedly burned Anthony Davis and 15 points on 5/7 shooting. Meanwhile, center Ihor Zaytsev finished with 11 points.
Against Turkey, a team that played the USA even until the end of the third quarter, Turkey’s frontcourt combined for 42 points, more than half of the team’s total for the game. Turkey might have another chance at the United States in the knockout stages, and they will be fully aware that Omer Asik, Oguz Savas, and company were successful against the American frontcourt. Meanwhile, none of those guys come even remotely close to the level of quality that Spain has on the interior. Pau Gasol and Marc Gasol are beasts down low, and then they have the ability to bring Serge Ibaka off the bench. Spain knows they have an advantage there, and if the USA and Spain eventually do meet in the gold medal game, the USA will be in trouble.
The Americans brought aboard guys like Andre Drummond, Mason Plumlee and Cousins with the Gasol brothers in mind, one would assume. However Drummond and Plumlee have seen very limited action and it is difficult to believe they can come in and give meaningful contributions without having played much leading up to that game. Davis and Faried are simply not big enough to grind for 40 minutes on the block, and it is easy to see the US being forced into double teams leaving shooters on the perimeter wide open.
2. That being said, they might be open anyway if team USA’s perimeter defense continues to play the way it has. James Harden, for all his offensive traits, simply is not a good defender. Several times against Turkey he was left watching his man drift open for open shots.
Though the United States has averaged double digit steals throughout the group stage, they cannot reasonably expect to force as many turnovers against higher quality opponents with better guard play. At the same time, in the reasonably competitive games, American opponents have averaged 36% from beyond the arc, with several of those opportunities looking like the one in the video above.
That quality of perimeter defense will not cut it against potential opponents in the knockout stage. After Mexico, the US could face Slovenia with standout guard Goran Dragic, followed by either Australia (leading the tournament at 52% shooting from beyond the arc) or Lithuania (second in the tournament at 41%) before the finals. Kyrie Irving suffered a hard fall against Ukraine and is expected to play, but his, Stephen Curry and Derrick Rose’s defense all have to improve.
The guards cannot keep gambling for steals and leaving the frontcourt exposed. Remember, in international play there is one less foul permitted than in the NBA, so if the guards let their man by, it exposes Davis, Faried and the rest of the gang to foul trouble which the USA simply cannot afford against top quality opponents. Simply put, without improvement this defense is not good enough to win gold.
3. This team does not get out of the gate fast enough. In the game against Turkey, team USA was down 40-35 at halftime. Against New Zealand, they led by only seven after a tightly contested first quarter. Against the Dominican Republic, they led by only three. Against the Ukraine, they trailed by five after one. In every game, the USA has needed to rely on a huge run at some point in the game before being able to pull away.
Once again, playing like this puts the team in a potentially dangerous position against a team of better quality. Especially in this style of play, with shortened periods, getting off to a fast start is of paramount importance. The talent gap between the USA and its opponents has been large enough for it not to be an issue yet, but you could see the team was rattled a little bit against Turkey going into the half.
On foreign soil, especially in Spain, the European teams have the crowd advantage. We simply have not seen this team get tested enough to know how they respond to adversity late in the game. Hopefully they answer some of those questions in the couple of games. Even better, hopefully they will not have to at all in this tournament. If they do, however, it is not out of the question to see team USA get rattled by a hot shooting Lithuanian or Australian and a noisy crowd behind the underdogs. Team USA needs to show fortitude in times of crisis in order to prove they are really capable of winning this tournament.
The talent is still high enough for this team to pull off a championship run. That is not the question here. The real question is whether or not the gap is large enough between team USA and team Spain for an off game to still be enough for a victory. Simply put, that answer is no. Spain has nine players with NBA experience on their roster, and two more who were drafted but have not played in the NBA. This team is loaded with talent as well, and they have played together long enough to have chemistry that team USA cannot match. Unless team USA makes some marked improvements, it is extremely difficult to envision them coming home with the gold medal. I hope I’m wrong, but this team needs to show something before I’ll believe it.
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