As the NFL offseason winds down, free agents are deciding if they’ll be finding new homes or are staying put, and any trades that were going to take place after the draft have been signed off on.
Now, as mini camps start up, players who have had to search for new homes will be finding out about their roles with their new teams, and fantasy owners should be paying close attention to how position battles and workouts involving these players are working out.
Many of these free agents won’t necessarily improve, their numbers will stay about the same, it will just be for a different teams. Take for example Anquan Boldin and Mike Wallace. Both these players have new homes, but their numbers will likely stay the same, or maybe even fall off after signing with new teams in the offseason.
However, there is no shortage of players whose numbers will go up after a change of scenery and uniform.
Note: this piece only focuses on fantasy players, so individual defensive players are not included in this list.
10. Jared Cook - TE, St. Louis Rams
The only major tight end to make a move in the offseason, Cook is ready to make a name for himself in St. Louis after spending the first four years of his career with the Tennessee Titans. In those four years, the Titans’ offense failed to every really get going, having to go through several different starting quaterbacks and a head coaching change.
Now, Cook will be the starting tight end for the Rams, who will be looking to find a new target in the passing game after the loss of Danny Amendola to the New England Patriots. Cook has only scored eight touchdowns in his career, but he has recorded 759 and 523 yards during his two most recent seasons, respectively. He’s also shown he can get down the field coming off of blocks, since he averages over 13 yards per catch for his career. Sam Bradford could use an end zone target, and Cook may just fall into that role this year.
9. Josh Cribbs - WR, Oakland Raiders
Usually, when a wide receiver turns 30, that means his best years are behind him. This may not be the case for Cribbs, who signed with the Raiders after failing to reach an agreement with the Cleveland Browns. Cribbs spent eight years with the Browns, primarily as a kick returner, but often appearing in the team’s Wildcat package. Cribbs has a lot of work to do if he wants to become more involved in the passing game in Oakland, considering the Raiders have 11 other receivers on their roster, but he has the speed and athleticism to stand out.
When the Browns decided to use Cribbs as a traditional receiver he was effective, especially in 2011 when he was targeted 67 times, and caught 41 passes for 518 yards and four touchdowns. He also gives Oakland the option to be more creative with different packages as Cribbs can run and even throw, so it’s likely Cribbs will be on the field in more ways than one in Oakland.
8. Rashard Mendenhall - RB, Arizona Cardinals
Think back to 2010, when Mendenhall was one of the first three or four running backs off the board in many fantasy drafts. Now, Mendenhall was quickly forgotten about during the offseason after only running for 182 yards in 2012. But now that the 25-year-old is with the Cardinals, who don’t have much else on offense except Larry Fitzgerald, it’s very likely he returns to his 2010 form.
Mendenhall ran for back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2009 and 2010, and has 29 career touchdowns. However, his production went way down during the 2012 season after returning from a torn ACL at the end of the 2011 season. Mendenhall was deactivated due to inconsistent play, but if he can stay healthy Arizona might just be the perfect fit for him.
7. Davone Bess - WR, Cleveland Browns
While a lot of Bess’s success this season depends upon how well Brandon Weeden (or whoever ends up playing quarterback for the Browns), being traded from the Miami Dolphins to Cleveland increases his fantasy value. Bess now is a starting receiver on a Cleveland team that has one of the worst receiving corps in the league, and will likely line up next to Josh Gordon on the other side. Bess’s stock will be even higher during the first two weeks of the season when Gordon is serving a two-game suspension for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.
Bess had never missed a game in his career until last year, and was targeted over 100 times during three seasons with the Dolphins. If the Browns can get a consistent quarterback going, Bess will be either the No. 1 or 2 option in Cleveland, and could surpass the numbers he put up in Miami.
6. Chris Ivory - RB, New York Jets
One of the quieter signings this offseason, Ivory signed with the Jets after spending the first three seasons of his career with the New Orleans Saints. Yes, the Jets are one of the worst franchises in pro football, but Ivory is going to get far more touches than he ever did in New Orleans. The former starting back in New York, Shonn Greene, is now with the Tennessee Titans, leaving Joe McKnight as the only other player who could compete with Ivory for the starting job.
Ivory is sure to win that starting job, and the Jets have always been a run-first team. Ivory showed in his rookie year in 2010 that if he gets touches he can produce, running for 716 yards and five touchdowns on 137 attempts. Since then, he never got very many touches with the Saints, but he’ll be carrying the ball a lot more with the Jets.
5. Reggie Bush - RB, Detroit Lions
Coming off a very disappointing 2012 season, finishing 4-12, the Detroit Lions are looking to get their offense back in form, which starts with establishing a running game. Jahvid Best can’t stay healthy and Mikel Leshoure has been generally disappointing, leaving fans to assume that Bush should be the starter in Detroit heading into Week 1. While Bush can run outside the tackles fairly well, he is also a great pass catcher and has 2,730 career receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. Bush is coming off of the two best years of his career with the Miami Dolphins, running for 1,086 and 986 yards in 2011 and 2012, respectively. If the Lions make incorporating the rushing game a priority, Bush will take some pressure off of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson to carry the offense. Having Johnson in the lineup will also take defenders off of Bush, since they’ll be afraid to leave Johnson open down the field. Expect Bush to have similar numbers to his Miami years.
4. Alex Smith - QB, Kansas City Chiefs
One of the few trades that took place in the NFL prior to draft day,Smith was moved from the San Francisco 49ers over to the Chiefs. Smith is the presumed starter for the Chiefs and new head coach Andy Reid, since his only competitors are Ricky Stanzi, Tyler Bray and Chase Daniel. Smith is never going to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback, but Smith was really starting to come strong last season before he was replaced in the lineup by Colin Kaepernick.
Smith has some respectable pieces around him, including running back Jamaal Charles and wide receiver Dwayne Bowe. Before he was benched, Smith was completing 70 percent of his passes and threw 13 touchdowns in 10 games. He was also on pace to finish with the highest passer rating in his career. It will be interesting to see how Andy Reid works out in Kansas City, but Smith could be a borderline fantasy starter in some leagues by the end of the season.
3. Percy Harvin - WR, Seattle Seahawks
After complaint after complaint, Harvin was finally moved out of Minnesota this offseason to the Seahawks, who are coming off of one of their best seasons in recent memory. Harvin, who has had a history of missing games, only appeared in nine last season, but still caught 62 passes for 677 yards and three touchdowns. He’ll also likely be getting more targets in Seattle than he was in Minnesota, since there won’t be an Adrian Peterson to run the ball on every single down in Seattle.
Harvin has never broke then 1,000-yard receiving mark, but he will be happier playing for the Seahawks now, and Russell Wilson is a much better quarterback to play with if you’re a receiver than Christian Ponder.
2. Danny Amendola - WR, New England Patriots
Amendola has always been an underrated fantasy wide receiver, but he certainly won’t go unnoticed now that he’s in New England. After the loss of Wes Welker, Amendola will probably take Welker’s place on the Patriots. Plus, if a receiver had to choose between Sam Bradford and Tom Brady, who wouldn’t choose Brady? The Patriots are one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL, and Amendola will get more targets than he ever did in St. Louis. He has never scored more than three touchdowns in a season, but that number will definitely go up with Brady throwing to him. Health is definitely a concern for Amendola, but if he’s in the lineup, Brady will no doubt get the ball to him.
1. Steven Jackson - RB, Atlanta Falcons
Most of the time, a 30-year-old running back is a fantasy nightmare, but Jackson might just be the back of your dreams in this draft. Most fantasy owners will look past the aging Jackson, but he should be a starting fantasy back for at least two more years after he signed with the Falcons in the offseason. Jackson has not shown traditional aging patterns that a running back would show, rushing for more than 1,000 yards in eight-straight seasons. While his yards may not go up on the Falcons, his touchdowns are certainly going to. He has only scored double-digit touchdowns in only one year in his career, and the Falcons will give him way more red zone touches than the St. Louis Rams did.
Even Michael Turner, who was terrible last season, scored 10 touchdowns, most of which game inside the 10-yard line. Atlanta’s offensive line is much better than the Rams’, which will translate to more touchdowns for Jackson, and maybe even more yards. His age will probably keep him out of the top five in most pre-draft rankings for running backs, but he could certainly find himself there by the end of the season.