With all the compelling playoff races and division races coming to a close with the regular season there are a few more races that are providing some interesting debates. One story that is sure to generate some heated debate is the MVP race.
The last five MVP awards have all been handed out to quarterbacks; two each for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and the last one went to Aaron Rodgers in 2011; the last running back to win the award was LaDainian Tomlinson back in 2006. It seems that the Associated Press prefers voting for quarterbacks over running backs and if you are a wide receiver you can pretty much forget about any real consideration.
There are many players worthy of being included in the discussion this season. Robert Griffin III,Matt Ryan,Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers could all make a case; however, the competition is very steep this season. In my mind there are three candidates that have separated themselves from the rest. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson have shown themselves to be the best of class this season.
Peyton Manning is the sentimental choice in this race as he returned to action this season after missing all of last season and he seemingly didn’t miss a beat even with his new team. The quest for a fifth MVP award is not out of the realm of possibilities here. Manning has had himself a MVP worthy season from a statistical standpoint. To consider and assess Manning properly we must forget about the comeback story and focus on this season’s performance.
The performance this year has been remarkable. Manning has thrown for over 4000 yards, 30 touchdowns while limiting the interceptions, maintaining a quarterback rating over 100 and guiding the Broncos to an AFC West title with a 13-3 record (assuming they beat Kansas City this weekend).
Here is how this season stacks up against the last two seasons where Manning won the MVP. This season statistically is better than both the 2008 and 2009 seasons as he threw for more touchdowns and less interceptions.
2008: 4002 yards, 27 TD, 12 INT
2009: 4500 yards, 33 TD, 16 INT
2012: 4645 yards, 36TD, 12 INT*
*projected
Now we must look at the team’s performance and take this into consideration. The Broncos were a playoff team the year before as Tim Tebow managed to get them in. The Broncos were a good team before Manning got there; the defense was young, aggressive and coming together as a unit are were showing signs of dominance. The offense was different under Tebow; however, the tools for success were there. Manning came to the Broncos and immediately made them Super Bowl contenders, but let’s not forget it’s not like he turned around the franchise and rescued them from the dredges of the NFL.
Tom Brady is also having himself a MVP calibre season over in New England as he has once again guided the Patriots to an AFC East division title. Brady’s stats this season are impressive, but like Manning’s they aren’t mind-blowing. The passing yards are huge, but the passing yards from every quarterback are up and the 4000 yard mark is no longer the benchmark. The touchdown and interception totals are nice but they aren’t spectacular.
Here is how this season stacks up against the MVP season’s Brady have had. You can see that 2007 was a phenomenal year with 50 touchdowns and 2010 saw only four interceptions compared to 36 touchdowns. This season the passing yards are comparable, the touchdowns are on the low side and the interceptions while still impressive are higher than the other two seasons.
2007: 4806 yards, 50 TD, 8INT
2010: 3900 yards, 36 TD, 4 INT,
2012: 4846 yards, 34 TD, 9 INT*
*projected
In my opinion the third horse in this MVP race is Adrian Peterson. Peterson is the top rushing back on the year and is threatening to crack the 2000 yard rushing mark, he leads the league in rushing over his closest competitor by an astounding 400 + yards and he has 11 TD’s. On the season Peterson is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and has a ridiculous 23 carries that went for 20+ yards; the next closest back with 20+ yard runs is CJ Spiller with only 12. What is equally impressive is the fact that Peterson is the only back in the league to average more than 100 yards per game.
The last two running backs to win MVP honors were LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander in back to back years. In 2005 Shaun Alexander set a new record for touchdowns in a season, amassed close to 1900 yards and led the Seattle Seahawks to a NFC Conference Championship. The following year saw LaDainlian Tomlinson break Alexander’s touchdown record and lead the San Diego Chargers to the best record in the NFL at 14-2.
This season for Adrian Peterson saw him threaten Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record and has him threatening to break through the 2000 rushing yard barrier. As a result of this tremendous season the Minnesota Vikings are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot which is a remarkable feat considering they are coming off a 3-13 season. The roster was hardly overhauled after that dismal season and no new offensive threats were installed into the system. The primary focus of the offense has been Adrian Peterson and without him the Vikings wouldn’t even be in playoff consideration.
Here is how this season for Peterson stacks up against the MVP seasons from Alexander and Tomlinson. The primary difference upon comparison is the touchdowns as both Alexander and Tomlinson were getting all the goal line touches for their teams. The league has changed so much so that the ball is getting thrown more and more which ultimately limits the running backs chances of scoring.
2005 Shaun Alexander: 1880 yards, 5.1 average, 27 touchdowns
2006 LaDainlian Tomlinson: 1815 yards, 5.2 average, 28 touchdowns
2012 Adrian Peterson: 2025 yards, 6.0 average, 12 touchdowns*
*projected
All three of these players deserve serious consideration for the MVP award. Each of them has been instrumental in their team’s success; Manning has guided a new team to a division title and a playoff berth, Brady has done the same with the Patriots and Peterson has been the workhorse in Minnesota that has kept the Vikings relevant come seasons end.
Of the three, the single biggest impact player for their team is hands down Adrian Peterson. The Broncos have shown that they were capable of winning without Manning at quarterback as evidenced by last season’s playoff run. This season their defense is superb and the AFC West division is weak enough that the Bronco’s likely could have won it even without Manning.
Tom Brady had himself another solid year under center, he took care of the football, passed for big yardage and captained the highest scoring offense in the league. Downfall for Brady is the same as it is for Manning; the division competition is terrible. Could the Patriots have won the AFC East without Brady at quarterback? Probably yes. Would it have been as exciting and as high scoring? Definitely not.
The most valuable player to his team is without a doubt Adrian Peterson. The physical demands on a running back far outweigh that of a quarterback. The fact that Peterson played every game at a gruelling position and still succeeded when every opposing player and coach knew full well he was going to be running the ball 20-30 times a game is remarkable. Peterson led the league in rushing yards by a huge margin, was tops in rushing yards per game average with a margin of victory of over 25 yards per game, he was second in the league in rushing touchdowns and most importantly he took a three win team and turned them around to a nine win team heading into the final week looking at securing a playoff spot.
It would seem that picking a quarterback for MVP is the sexy thing to do and both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are easy picks for the award. The right pick and most deserving choice is Adrian Peterson. I hope that the Associated Press voters get it right this season and don’t get too swayed by Manning’s comeback. Feel free to give Manning the comeback player of the year award and trumpet his efforts there; keep the MVP award for the most valuable player, not the one with the most compelling story.