10. Eddie Lacy, Running Back, Green Bay Packers
The San Francisco 49ers yielded the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last season. Replacing Isaac Sopoaga with Ian Williams only promises to improve those numbers. In addition, Green Bay averaged just 74.5 rushing yards in two games against the 49ers last season. It seems that head coach Mike McCarthy turns away from the run far too early in games, and that could be cause for alarm for Lacy owners this upcoming week. While the rookie is likely a solid FLEX option over the course of the season, he's a prime candidate to bench Sunday.
Projected Statistics: 12 rushes, 36 yards and zero touchdowns.
9. Marshawn Lynch, Running Back, Seattle Seahawks
The additions of Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short to the Carolina Panthers defensive line promises to upgrade what was a weak run defense last season. Despite ranking 21st against fantasy running backs last season, it's easy to expect a much better performance from this unit in 2013, especially with the emergence of Luke Kuechly as one of the best young inside linebackers in the game. Seattle will also look to connect through the air against what has to be considered a weak Panthers' secondary. For these reasons, I am not expecting top-10 fantasy production from Lynch. That being said, he's still a solid RB2 option.
Projected Statistics: 20 rushes, 80 yards and zero touchdowns
8. Andy Dalton, Quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals
This is not a favorable fantasy matchup for Dalton. While Cincinnati has added a ton of weapons on offense for the young quarterback, expect the Chicago Bears to perform well against the Bengals' passing game. Chicago yielded the fourth-lowest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season and has its secondary back for another season. If you are relying on Dalton as a QB1 throughout the season, there is a good chance you have a solid QB2. If so, this might be the week to utilize your backup.
Projected Statistics: 21/35, 235 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
7. Steve Smith, Wide Receiver, Carolina Panthers
There is absolutely no way Smith goes up against Richard Sherman and comes away with an above-average fantasy performance Week 1. It's just not going to happen. Even if Smith is able to beat Sherman, which won't happen, the Seattle Seahawks could easily push Earl Thomas into over-the-top coverage on that side of the field. In addition, Seattle yielded the least amount of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season. That's not going to change in 2013.
6. Arian Foster, Running Back, Houston Texans
The fact that Foster didn't play this preseason really isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things. That being said, we can expect Houston to take it easy with its Pro Bowl running back, especially with Ben Tate healthy and ready to contribute. For all their issues, the San Diego Chargers have a decent run defense. They ranked in the top 10 of the NFL in fantasy points against from the running back position in 2013. While Foster will be relied on as a top-tier RB1 option based on hit ADP, don't expect that type of production in Week 1. At the very least, slide in another running back as your FLEX player to make up for what promises to be a pedestrian performance here.
Projected Statistics: 16 rushes, 67 yards and zero touchdowns
5. Philip Rivers, Quarterback, San Diego Chargers
If you are relying on Rivers as your QB1 throughout the 2013 season, you are already in trouble. If you are in a two-QB league and plan on starting him Monday night, it's probably time to rethink your strategy. Rivers is going to put up non-existant fantasy numbers in Week 1 against a top-notch Houston Texans defense. While Houston did rank in the middle of the pack against fantasy quarterbacks in 2012, the indicators are here for major struggles from Rivers. After all, he wasn't even a decent QB2 option in 2012 and is going to be throwing to a lot of uknown pass catchers behind a bad offensive line.
Projected Statistics: 23/39, 254 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions
4. Eli Manning, Quarterback, New York Giants
Much like Rivers, Manning simply cannot be relied on to be a decent QB1 option in 2013. His lack of consistancy last season has to be cause for alarm for those of you relying on him to rebound from a substandard 2012 campaign. Take into account an improved defensive scheme in Dallas and it makes sense that the Cowboys are going to step up and take away the likes of Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks on the outside, especially with Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne 100 percent healthy and ready to go. I wouldn't even expect top-16 production from Manning Sunday night.
Projected Statistics: 24/40, 265 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions
3. Jermichael Finley, Tight End, Green Bay Packers
San Francisco yielded the ninth-lowest fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season. Considering that it went up against the likes of Aaron Hernandez, Jimmy Graham, Brandon Pettigrew, Martellus Bennett, Tony Gonzalez, Kyle Rudolph and Finley himself, that's mighty impressive. While Dashon Goldson has moved on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Eric Reid is more than capable of going up against Finley, especially with NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis in coverage underneath. Don't expect much from Finley come Sunday.
Projected Statistics: Three receptions, 38 yards and zero touchdowns.
2. Chris Johnson, Running Back, Tennessee Titans
Once again, the Pittsburgh Steelers possess the best overall defense in the NFL last season. They also yielded the fifth-lowest amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs. The likes of LeSean McCoy, Alfred Morris, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice (twice), Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray and Johnson himself were all held to under 100 yards against Pittsburgh in 2012.
While Tennessee has vastly improved its running blocking with the additions of guards Chance Warmack and Andy Levitre as well as tight end Delanie Walker, there is no reason to believe that Johnson will live up to his billing as an under-the-radar top-six running back in Week 1. He will have a strong season when all is said and done, but fantasy owners will have to wait until after this weekend to get bang for their buck.
Projected Statistics: 18 rushes, 50 yards and zero touchdowns.
1. Cam Newton, Quarterback, Carolina Panthers
It's hard to consider benching a top-five fantasy quarterback on opening weekend, but that's exactly what I am recommending those who own Newton to do on Sunday. Simply put, no quarterback is going to put up QB1 production against the Seattle Seahawks this season. While someone like Colin Kaepernick might approach that level against one of the best defenses in the NFL, Newton just doesn't match up well against Seattle's secondary.
Seattle yielded an average of just 12.24 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, which enabled it to finish second in that category. Newton completed just 12-of-29 passes for 141 yards and zero total touchdowns in Carolina's only game against the Seahawks last season. Expect a somewhat similar stat line here.
QB2 options such as: Alex Smith, Michael Vick, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Schaub and Josh Freeman might be better options than Newton if you have one of them on your roster.
Projected Statistics: 17/33, 185 yards, zero touchdowns, one interceptions, six rushes, 40 yards and one touchdown.