2013 Fantasy Football: Andre Johnson Regression?

By Matt Mills on Friday, February 8th 2013
2013 Fantasy Football: Andre Johnson Regression?

Coming in to the 2012 NFL season, you would have been hard-pressed to find a fantasy football "expert" who was advocating targeting Andre Johnson, myself included.  It seemed that no matter what outlet you read, all anyone wanted to talk about was Johnson's 33 receptions and 492 yards in 2011 and how he was regressing to a point where he was no longer considered a top fantasy football wide receiver.

2003: 66 receptions, 976 yards and 4 touchdowns

2004: 79 receptions, 1,142 yards and 6 touchdowns

2005: 63 receptions, 688 yards and 2 touchdowns *

2006: 103 receptions, 1,147 yards and 5 touchdowns

2007: 60 receptions, 851 yards and 8 touchdowns *

2008: 115 receptions, 1,575 yards and 8 touchdowns

2009: 101 receptions, 1,569 yards and 9 touchdowns

2010: 86 receptions, 1,216 yards and 8 touchdowns *

2011: 33 receptions, 492 yards and 2 touchdowns *

2012: 112 receptions, 1,598 yards and 4 touchdowns

 

Part of the reason that people were predicting such doom and gloom for 'Optimus Prime' is the belief that he isn't always able to stay on the field due to injuries.  While he is banged up slightly more than most of the other big-name receivers, the fact of the matter is that Andre has played less than 13 games in his ten-year career only twice.  It's perplexes me how someone could look at his stats and come to the conclusion that Johnson is regressing.

The man has had four seasons of over 100 receptions (and another 86-reception season in which he only played 13 games).  He's also had six seasons of over 1,140 yards and has only had two seasons of less than 14 yards per catch.  As if that isn't enough evidence to debunk the myth that Andre Johnson is still an elite fantasy football receiver, Johnson finished 7th in total fantasy points among receivers in standard scoring formats, despite only finding the end zone four times.

If you're going to criticize Andre, the only area where it would be valid is when it comes to touchdowns.  It's no secret that Johnson has never had a season with double-digit touchdowns.  However, that is something that has been the case since his rookie season.  If you're drafting him and expecting him to give you a touchdown in more games than he doesn't, that's on you for not doing your homework.

Blind player comparisons are always fun to look at, so let's do just that:

 

2012

Player A: 92 receptions, 1,382 yards

Player B: 112 receptions, 1,598 yards

Player C: 118 receptions, 1,508 yards

Player D: 97 receptions, 1,350 yards

 

The last three FULL SEASONS worth of games for each player

Player A: 296 receptions, 4,976 yards

Player B: 328 receptions, 4,742 yards

If this weren't at the bottom of a column in which I've just gave my best case as to why Andre Johnson is still an elite fantasy football receiver, and if I hadn't already gave you Johnson's 2012 statistics, I'd be willing to bet that very few people would have guessed that Player B (in both scenarios) is, indeed, Andre.  As you can see, his production this past season is right on par, if not better than Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green.

How many of you knew that Player A in the second scenario is the Detroit Lions all-world receiver Calvin Johnson?
I used that stat, not to say that Andre is better than 'Megatron', but to point out that when it comes to anything a receiver does other than finding the end zone, Johnson is still right up there with the best.

As far as I'm concerned, the real question when it comes to the Houston Texans and the question marks they may have going forward lies squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Matt Schaub.

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